Linking models in land use simulation - Application of the Land Use Scanner to changes in agricultural area

When we model land use change, we utilize – consciously or unconsciously – other models as well. The variables we regard as exogenous are often generated endogenously by a different model. We are not always fully aware of the implications of this for our modelling exercises. The model which generated the demographic growth that we use in forecasting the need for residential space may have used assumptions that are at variance with ours. The model resulting in claims for agricultural land may have already taken competing claims into account – whereas our land use model may simulate this competition all over again. The data used for different models may not be compatible. Conversely, our land use simulation exercises can also be used by others as input. A model for the agricultural sector, for instance, must consider the constraint of available land – especially whether the land required is available in a particular area which is regarded as optimal for a particular production line. Land use models can provide that input. The Agricultural Economics Research Institute in The Hague, uses a number of models at various spatial levels – from the individual farm to the global economy – and for different purposes. Recently, the linkages between these models have received more attention, which also lays bare the compatibility problems between them. In order to examine both the possibilities and the problems inherent in these linkages, a research project on this ‘model train’ has been undertaken. Based on two opposing scenarios prepared by the Dutch Central Planning Bureau, the study calculates the long-term consequences of these scenarios: beginning with a general equilibrium model at global level (GTAP) through a sectoral model at national and regional scale - the Dutch Regionalized Agricultural Model (DRAM) – to a model assessing ecological effects in a local area (SOMMA). The Land Use Scanner, a land use information system and simulation model for the Netherlands, has been used to predict changes in the agricultural area for the regions used in DRAM. The land claims, which are an exogenous variable in the Land Use Scanner, were generated from projections of future population and GDP, on the basis of their historical correlation with land use. This project has led to interesting insights into the problems of linking models. It is hoped that these insights will help to improve the models we use – including land use models. The paper highlights the importance of making modelling assumptions explicit, such that the outcome of one model can indeed be a useful input into another one. The integrated modelling approach yields more consistent projections of land use.

Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models

Analyses of the impact of European policies on agricultural change are most often based on agricultural sector models. Such models have their limitations: they cannot specify the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and their spatial dimension is usually limited. Land use simulation models, on the other hand, usually depend on other models for assessing the demand for land. The consistency of those models with the assumptions and databases of the land use model is often not examined. This article reports on a research project where the links between a macroeconomic model, an agricultural sector model and a land use model were explicitly explored in order to arrive at a consistent model chain. This integrated framework was put to the test by applying it to two contrasting scenarios, which compare impact on agricultural incomes, land use and land management.land use, CAP, agricultural policy analyses, Netherlands, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Seismic imaging in Long Valley, California, by surface and borehole techniques: An investigation of active tectonics

The search for silicic magma in the upper crust is converging on the Long Valley Caldera of eastern California, where several lines of geophysical evidence show that an active magma chamber exists at mid‐to lower‐crustal depths. There are also other strong indications that magma may be present at depths no greater than about 5 km below the surface. In this paper, we review the history of the search for magma at Long Valley. We also present the preliminary results from a coordinated suite of seismic experiments, conducted by a consortium of institutions in the summer and fall of 1984, that were designed to refine our knowledge of the upper extent of the magma chamber. Major funding for the experiments was provided by the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and by the Magma Energy Technology Program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a program to develop the technology necessary to extract energy directly from crustal magma. Additional funding came from DOE's Office of Basic Energy Sciences and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Also, because extensive use was made of a 0.9‐km‐deep well lent to us by Santa Fe Geothermal, Inc., the project was conducted partly under the auspices of the Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CSDP). As an integrated seismic study of the crust within the caldera that involved the close cooperation of a large number of institutions, the project was moreover viewed as a prototype for future scientific experiments to be conducted under the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL). The experiment thus represented a unique blend of CSDP and PASSCAL methods, and achieved goals consistent with both programs

Grain legume production and use in European agricultural systems

ISBN(print) 978-0-12-812419-2; Editor DL SparksThere is a great demand for high-protein materials for livestock feed in Europe and European agriculture has a deficit of about 70% high-protein materials of which 87% is met by imported soybean and soy meal. This reflects the fact that grain legumes are currently under represented in European agriculture and produced on only 1.5% of the arable land in Europe compared with 14.5%on aworldwide basis. Several grain legumes have the potential to replace at least some of the soya currently used in the diets of monogastric animals, ruminants, and fish. There are also opportunities for greater use of legumes in new foods. Here we review the contribution of ecosystem services by grain legumes in European agriculture startingwith provisioningservices in termsof food and feed and moving on to the contribution theymake to both regulating and supporting serviceswhich are in part due to the diversity which these crops bring to cropping systems. We explore the need to understand grain legume production on the time scale of a rotation rather than a cropping season in order to value and manage the agronomic challenges of weed, pests, and diseases alongside themaintenance or improvement of soil structure, soil organic matter, and nutrient cycling. A review of policy interventions to support grain legumes reveals that until very recently these have failed to make a difference in Europe. We contrast the European picture with the interventions that have allowed the development of grain legume production in both Canada and Australia. Whether farmers choose to grow more legumes will depend on market opportunities, the development of supply chains, and policy support aswell as technicalimprovementsof grainlegumeproductionsuchas breeding of new varieties and management development to improve yield stability. However, to really increase the production of grain legumes in Europe, the issues are far more wide reaching than agronomy or subsidy and require a fundamental rethinking of value chains to move grain legumes from being niche products to mainstream commodities.Peer reviewe

