2,439 research outputs found
A Diffusion Approximation to the Markov Chains Model of the Financial Market and the Expected Riskless Profit Under Selling of Call and Put Options
A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the stock price evolution is described by a homogeneous Markov chain. In the focus of attention is the expected value of the guaranteed profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the stock price are bounded. The suggested diffusion approximation for the Markov chain allows establishing a convenient approximate formula for the studied characteristic.Ergodic and irreducible Markov chains, Stationary distribution, Local limit theorem, Upper hedge, Upper rational price
A Diffusion Approximation for the Riskless Profit Under Selling of Discrete Time Call Options. Non-identically Distributed Jumps
A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the relative jumps of the risky security price are independent non-identically distributed random variables. In the focus of attention is the expected non-risky profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the stock price are bounded while the investor follows the upper hedge. The considered discrete time model is approximated by a continuous time model that generalizes the classical geometrical Brownian motion.Asymptotic uniformity, Local limit theorem, Volatility
The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.
We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of mortality. We found a V-like relationship between mortality and temperature, with an optimum temperature value (e.g., average temperature with lowest mortality rate) of 16.5 degrees C for total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, and mortality among those [Greater and equal to] 65 year of age. For mortality due to malignant neoplasms and mortality in the youngest age group, the optimum temperatures were 15.5 degrees C and 14.5 degrees C, respectively. For temperatures above the optimum, mortality increased by 0.47, 1.86, 12.82, and 2.72% for malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases, and total mortality, respectively, for each degree Celsius increase above the optimum in the preceding month. For temperatures below the optimum, mortality increased 0.22, 1.69, 5.15, and 1.37%, respectively, for each degree Celsius decrease below the optimum in the preceding month. Mortality increased significantly during all of the heat waves studied, and the elderly were most effected by extreme heat. The heat waves led to increases in mortality due to all of the selected causes, especially respiratory mortality. Average total excess mortality during the heat waves studied was 12.1%, or 39.8 deaths/day. The average excess mortality during the cold spells was 12.8% or 46.6 deaths/day, which was mostly attributable to the increase in cardiovascular mortality and mortality among the elderly. The results concerning the forward displacement of deaths due to heat waves were not conclusive. We found no cold-induced forward displacement of deaths
Proyecto de colaboración hispano-alemán en torno a la introducción de la neolitización en las tierras del interior penínsular: planteamiento y primeros resultados
Trends in mortality by labour market position around retirement ages in three European countries with different welfare regimes
<p>Objectives: In the face of economic downturn and increasing life expectancy, many industrial nations are adopting a policy of postponing the retirement age. However, questions still remain around the consequence of working longer into old age. We examine mortality by work status around retirement ages in countries with different welfare regimes; Finland (social democratic), Turin (Italy; conservative), and England and Wales (liberal).</p>
<p>Methods: Death rates and rate ratios (RRs) (reference rates = ‘in-work’), 1970 s–2000 s, were estimated for those aged 45–64 years using the England and Wales longitudinal study, Turin longitudinal study, and the Finnish linked register study.</p>
<p>Results: Mortality of the not-in-work was consistently higher than the in-work. Death rates for the not-in-work were lowest in Turin and highest in Finland. Rate ratios were smallest in Turin (RR men 1972–76 1.73; 2002–06 1.63; women 1.22; 1.68) and largest in Finland (RR men 1991–95 3.03; 2001–05 3.80; women 3.62; 4.11). Unlike RRs for men, RRs for women increased in every country (greatest in Finland).</p>
<p>Conclusions: These findings signal that overall, employment in later life is associated with lower mortality, regardless of welfare regime.</p>
The Analysis of Multijet Events Produced at High Energy Hadron Colliders
We define and discuss a set of (4N - 4) parameters that can be used to
analyse events in which N jets have been produced in high energy hadron-hadron
collisions. These multijet variables are the multijet mass and (4N - 5)
independent dimensionless parameters. To illustrate the use of the variables
QCD predictions are presented for events with up to five jets produced at the
Fermilab Tevatron Proton-Antiproton Collider. These QCD predictions are
compared with the predictions of a model in which multijet events uniformly
populate the N-body phase-space
Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from Three Case Studies
Investing efficiently in future research to improve policy decisions is an
important goal. Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) can be used to
select the specific design and sample size of a proposed study by assessing the
benefit of a range of different studies. Estimating EVSI with the standard
nested Monte Carlo algorithm has a notoriously high computational burden,
especially when using a complex decision model or when optimizing over study
sample sizes and designs. Therefore, a number of more efficient EVSI
approximation methods have been developed. However, these approximation methods
have not been compared and therefore their relative advantages and
disadvantages are not clear. A consortium of EVSI researchers, including the
developers of several approximation methods, compared four EVSI methods using
three previously published health economic models. The examples were chosen to
represent a range of real-world contexts, including situations with multiple
study outcomes, missing data, and data from an observational rather than a
randomized study. The computational speed and accuracy of each method were
compared, and the relative advantages and implementation challenges of the
methods were highlighted. In each example, the approximation methods took
minutes or hours to achieve reasonably accurate EVSI estimates, whereas the
traditional Monte Carlo method took weeks. Specific methods are particularly
suited to problems where we wish to compare multiple proposed sample sizes,
when the proposed sample size is large, or when the health economic model is
computationally expensive. All the evaluated methods gave estimates similar to
those given by traditional Monte Carlo, suggesting that EVSI can now be
efficiently computed with confidence in realistic examples.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure
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