Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation

Decelerating Spread of West Nile Virus by Percolation in a Heterogeneous Urban Landscape

Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000–2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics

Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

Dengue is a viral disease that affects approximately 50 million people annually, and is estimated to result in 12,500 fatalities. Dengue viruses are vectored by mosquitoes, predominantly by the species Aedes aegypti. Because there is currently no vaccine or specific treatment, the only available strategy to reduce dengue transmission is to control the populations of these mosquitoes. This can be achieved by traditional approaches such as insecticides, or by recently developed genetic methods that propose the release of mosquitoes genetically engineered to be unable to transmit dengue viruses. The expected outcome of different control strategies can be compared by simulating the population dynamics and genetics of mosquitoes at a given location. Development of optimal control strategies can then be guided by the modeling approach. To that end, we introduce a new modeling tool called Skeeter Buster. This model describes the dynamics and the genetics of Ae. aegypti populations at a very fine scale, simulating the contents of individual houses, and even the individual water-holding containers in which mosquito larvae reside. Skeeter Buster can be used to compare the predicted outcomes of multiple control strategies, traditional or genetic, making it an important tool in the fight against dengue

Genetically Engineered Underdominance for Manipulation of Pest Populations: A Deterministic Model

We theoretically investigate the potential for introgressing a desired engineered gene into a pest population by linking the desired gene to DNA constructs that exhibit underdominance properties. Our deterministic model includes two independently segregating engineered constructs that both carry a lethal gene, but suppress each other. Only genotypes containing both or neither construct are viable. Both constructs also carry the desired gene with an independent regulatory mechanism. We examine the minimal number of individuals of an engineered strain that must be released into a natural population to successfully introgress the desired gene. We compare results for strains carrying single and multiple insertions of the constructs. When there are no fitness costs associated with the inserted constructs (when the lethal sequences are not expressed), the number of individuals that must be released decreases as the number of insertions in the genome of the released strain increases. As fitness costs increase, the number of individuals that must be released increases at a greater rate for release strains with more insertions. Under specific conditions this results in the strain with only a single insertion of each construct being the most efficient for introgressing the desired gene. We discuss practical implications of our findings

Laboratory colonization stabilizes the naturally dynamic microbiome composition of field collected Dermacentor andersoni ticks

Abstract Background Nearly a quarter of emerging infectious diseases identified in the last century are arthropod-borne. Although ticks and insects can carry pathogenic microorganisms, non-pathogenic microbes make up the majority of their microbial communities. The majority of tick microbiome research has had a focus on discovery and description; very few studies have analyzed the ecological context and functional responses of the bacterial microbiome of ticks. The goal of this analysis was to characterize the stability of the bacterial microbiome of Dermacentor andersoni ticks between generations and two populations within a species. Methods The bacterial microbiome of D. andersoni midguts and salivary glands was analyzed from populations collected at two different ecologically distinct sites by comparing field (F1) and lab-reared populations (F1-F3) over three generations. The microbiome composition of pooled and individual samples was analyzed by sequencing nearly full-length 16S rRNA gene amplicons using a Pacific Biosciences CCS platform that allows identification of bacteria to the species level. Findings In this study, we found that the D. andersoni microbiome was distinct in different geographic populations and was tissue specific, differing between the midgut and the salivary gland, over multiple generations. Additionally, our study showed that the microbiomes of laboratory-reared populations were not necessarily representative of their respective field populations. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the microbiome of a few individual ticks does not represent the microbiome composition at the population level. Conclusions We demonstrated that the bacterial microbiome of D. andersoni was complex over three generations and specific to tick tissue (midgut vs. salivary glands) as well as geographic location (Burns, Oregon vs. Lake Como, Montana vs. laboratory setting). These results provide evidence that habitat of the tick population is a vital component of the complexity of the bacterial microbiome of ticks, and that the microbiome of lab colonies may not allow for comparative analyses with field populations. A broader understanding of microbiome variation will be required if we are to employ manipulation of the microbiome as a method for interfering with acquisition and transmission of tick-borne pathogens

Pregnant women´s perceptions of information about alcohol use during pregnancy: a qualitative pilot study

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