Big Data, Small Credit: The Digital Revolution and Its Impact on Emerging Market Consumers

This research report sheds light on a new cadre of technology companies who are disrupting the credit scoring business in emerging markets. Using non-financial data -- such as social media activity and mobile phone usage patterns -- complex algorithms and big data analytics are forever changing the economics of how we identify, score, and underwrite credit to consumers who have been invisible to lenders until now

Frontier Capital: Early Stage Investing for Financial Returns and Social Impact in Emerging Markets

This report outlines the importance and promise of serving low- and lower-middle-income (LMI) populations -- essentially, the groups situated between the very bottom of the pyramid and the existing middle class. As we detail herein, LMI populations have huge unmet needs and face quite a bit of instability -- challenges that can be addressed by innovative business models. We believe companies serving this demographic represent an under-tapped opportunity, both for financial returns and for outsized impact. The LMI segment represents a major market opportunity. For example, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the purchasing power of the LMI population is estimated at $405B. In South Asia, it is estimated at$483B

Psychological Well-Being in Childhood and Cardiometabolic Risk in Middle Adulthood: Findings From the 1958 British Birth Cohort

Childhood adversity is linked to poor cardiometabolic outcomes, but less is known about positive childhood factors. Using data from 4,007 members of the 1958 British Birth Cohort, we investigated whether children with greater psychological well-being had lower adulthood cardiometabolic risk. At age 11, participants wrote essays about their future. Two judges rated each essay for nine psychological well-being items (Finn’s r = .82–.91), which were combined into a standardized overall score (Cronbach’s α = .91). When participants reached age 45, nurses assessed their blood pressure, heart rate, lipids, glycosylated hemoglobin, fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein, which were standardized and summed for total cardiometabolic risk. Regressions indicated that children with greater psychological well-being had lower cardiometabolic risk (b = −0.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [−0.28, −0.006]): specifically, healthier total cholesterol (b = −0.04, 95% CI = [−0.07, −0.003]) and triglycerides (b = −0.06, 95% CI = [−0.09, −0.02]). Childhood psychological well-being may promote adulthood cardiometabolic health

The Association between Oxytocin and Social Capital

Background: Oxytocin is known to be related to social behaviors, including trust. However, few studies have investigated the association between oxytocin levels and social capital. Thus, we tested the hypothesis that endogenous oxytocin levels are positively associated with social capital. We also considered whether the association differed across gender because previous studies have shown differential effects of OT on social behaviors depending on gender. Methods: We recruited a convenience sample of 50 women and 31 men in Japan via community sampling from whom we obtained urine sample with which to measure oxytocin levels. Individual-level cognitive social capital (social trust and mutual aid) and structural social capital (community participation) were assessed using a questionnaire. We used multivariate regression, adjusted for covariates (age, number of children, self-rated health, and education), and stratified by gender to consider associations between oxytocin and social capital. Results: Among women, oxytocin was inversely associated with social trust and mutual aid (p<0.05). However, women participating in only 1 organization in the community showed higher oxytocin than women who participated in either no organizations (p<0.05) or 2 or more organization (i.e. inverse-U shape association). Among men, no association was observed between oxytocin and either form of cognitive and structural social capital. Conclusion: Women who perceived low cognitive social capital showed higher oxytocin levels, while structural social capital showed inverse-U shape association with oxytocin. No association between oxytocin and social capital was found among men. Further study is needed to elucidate why oxytocin was inversely associated with cognitive social capital only among women

