Spatial and chemical patterns of PM2.5 - differences between a maritime and an inland country

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model was used to calculate the mean annual concentration of PM2.5 at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km for the United Kingdom (UK) and Poland for the year 2007. The modelled average PM2.5 concentration is higher for Poland than the UK and amounts to 9.2 µg · m−3 and 5.6 µg · m−3, respectively. The highest concentrations concern London and coastal areas (due to the sea salt contribution) for the UK and urban agglomerations in the case of Poland. Maximum values occurring close to the UK coastline can reach 18 µg · m−3. The average contribution of natural particles amounts to 34 and 20% of total PM2.5 concentration, respectively for the UK and Poland. Among anthropogenic particles for both countries the highest contribution falls on secondary inorganic aerosols and the lowest contribution is for secondary organic aerosols

Comparison of spatial rainfall data calculated with a meteorological model and from interpolation of measurements - implications for FRAME modelled wet deposition

This work quantifies the differences between the two sources of spatial information of precipitation on FRAME modelled wet deposition of oxidised sulphur (SOx), nitrogen (NOy) and reduced nitrogen (NHx) for two years in an area of Poland. The model was run twice, first with precipitation dataset calculated with the WRF model (pWRF). The second run was based on interpolation of measured precipitation with kriging (pOK). SOx, NOy and NHx wet deposition calculated with pWRF precipitation gives lower country mean values if compared with pOK. The maximum values are higher for pWRF precipitation. Grid to grid correlation between pOK and pWRF modelled wet deposition is similar for both years, with the lowest values for NHx and the highest for SOx. The model-measurement agreement is better for the pOK FRAME run. The results show large uncertainties related with wet deposition modelling due to uncertainties in rainfall data

Modelling the contribution of SO2 and NOx emissions from international shipping to sulphur and oxidised nitrogen deposition in the United Kingdom

A statistical Lagrangian atmospheric transport model was used to generate annual maps of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen for the United Kingdom at a 5 x 5 km2 resolution for the year 2005 and to assess the contribution attributed to emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping. A future emissions scenario for the year 2020 was used to investigate changes in the relative contribution of shipping emissions. The results show that, if shipping emissions are assumed to increase at a rate of 2.5% per year, their relative contribution to total sulphur and oxidised nitrogen deposition are expected to increase from 15% and 12% respectively to 37% and 28% between 2005 and 2020. Enforcement of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) agreement to reduce the sulphur content in marine fuel to 0.5% was estimated to result in a 30% reduction in total sulphur deposition to the UK for the year 2020 compared to a business as usual scenario, with the result that the relative contribution from shipping to sulphur deposition in the UK would be reduced to 9% of the tota

The influence of long term trends in pollutant emissions on deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and exceedance of critical loads in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, as with other European countries, land-based emissions of NOX and SO2 have fallen significantly over the last few decades. SO2 emissions fell from a peak of 3185 Gg S in 1970 to 344 Gg S in 2005 and are forecast by business-as-usual emissions scenarios to fall to 172 Gg by 2020. NOX emissions were at a maximum of 951 Gg N in 1970 and fell to 378 by 2005 with a further decrease to 243 Gg N forecast by 2020. These large changes in emissions have not been matched by emissions changes for NH3 which decreased from 315 Gg N in 1990 to 259 in 2005 and are forecast to fall to 222 by 2020. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen deposition over the United Kingdom during a 15 year time period (1990-2005) and compared with measured deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium from the national monitoring network. Wet deposition of nitrogen and sulphur was found to decrease more slowly than the emissions reductions rate. This is attributed to a number of factors including increases in emissions from international shipping and changing rates of atmospheric oxidation. The modelled time series was extended to a 50 year period from 1970 to 2020. The modelled deposition of SOx, NOy and NHx to the UK was found to fall by 87%, 52% and 25% during this period. The percentage of the United Kingdom surface area for which critical loads are exceeded is estimated to fall from 85% in 1970 to 37% in 2020 for acidic deposition and from 73% to 49% for nutrient nitrogen deposition. The significant reduction in land emissions of SO2 and NOX focuses further attention in controlling emissions from international shipping. Future policies to control emissions of ammonia from agriculture will be required to effect further significant reductions in nitrogen deposition

Cechy rozmieszczenia sklepów w przestrzeni wielkomiejskiej na przykładzie Wrocławia - zastosowanie regresji ważonej geograficznie

The purpose of this study is to identify the applicability of the Geographically Weighted Re- gression for determination of relationships between the size of population and the distribution of shops in the urban space. The paper presents the analyzed dependencies and diversities of urban space on the example of Wroclaw. The study includes information concerning e.g.: location of shops, population density and cubic capacity of residential buildings. Theoretical census enumeration areas were used as spatial reference units. Using local statistics of Moran and Getis–Ord, patterns of local spatial dependencies were determined. Attempts were also made to identify determinants of shop distribution using global and spatial regression techniques – Geographically Weighted Regression

The effect of emission inventory on modelling of seasonal exposure metrics of particulate matter and ozone with the WRF-Chem model for Poland