Seismic imaging in Long Valley, California, by surface and borehole techniques: An investigation of active tectonics

The search for silicic magma in the upper crust is converging on the Long Valley Caldera of eastern California, where several lines of geophysical evidence show that an active magma chamber exists at mid‐to lower‐crustal depths. There are also other strong indications that magma may be present at depths no greater than about 5 km below the surface. In this paper, we review the history of the search for magma at Long Valley. We also present the preliminary results from a coordinated suite of seismic experiments, conducted by a consortium of institutions in the summer and fall of 1984, that were designed to refine our knowledge of the upper extent of the magma chamber. Major funding for the experiments was provided by the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and by the Magma Energy Technology Program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a program to develop the technology necessary to extract energy directly from crustal magma. Additional funding came from DOE's Office of Basic Energy Sciences and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Also, because extensive use was made of a 0.9‐km‐deep well lent to us by Santa Fe Geothermal, Inc., the project was conducted partly under the auspices of the Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CSDP). As an integrated seismic study of the crust within the caldera that involved the close cooperation of a large number of institutions, the project was moreover viewed as a prototype for future scientific experiments to be conducted under the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL). The experiment thus represented a unique blend of CSDP and PASSCAL methods, and achieved goals consistent with both programs

What is Sustainability?

Sustainability as a policy concept has its origin in the Brundtland Report of 1987. That document was concerned with the tension between the aspirations of mankind towards a better life on the one hand and the limitations imposed by nature on the other hand. In the course of time, the concept has been re-interpreted as encompassing three dimensions, namely social, economic and environmental. The paper argues that this change in meaning (a) obscures the real contradiction between the aims of welfare for all and environmental conservation; (b) risks diminishing the importance of the environmental dimension; and (c) separates social from economic aspects, which in reality are one and the same. It is proposed instead to return to the original meaning, where sustainability is concerned with the well-being of future generations and in particular with irreplaceable natural resources—as opposed to the gratification of present needs which we call well-being. A balance needs to be found between those two, but not by pretending they are three sides of the same coin. Although we use up natural resources at the expense of future generations, we also generate capital (including knowledge) which raises future well-being. A major question is to what extent the one compensates for the other. This debate centres around the problem of substitutability, which has been cast into a distinction between ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability. It is argued that these two do not need to be in opposition but complement one another

What is Sustainability?

Sustainability as a policy concept has its origin in the Brundtland Report of 1987. That document was concerned with the tension between the aspirations of mankind towards a better life on the one hand and the limitations imposed by nature on the other hand. In the course of time, the concept has been re-interpreted as encompassing three dimensions, namely social, economic and environmental. The paper argues that this change in meaning (a) obscures the real contradiction between the aims of welfare for all and environmental conservation; (b) risks diminishing the importance of the environmental dimension; and (c) separates social from economic aspects, which in reality are one and the same. It is proposed instead to return to the original meaning, where sustainability is concerned with the well-being of future generations and in particular with irreplaceable natural resources—as opposed to the gratification of present needs which we call well-being. A balance needs to be found between those two, but not by pretending they are three sides of the same coin. Although we use up natural resources at the expense of future generations, we also generate capital (including knowledge) which raises future well-being. A major question is to what extent the one compensates for the other. This debate centres around the problem of substitutability, which has been cast into a distinction between ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability. It is argued that these two do not need to be in opposition but complement one another.sustainability; well-being; welfare

POLICY IMPACTS ON LEGUME-BASED AGRICULTURE AT EU LEVEL

The impact of policy scenarios on economic welfare and the environment depends to a large extent on their direct effect on land use: a strong increase in the cultivation of legumes means a significant environmental impact and a sizeable impact on other variables such as farmers’ incomes, cost to taxpayers and imports and exports. The impact of realistic policy alternatives aimed at promoting legumes is likely to be limited. In particular, they may not be able to reverse the trend in the decline of grain legumes