Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace

Influence of Ceramic Coating on Mechanical Properties of Stainless Steel

Crystal structure and phase composition of stainless steel substrates (AISI 304 type) was studied and it was found that they adopted the cubic symmetry. The calculated elementary cell parameter for the mayor Fe-Ni phase (weight fraction 99%) was a = 3.593 Å, whereas the mean grain size was = 2932 Å. Morphology of the stainless steel substrate surface was studied with profilometry. Mechanical properties of the stainless steel substrates and stainless steel substrates coated with ceramic layer of barium strontium titanate were studied with microhardness tester. For measurements performed according to the Vickers method the average microhardness was found HV = 189 or HV = 186 for the “in-line” and “mapping” measurement pattern, respectively. The sol-gel method was used to coat the surface of the stainless steel substrate with a thin ceramic layer of the chemical composition Ba0.6 Sr0.4 TiO3 . It was found that the stainless steel substrate covered with sol-gel deposited ceramic coating exhibited the average hardness within the range HV = 217 up to HV = 235 for loading force F = 98 mN and F = 0.98 N, respectively. The Knopp method was also used and it was found that the stainless steel substrate with Ba0.6 Sr0.4 TiO3 coating exhibited hardness HK = 386