Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail

Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as the vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor mass contents and precipitation variables. In particular, the uncertainty in the fall velocities of graupel and hail account for more than 65 % of the variance of all considered precipitation variables and for 30 %–90 % of the variance of the integrated hydrometeor mass contents. In contrast, variations in the environmental parameters – the range of which is limited to represent model uncertainty – mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates

High pressure chemical reactivity and structural study of the Na-P and Li-P systems

Pressure enables the synthesis of (Na/Li)3P compounds at RT bypassing established chemical methods while at higher pressure, both undergo a pressure-induced phase transition.</p

High pressure chemical reactivity and structural study of the Na-P and Li-P systems

Pressure enables the synthesis of (Na/Li)3P compounds at RT bypassing established chemical methods while at higher pressure, both undergo a pressure-induced phase transition.</p

Using Emulators to Understand the Sensitivity of Deep Convective Clouds and Hail to Environmental Conditions

This study aims to identify model parameters describing atmospheric conditions such as wind shear and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds. In an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model including a two-moment microphysics scheme we use the approach of statistical emulation to allow for a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space, which enables a comprehensive sensitivity analysis. We analyze the impact of six uncertain input parameters on cloud properties (vertically integrated content of six hydrometeor classes), precipitation, and the size distribution of hail. Furthermore, we investigate whether the sensitivities are robust for different trigger mechanisms of convection. We find that the uncertainties of most cloud and precipitation outputs are dominated by the uncertainty in the temperature profile and the CCN concentration while the contributions of other input parameters to the uncertainties may vary. The temperature profile is also an important factor in determining the size distribution of surface hail. We also notice that the sensitivities of cloud water and hail to the CCN concentration depend on environmental conditions. Our results show that depending on the choice of the trigger mechanism, the contribution of the input parameters to the uncertainty varies, which means that studies with different trigger mechanisms might not be comparable. Overall, the emulator approach appears to be a powerful tool for the analysis of complex weather prediction models in an idealized setup

Global parameter search reveals design principles of the mammalian circadian clock

Background: Virtually all living organisms have evolved a circadian (~24 hour) clock that controls physiological and behavioural processes with exquisite precision throughout the day/night cycle. The suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), which generates these ~24 h rhythms in mammals, consists of several thousand neurons. Each neuron contains a gene-regulatory network generating molecular oscillations, and the individual neuron oscillations are synchronised by intercellular coupling, presumably via neurotransmitters. Although this basic mechanism is currently accepted and has been recapitulated in mathematical models, several fundamental questions about the design principles of the SCN remain little understood. For example, a remarkable property of the SCN is that the phase of the SCN rhythm resets rapidly after a 'jet lag' type experiment, i.e. when the light/ dark (LD) cycle is abruptly advanced or delayed by several hours. Results: Here, we describe an extensive parameter optimization of a previously constructed simplified model of the SCN in order to further understand its design principles. By examining the top 50 solutions from the parameter optimization, we show that the neurotransmitters' role in generating the molecular circadian rhythms is extremely important. In addition, we show that when a neurotransmitter drives the rhythm of a system of coupled damped oscillators, it exhibits very robust synchronization and is much more easily entrained to light/dark cycles. We were also able to recreate in our simulations the fast rhythm resetting seen after a 'jet lag' type experiment. Conclusion: Our work shows that a careful exploration of parameter space for even an extremely simplified model of the mammalian clock can reveal unexpected behaviours and non-trivial predictions. Our results suggest that the neurotransmitter feedback loop plays a crucial role in the robustness and phase resetting properties of the mammalian clock, even at the single neuron level

RT-qPCR reveals opsin gene upregulation associated with age and sex in guppies (Poecilia reticulata) - a species with color-based sexual selection and 11 visual-opsin genes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>PCR-based surveys have shown that guppies (<it>Poecilia reticulata</it>) have an unusually large visual-opsin gene repertoire. This has led to speculation that opsin duplication and divergence has enhanced the evolution of elaborate male coloration because it improves spectral sensitivity and/or discrimination in females. However, this conjecture on evolutionary connections between opsin repertoire, vision, mate choice, and male coloration was generated with little data on gene expression. Here, we used RT-qPCR to survey visual-opsin gene expression in the eyes of males, females, and juveniles in order to further understand color-based sexual selection from the perspective of the visual system.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Juvenile and adult (male and female) guppies express 10 visual opsins at varying levels in the eye. Two opsin genes in juveniles, <it>SWS2B </it>and <it>RH2-2</it>, accounted for >85% of all visual-opsin transcripts in the eye, excluding <it>RH1</it>. This relative abundance (RA) value dropped to about 65% in adults, as <it>LWS-A180 </it>expression increased from approximately 3% to 20% RA. The juvenile-to-female transition also showed <it>LWS-S180 </it>upregulation from about 1.5% to 7% RA. Finally, we found that expression in guppies' <it>SWS2-LWS </it>gene cluster is negatively correlated with distance from a candidate locus control region (LCR).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Selective pressures influencing visual-opsin gene expression appear to differ among age and sex. <it>LWS </it>upregulation in females is implicated in augmenting spectral discrimination of male coloration and courtship displays. In males, enhanced discrimination of carotenoid-rich food and possibly rival males are strong candidate selective pressures driving <it>LWS </it>upregulation. These developmental changes in expression suggest that adults possess better wavelength discrimination than juveniles. Opsin expression within the <it>SWS2-LWS </it>gene cluster appears to be regulated, in part, by a common LCR. Finally, by comparing our RT-qPCR data to MSP data, we were able to propose the first opsin-to-λ_maxassignments for all photoreceptor types in the cone mosaic.</p

The Perils of Picky Eating: Dietary Breadth Is Related to Extinction Risk in Insectivorous Bats

Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN) rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above) are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page

Does the Precision of a Biological Clock Depend upon Its Period? Effects of the Duper and tau Mutations in Syrian Hamsters

Mutations which alter the feedback loops that generate circadian rhythms may provide insight into their insensitivity to perturbation robustness) and their consistency of period (precision). I examined relationships between endogenous period, activity and rest (τDD, α and ρ) in Syrian hamsters using two different mutations, duper and tau, both of which speed up the circadian clock. I generated 8 strains of hamsters that are homozygous or heterozygous for the tau, duper, and wild type alleles in all combinations. The endogenous period of activity onsets among these strains ranged from 17.94+0.04 to 24.13±0.04 h. Contrary to predictions, the variability of period was unrelated to its absolute value: all strains showed similar variability of τDD when activity onsets and acrophase were used as phase markers. The τDD of activity offsets was more variable than onsets but also differed little between genotypes. Cycle variation and precision were not correlated with τDD within any strain, and only weakly correlated when all strains are considered together. Only in animals homozygous for both mutations (super duper hamsters) were cycle variation and precision reduced. Rhythm amplitude differed between strains and was positively correlated with τDD and precision. All genotypes showed negative correlations between α and ρ. This confirms the expectation that deviations in the duration of subjective day and night should offset one another in order to conserve circadian period, even though homeostatic maintenance of energy reserves predicts that longer intervals of activity or rest would be followed by longer durations of rest or activity. Females consistently showed greater variability of the period of activity onset and acrophase, and of α, but variability of the period of offset differed between sexes only in super duper hamsters. Despite the differences between genotypes in τDD, ρ was consistently more strongly correlated with the preceding than the succeeding α