In Poland, high concentrations of particulate matter (with a diameter smaller than 2.5 or 10 μm) exceeding the WHO threshold values are often measured in winter, while ozone (O"sub"3"/sub") concentrations are high in spring. In winter high PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are linked to high residential combustion and road transport. The main objective of this study was to assess performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model in reproducing observations for a period of 2017–2018 covering various meteorological conditions. We compare modelled and observed exposure metrics for PM2.5, PM10 and O"sub"3"/sub" for two sets of the WRF-Chem model runs: with coarse and fine resolution emission inventory (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection (CIEP), respectively). CIEP run reduces the negative bias of PM2.5 and PM10 and improves the model performance for number of days with exceedance of WHO (World Health Organization) threshold for PM2.5 and PM10 24-h mean concentration. High resolution emission inventory for primary aerosols helps to better distinguish polluted urban areas from non-urban ones. There are no large differences for the model performance for O"sub"3"/sub" and secondary inorganic aerosols, and high-resolution emission inventory does not improve the results in terms of 8-h rolling mean concentrations of ozone. Document type: Articl

FAKTENBLATT: Klimawandel, Luftverschmutzung und Ökosysteme im polnisch-sächsischen Grenzraum

Das Faktenblatt fasst die Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt »KLAPS – Klimawandel, Luftverschmutzung und Belastungsgrenzen von Ökosystemen im polnisch-sächsischen Grenzraum« zusammen. Dabei werden aktuelle und zukünftig mögliche klimatische und lufthygienische Trends sowie die Folgen des Klimawandels für verschiedene Zielgruppen aufgezeigt. Eine detaillierte Darstellung der Methodik und der Ergebnisse kann in den Projektberichten »Das Klima im polnisch-sächsischen Grenzraum« und »Klimaprojektionen, Luftverschmutzung und Belastungsgrenzen von Ökosystemen« nachgelesen werden. Redaktionsschluss: 05.01.201

Application of WRF-Chem to forecasting PM10 concentration over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one-way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The 48 hour forecasts were run for each day of the winter and summer period of 2014 and there is only a small decrease in model performance for winter with respect to forecast lead time. The model in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations for most of the stations. However, for some locations and specific episodes, the model performance is poor and the results cannot yet be used by official authorities. We argue that a higher resolution sector-based emission data will be helpful for this analysis in connection with a focus on planetary boundary layer processes in WRF-Chem and their impact on the initial distribution of emissions on both time and space

Comparison of the diagnostic value of histopathological examinations of miscarriage products after pharmacological induction of miscarriage and curettage

Objectives: For early miscarriage (pregnancy loss ≤ 12 weeks of gestation), two types of therapeutic treatment are offered (pharmacotherapy and curettage of the uterine cavity) depending on the presence and severity of clinical symptoms as well as patient choice. Our study aimed to assess the diagnostic value of the results of histopathological examinations of miscarriage products in relation to the administered treatments.  Material and methods: 850 medical records from patients diagnosed with missed miscarriage or empty gestational sac were analyzed retrospectively. Patients underwent surgical treatment or pharmacotherapy. Inefficacy of pharmacotherapy resulted in subsequent curettage. The results of histopathology were evaluated for their diagnostic value and classified: subgroup 1 — high value specimen (the studied specimen included fetal tissues, and villi), and subgroup 2 — no-diagnosis (the studied specimen included maternal tissues, autolyzed tissues, blood clots). Data were compared with chi-squared test. Differences was considered significant at p < 0.05.  Results: 1128 histopathological test results were analyzed; 569 (50.4%) were obtained during pharmacotherapy and 559 (49.6%) after curettage; out of the latter 497 after the initial pharmacotherapy and 62 after surgery. In the pharmacotherapy group, high value specimens comprised 231 cases (40.59%) while no diagnosis was obtained in 338 cases (59.4%). Considering specimens obtained in the course curettage, high value specimens were found in 364 cases (65.1%) while results that did not allow a diagnosis to be made were found in 195 cases (34.9%).  Conclusions: Tissue specimens of high diagnostic value are obtained significantly more often during surgical treatment of miscarriage than during pharmacotherapy

Application and evaluation of the WRF model for high-resolution forecasting of rainfall - a case study of SW Poland

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts at 10 km · 10 km and 2 km · 2 km spatial and one hour temporal resolution for the area of SW Poland. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing the WRF model precipitation with measurements gathered at a meteorological station operated by the University of Wrocław and 17 SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) sites for the period 03.03.2012–18.06.2012. The 2 km · 2 km domain is run with the KainFritsch parameterization convection, and, as a separate simulation, with deep convection explicitly resolved. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing the number of observed precipitation episodes, but the performance decreases with the forecast range and rainfall intensity. The Kain-Fritsch model runs show a significantly higher area covered with rainfall when compared to the simulations with deep convection explicitly resolved, and are biased high for both 2 km and 10 km domains. The model runs with convection explicitly resolved show higher values of Success Ratio, while the Kain-Fritsch based runs, both for 10 km and 2 km, have higher Probability of Detection. None of the tested model configurations was able to resolve a highly local episode of intensive rainfall observed in the vicinity of Wrocław on 03.05.2012