European scenarios for future biological invasions

1. Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. 2. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). 3. We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. 4. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. 5. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Therapeutic hypothermia for severe adult Herpes simplex virus encephalitis

Despite antiviral treatment and advances in critical care, the Herpes simplex encephalitis (HSE) still has a poor outcome in a significant portion of patients. In severe cases of HSE, reduced carbon dioxide reactivity is usually present and these patients don't respond to the usual treatment of brain edema and intracranial hypertension. We present case series of patients with severe form of HSE treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and describe in detail the indications, methods, and the rationale for its use. In this case series, patients presented with severely impaired consciousness and very high predicted death rate as measured by Glasgow coma scale and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score respectively. According to our findings, TH in carefully selected patients with HSE holds promise as an adjunctive to the antiviral treatment

Acute motor axonal neuropathy associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza A infection

BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) is a well known entity that has many infectious agents reported as antecedent events. The spectrum of GBS includes acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP), acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN), acute motor sensory axonal neuropathy (AMSAN), and some other variants like Miller-Fisher syndrome (MFS). ----- METHODS: Patient with AMAN variant of GBS after severe bilateral pneumonia and ARDS due to the novel pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus is presented. ----- RESULTS: 28-year-old white female was admitted to our Intensive Care Unit during the influenza pandemic because of severe ARDS due to bilateral pneumonia. The course of the disease was complicated with the new onset tetraplegia due to the AMAN variant of GBS. Treatment with plasma exchange was conducted and the patient had satisfactory recovery. ----- CONCLUSION: We report a case of AMAN variant of GBS associated with proven H1N1 influenza A infection. This virus has not been reported previously as the agent of antecedent infection that induced this disorder. Risk factors for other causes of ICU neuromuscular weakness are usually present in the ICU patients and should not be the reason for reluctance in active quest for GBS. Once the diagnosis of GBS is established or suspected the treatment with plasma exchange or intravenous immune globulin is indicated

Prospective observational cohort study of cerebrovascular CO2 reactivity in patients with inflammatory CNS diseases

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of cerebrovascular CO(2) reactivity (CO(2) R) in the course and outcome of inflammatory central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Sixty-eight patients with inflammatory CNS diseases and 30 healthy volunteers were included in this prospective observational cohort study. The observational period was between January 2005 and May 2009. The CO(2) R was measured by transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasound using the breath-holding method. We compared patients with normal CO(2) R (breath-holding index [BHI(m)] ≥ 1.18 = BHI(N) group) with patients who showed impaired CO(2) R (BHI(m) < 1.18 = BHI(R) group). We also analyzed the association of impaired CO(2) R with the etiology, severity, and outcome of disease. When compared to the BHI(N) group, the patients from the BHI(R) group were older, had a heavier consciousness disturbance, experienced more frequent respiratory failure, and, subsequently, had worse outcomes. There were no fatalities among the 28 patients in the BHI(N) group. The comparison of subjects with bacterial and non-bacterial meningitis revealed no significant differences. The unfavorable outcome of disease (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS] score 1-3) was significantly more common in subjects with impaired CO(2) R (62.5% vs. 10.7%). Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to establish the prognostic value of BHI(m). The outcome variable was unfavorable outcome (GOS 1-3), while the independent variables were age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, and BHI(m). The age and BHI(m) showed the strongest influence on disease outcome. A decrease of BHI(m) for each 0.1 unit increased the risk of unfavorable outcome by 17%. Our study emphasizes the importance of CO(2) R assessment in patients with inflammatory CNS diseases

Moraxella lacunata: a rare cause of infective endocarditis

We describe the first case of Moraxella lacunata definite native valve endocarditis in a patient with previously normal mitral valves. The disease was complicated with embolizations of the brain and spleen. After 6 weeks of antimicrobial treatment, valvular replacement was performed. The clinical course and diagnostic findings suggest that Moraxella lacunata possesses high aggressiveness leading to progressive valvular destruction and embolizations

Ischemic stroke associated with adenoviral infection in a 4-year-old boy

We present a case of childhood arterial ischemic stroke associated with proven adenoviral upper respiratory tract infection in a previously healthy 4-year-old boy. Adenoviral meningitis and encephalitis have been reported repeatedly, thus confirming the neuroinvasive capability of these viruses. However, an association between adenoviral infection and arterial ischemic stroke has not been described thus far. HIV and varicella zoster virus are the only microorganisms that have been consistently associated with arterial ischemic stroke in the absence of acute central nervous system infection. In HIV-infected individuals ischemic stroke can be caused by vasculitis and hypercoagulability. Granulomatous arteritis of the vessel wall causes post-varicella cerebral infarction and ischemic stroke after herpes zoster ophthalmicus. We suggest that in our patient a post-varicella cerebral infarction-like mechanism of adenoviral spread to the affected artery wall occurred through the ophthalmic branch of the trigeminal nerve. Adenoviruses are neuroinvasive and inflamed conjunctiva might have permitted introduction of the virus into ophthalmic nerve tissue. In consequence, the stenotic lesion of the artery might have been induced by the presence of adenovirus and the subsequent inflammatory reaction. We recommend a prompt quest for adenoviral infection in all previously healthy children with fever and clinical presentation compatible with ischemic stroke, because timely diagnosis and treatment could improve the outcome and hasten neurological recovery

Intensive care unit patients with lower respiratory tract nosocomial infections: The ENIRRIs project

The clinical course of intensive care unit (ICU) patients may be complicated by a large spectrum of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), defined by specific epidemiological, clinical and microbiological aspects. A European network for ICU-related respiratory infections (ENIRRIs), supported by the European Respiratory Society, has been recently established, with the aim at studying all respiratory tract infective episodes except community-acquired ones. A multicentre, observational study is in progress, enrolling more than 1000 patients fulfilling the clinical, biochemical and radiological findings consistent with a LRTI. This article describes the methodology of this study. A specific interest is the clinical impact of non- ICU-acquired nosocomial pneumonia requiring ICU admission, non-ventilator-associated LRTIs occurring in the ICU, and ventilator-associated tracheobronchitis. The clinical meaning of microbiologically negative infectious episodes and specific details on antibiotic administration modalities, dosages and duration are also highlighted. Recently released guidelines address many unresolved questions which might be answered by such large-scale observational investigations. In light of the paucity of data regarding such topics, new interesting information is expected to be obtained from our network research activities, contributing to optimisation of care for critically ill patients in the ICU. © ERS 2017