Quantifying Social Influence in an Online Cultural Market

We revisit experimental data from an online cultural market in which 14,000 users interact to download songs, and develop a simple model that can explain seemingly complex outcomes. Our results suggest that individual behavior is characterized by a two-step process–the decision to sample and the decision to download a song. Contrary to conventional wisdom, social influence is material to the first step only. The model also identifies the role of placement in mediating social signals, and suggests that in this market with anonymous feedback cues, social influence serves an informational rather than normative role

Initial choice of oral glucose-lowering medication for diabetes mellitus: A patient-centered comparative effectiveness study

IMPORTANCE: Although many classes of oral glucose-lowering medications have been approved for use, little comparative effectiveness evidence exists to guide initial selection of therapy for diabetes mellitus. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of initial oral glucose-lowering agent class on subsequent need for treatment intensification and 4 short-term adverse clinical events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study was a retrospective cohort study of patients who were fully insured members of Aetna (a large national health insurer) who had been prescribed an oral glucose-lowering medication from July 1, 2009, through June 30, 2013. Individuals newly prescribed an oral glucose-lowering agent who filled a second prescription for a medication in the same class and with a dosage at or above theWorld Health Organization's defined daily dose within 90 days of the end-of-day's supply of the first prescription were studied. Individuals with interim prescriptions for other oral glucose-lowering medications were excluded. EXPOSURES; Initiation of treatment with metformin, a sulfonylurea, a thiazolidinedione, or a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Time to addition of a second oral agent or insulin, each component separately, hypoglycemia, other diabetes-related emergency department visits, and cardiovascular events. RESULTS A total of 15 516 patients met the inclusion criteria, of whom 8964 (57.8%) started therapy with metformin. In unadjusted analyses, use of medications other than metformin was significantly associated with an increased risk of adding a second oral agent only, insulin only, and a second agent or insulin (P < .001 for all). In propensity score and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, initiation of therapy with sulfonylureas (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95%CI, 1.57-1.79), thiazolidinediones (HR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.43-1.80), and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (HR, 1.62; 95%CI, 1.47-1.79) was associated with an increased hazard of intensification. Alternatives to metformin were not associated with a reduced risk of hypoglycemia, emergency department visits, or cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Despite guidelines, only 57.8%of individuals began diabetes treatment with metformin. Beginning treatment with metformin was associated with reduced subsequent treatment intensification, without differences in rates of hypoglycemia or other adverse clinical events. These findings have significant implications for quality of life and medication costs

2,000 Families: identifying the research potential of an origins-of-migration study

Despite recent advances, critical areas in the analysis of European migration remain underdeveloped. We have only a limited understanding of the consequences of migration for migrants and their descendants, relative to staying behind; and our insights of intergenerational transmission is limited to two generations of those living in the destination countries. These limitations stem from a paucity of studies that incorporate comparison with non-migrants – and return migrants – in countries of origin and which trace processes of intergenerational transmission over multiple generations. This paper outlines the theoretical and methodological discussions in the field, design and data of the 2,000 Families study. The study comprises almost 50,000 members of migrant and non-migrant Turkish families across three family generations, living in Turkey and eight European countries. We provide indicative findings from the study, framed within a theoretical perspective of “dissimilation” from origins, and reflect on its potential for future migration research

Working Group on Biological Parameters (WGBIOP) 2021

The main objective of the Working Group on Biological Parameters (WGBIOP) is to review the status, issues, developments, and quality assurance of biological parameters used in assessment and management. WGBIOP (1) plans workshops, exchanges, and validation studies on a range of biological varia-bles to review the quality of information supplied for stock assessment and improve quality as-surance and training; (2) investigates data availability and develops documentation and methods to improve communication between data collectors and end-users; (3) delivers new and im-proved functionality for the SmartDots platform. Four otolith exchanges and two workshops were completed in 2020–2021 using SmartDots— eight further exchanges are ongoing. Proposed future exchanges and workshops were reviewed and approved. The development of the SmartDots platform proceeded with the inclusion of the maturity, eggs, atresia, fecundity, and larval identification modules into the software version. A live SmartDots tutorial for event coordinators was conducted. Work to further develop quality assurance guidelines—and review national applications of these—progressed. Age and maturity validation studies were reviewed and a new method for prioritizing future validation work was proposed. Progress with the Stock Identification Database (SID) was reviewed, and the potential for creating a WGBIOP library collection and active involvement of WGBIOP in updating FishBase.org data were evaluated. The importance of identifying and documenting links be-tween all relevant databases and document repositories was identified, and a task to address this was initiated. Work on improving the feedback loop between data collectors and stock assessors on the usage and quality of biological parameters in stock assessment continued. Moving forward, WGBIOP aims to continue collaboration with WGALES and WGSMART on the development of the SmartDots platform, encouraging cross-group sharing of skills and ex-perience to optimize results. WGBIOP aims to improve accessibility to its outputs through up-dates to SID and FishBase.org, and the potential creation of a WGBIOP library collection. WGBIOP hopes to improve two-way communication between data collectors and end-users around the quality and utility of biological parameters used in assessment. WGBIOP also aims to amalgamate all validation activities into one coherent workstream.ICE

Discovering temporal regularities in retail customers’ shopping behavior

In this paper we investigate the regularities characterizing the temporal purchasing behavior of the customers of a retail market chain. Most of the literature studying purchasing behavior focuses on what customers buy while giving few importance to the temporal dimension. As a consequence, the state of the art does not allow capturing which are the temporal purchasing patterns of each customers. These patterns should describe the customerâ\u80\u99s temporal habits highlighting when she typically makes a purchase in correlation with information about the amount of expenditure, number of purchased items and other similar aggregates. This knowledge could be exploited for different scopes: set temporal discounts for making the purchases of customers more regular with respect the time, set personalized discounts in the day and time window preferred by the customer, provide recommendations for shopping time schedule, etc. To this aim, we introduce a framework for extracting from personal retail data a temporal purchasing profile able to summarize whether and when a customer makes her distinctive purchases. The individual profile describes a set of regular and characterizing shopping behavioral patterns, and the sequences in which these patterns take place. We show how to compare different customers by providing a collective perspective to their individual profiles, and how to group the customers with respect to these comparable profiles. By analyzing real datasets containing millions of shopping sessions we found that there is a limited number of patterns summarizing the temporal purchasing behavior of all the customers, and that they are sequentially followed in a finite number of ways. Moreover, we recognized regular customers characterized by a small number of temporal purchasing behaviors, and changing customers characterized by various types of temporal purchasing behaviors. Finally, we discuss on how the profiles can be exploited both by customers to enable personalized services, and by the retail market chain for providing tailored discounts based on temporal purchasing regularity