Psychological well-being, cardiorespiratory fitness, and long-term survival

BACKGROUND: Psychological well-being is associated with mortality/survival. Although cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is one of the strongest predictors of mortality, studies examining the relationship between well-being and survival seldom account for the possible effects of CRF. PURPOSE: This study examined the independent associations of psychological well-being components (low level of negative emotion and high level of positive emotion) and CRF, as well as their combined effects, with survival. METHODS: Participants (N=4888) were examined in 1988-1997 and followed up for a median period of ∼15 years (212 deaths, 4.3%). CRF was assessed by a maximal exercise test on a treadmill. Low-level negative emotion was defined as the minimum score of the negative emotion subscale of the CES-D scale and high-level positive emotion as the maximum score of the positive emotion subscale. Results are presented as hazard ratios (95% CIs). Data were analyzed in 2009. RESULTS: After adjustment for a set of established risk factors, men and women with low levels of negative emotion had lower risk of death than those with higher levels of negative emotion, 0.66 (95% CI=0.50, 0.87). The association persisted after additional adjustment for CRF and positive emotion. High level of positive emotion was not associated with survival. A high level of CRF independently predicted lower risk of death, 0.54 (95% CI=0.37, 0.79), compared to a low level of CRF. The risk of death in participants with both a low level of negative emotion and a high level of CRF was 0.37 (95% CI=0.22, 0.63), compared to their peers with higher levels of negative emotion/low levels of CRF. CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of negative emotion and high levels of CRF are independent predictors of long-term survival in men and women. A strong combined effect was observed, as individuals with both a low level of negative emotion and a high level of CRF had a 63% lower risk of premature death than those with higher levels of negative emotion and a low level of CRF.This study was supported by NIH grants AG06945 and HL62508, and in part by an unrestricted research grant from The Coca-Cola Company. The study also was supported in part by Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Pioneer Portfolio (grant number 63597); the Spanish Ministry of Education (EX-2008-0641, EX-2007-1124); the Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research; and the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20090635)

Socioeconomic and Other Social Stressors and Biomarkers of Cardiometabolic Risk in Youth: A Systematic Review of Less Studied Risk Factors

Background: Socioeconomic disadvantage and other social stressors in childhood have been linked with cardiometabolic diseases in adulthood; however the mechanisms underlying these observed associations and the timing of their emergence are unclear. The aim of this review was to evaluate research that examined relationships between socioeconomic disadvantage and other social stressors in relation to less-studied cardiometabolic risk factors among youth, including carbohydrate metabolism-related factors, lipids, and central adiposity. Methods: We searched PubMed and ISI Web of Science to identify relevant publications between 2001 and 2013.Studies were selected based on 4 criteria: (1) the study examined an association between at least one social or economic stressor and one relevant outcome prior to age 21; (2) the sample originated from a high-income country; (3) the sample was not selected based on a health condition; and (4) a central aim was to evaluate the effect of the social or economic stressor on at least one relevant outcome. Abstracts were screened and relevant publications were obtained and evaluated for inclusion criteria. We abstracted data from selected articles, summarized them by exposures and outcomes, and assigned an evidence grade. Results: Our search identified 37 publications from 31 studies. Socioeconomic disadvantage was consistently associated with greater central adiposity. Research to date does not provide clear evidence of an association between childhood stressors and lipids or carbohydrate metabolism-related factors. Conclusions: This review demonstrates a paucity of research on the relationship of socioeconomic disadvantage and other social stressors to lipid and carbohydrate metabolism-related factors in youth. Accordingly, it is not possible to form strong conclusions, particularly with regard to stressors other than socioeconomic disadvantage. Findings are used to inform priorities for future research. An improved understanding of these pathways is critical for identifying novel prevention targets and intervention opportunities to protect the long-term health of children and adolescents

A Prospective Study of Positive Psychological Well-Being and Coronary Heart Disease

Objective: Research suggests that positive psychological well-being is associated with cardiovascular health. However, much of this research uses elderly samples and has not determined the pathways by which psychological well-being influences cardiovascular disease or whether effects are similar for men and women. This study investigates the association between two aspects of well-being (emotional vitality and optimism) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a sample of middle-aged men and women, and considers potential mediating factors. Method: Between 1991 and 1994, well-being and coronary risk factors were assessed among 7,942 individuals without a prior cardiovascular event from the Whitehall II cohort. Incident CHD (fatal CHD, first nonfatal myocardial infarction, or first definite angina) was tracked during 5 person-years of follow-up. Results: Positive psychological well-being was associated with reduced risk of CHD with an apparent threshold effect. Relative to people with the lowest levels of well-being, those with the highest levels had minimally adjusted hazard ratios of 0.74, 95% confidence interval [0.55, 0.98] for emotional vitality and 0.73, 95% confidence interval [0.54, 0.99] for optimism. Moreover, the association was strong for both genders and was only weakly attenuated when accounting for ill-being. Neither health-related behaviors nor biological factors explained these associations. Conclusions: Positive psychological well-being was associated with a modest, but consistent reduced risk of incident CHD. The relationship was comparable for men and women, and was maintained after controlling for cardiovascular risk factors and ill-being. Additional research is needed to identify underlying mechanisms and investigate whether interventions to increase well-being may enhance cardiovascular health

Sense of Purpose in Life and Five Health Behaviors in Older Adults

Accumulating evidence shows that a higher sense of purpose in life is associated with lower risk of chronic conditions and premature mortality. Health behaviors might partially explain these findings, however, the prospective association between sense of purpose and health behaviors is understudied. We tested whether a higher sense of purpose at baseline was associated with lower likelihood of developing unhealthy behaviors over time. Prospective data were from the Health and Retirement Study, a national sample of U.S. older adults. Our sample included 13,770 adults assessed up to five times across eight years. Among people who met recommended guidelines for a given health behavior outcome at baseline, those in the top versus lowest quartile of purpose in life had 24% lower likelihood of becoming physically inactive (95% CI: 0.68–0.85), 33% lower likelihood of developing sleep problems (95% CI: 0.58–0.79), and 22% lower likelihood of developing unhealthy body mass index (BMI) (95% CI: 0.69–0.87) in sociodemographic-adjusted models. Further there was a marginal reduction in smoking relapse (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.41–1.03) and no association with heavy alcohol use (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.81–1.29). Findings for physical inactivity, sleep problems, and unhealthy BMI remained evident after further adjusting for baseline health status and depression. Our results, suggest that a sense of purpose in life might emerge (with further research) as a valuable target to consider for interventions aimed at helping older adults maintain some health behaviors

Does life satisfaction reduce risk of incident hypertension and stroke? Evidence from the Whitehall II cohort

Background: Previous studies showed life satisfaction is related to reduced risk of coronary heart disease and diabetes, but its association with other cardiometabolic endpoints including hypertension and stroke remains unexplored. This study examined life satisfaction's prospective association with incident hypertension and stroke in middle-aged adults. Methods: At baseline (1985–1988), 6225 healthy British civil servants aged 35–55 from the Whitehall II cohort completed the validated Satisfaction with Life Scale and provided information regarding sociodemographics, a range of health-related factors, and psychological distress. Incident hypertension was ascertained according to clinic-derived measures of systolic or diastolic blood pressure of ≥140/90 mmHg, respectively, or self-reports of either physician-diagnosed hypertension or hypertensive medication use. Incident stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) were ascertained by self-reported physician diagnosis. Follow-up assessments occurred every 2–5 years through 2017. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of hypertension and stroke/TIA risk separately. Results: Over a 31-year follow-up, 2703 cases of hypertension and 370 cases of stroke/TIA occurred. Life satisfaction was not related to risk of developing hypertension but was associated with 12% decreased risk of stroke/TIA after controlling for sociodemographics, health status, and health behaviors (HRper 1-SD = 0.88; 95%CI = 0.79–0.98). However, the association was attenuated after adjustment for psychological distress. Conclusions: No robust associations were found between life satisfaction and incident hypertension and stroke/TIA, respectively, after accounting for well-established risk factors and psychological distress. More research is needed to understand why associations of life satisfaction with cardiometabolic health seem to vary across endpoints