A nonlinear dynamics approach to Bogoliubov excitations of Bose-Einstein condensates

We assume the macroscopic wave function of a Bose-Einstein condensate as a superposition of Gaussian wave packets, with time-dependent complex width parameters, insert it into the mean-field energy functional corresponding to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) and apply the time-dependent variational principle. In this way the GPE is mapped onto a system of coupled equations of motion for the complex width parameters, which can be analyzed using the methods of nonlinear dynamics. We perform a stability analysis of the fixed points of the nonlinear system, and demonstrate that the eigenvalues of the Jacobian reproduce the low-lying quantum mechanical Bogoliubov excitation spectrum of a condensate in an axisymmetric trap.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings of the "8th International Summer School/Conference Let's Face Chaos Through Nonlinear Dynamics", CAMTP, University of Maribor, Slovenia, 26 June - 10 July 201

Capturing regional differences in flood vulnerability improves flood loss estimation

Flood vulnerability is quantified by loss models which are developed using either empirical or synthetic approaches. In reality, processes influencing flood risk are stochastic and loss predictions bear significant uncertainty, especially due to differences in vulnerability across exposed objects and regions. However, many state-of-the-art flood loss models are deterministic, i.e., they do not account for data and model uncertainty. The Bayesian Data-Driven Synthetic (BDDS) model was one of the first approaches that used empirical data to reduce the prediction errors at object-level and enhance the reliability of synthetic flood loss models. However, the BDDS model does not account for regional differences in vulnerability which may result in over-/under-estimation of losses in some regions. In order to overcome this limitation, this study introduces a hierarchical parameterization of the BDDS model which enhances synthetic flood loss model predictions by quantifying regional differences in vulnerability. The hierarchical parameterization makes optimal use of the process information contained in the overall data set for the various regional applications, so that it is particularly suitable for cases in which only a small amount of empirical data is available. The implementation and performance of the hierarchical parametrization is demonstrated with the Multi-Colored Manual (MCM) loss functions and empirical damage dataset from the UK consisting of residential buildings from the regions Appleby, Carlisle, Kendal and Cockermouth that suffered losses during the 2015 flood event. The developed model improves prediction accuracy of flood loss compared to MCM by reducing the absolute error and bias by at least 23 and 90%, respectively. The model reliability in terms of hit rate (i.e., the probability that the observed value lies in the 90% high density interval of predictions) is 88% for residential buildings from the same regions used for calibration and 73% for residential buildings from new regions. The approach is of high practical relevance for all regions where only limited amounts of empirical flood loss data is available

Relation between the eigenfrequencies of Bogoliubov excitations of Bose-Einstein condensates and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian in a time-dependent variational approach

We study the relation between the eigenfrequencies of the Bogoliubov excitations of Bose-Einstein condensates, and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian stability matrix in a variational approach which maps the Gross-Pitaevskii equation to a system of equations of motion for the variational parameters. We do this for Bose-Einstein condensates with attractive contact interaction in an external trap, and for a simple model of a self-trapped Bose-Einstein condensate with attractive 1/r interaction. The stationary solutions of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and Bogoliubov excitations are calculated using a finite-difference scheme. The Bogoliubov spectra of the ground and excited state of the self-trapped monopolar condensate exhibits a Rydberg-like structure, which can be explained by means of a quantum defect theory. On the variational side, we treat the problem using an ansatz of time-dependent coupled Gaussians combined with spherical harmonics. We first apply this ansatz to a condensate in an external trap without long-range interaction, and calculate the excitation spectrum with the help of the time-dependent variational principle. Comparing with the full-numerical results, we find a good agreement for the eigenfrequencies of the lowest excitation modes with arbitrary angular momenta. The variational method is then applied to calculate the excitations of the self-trapped monopolar condensates, and the eigenfrequencies of the excitation modes are compared.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figure

A consistent approach for probabilistic residential flood loss modeling in Europe

In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth‐damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN‐FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN‐FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended

Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures -- lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002

Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures

Needed: a systems approach to improve flood risk mitigation through private precautionary measures

Private precautionary measures play an increasingly important role in flood risk management. The degree to which private precautionary measures mitigate flood risk depends mainly on the type of measure (and how effective it is) and how frequently and successfully it is implemented. These aspects are influenced by a complex interaction of physical and socio-economic processes, which makes the assessment and the prediction of the mitigation of flood risk via private precautionary measures a challenge. This paper provides an overview of factors and processes that influence the implementation and effectiveness of private precaution in mitigating flood risk, underpinning it with highlights from international examples. We recommend private precautionary measures for further use to improve flood risk mitigation, but stress that they need to be considered and implemented through a holistic systems approach to maximize their effectiveness

How self-awareness is connected to less experience of action crises in personal goal pursuit

In this research, we applied a differential perspective to the study of action crises, i.e., being in an intra-psychic decisional conflict whether to pursue or abandon a goal once difficulties in its pursuit arise. In two studies, we investigated the role of individuals’ levels of self-awareness when experiencing such action crises. Both among professional ballet dancers (daily diary, Study 1) and university undergraduates (preregistered experience sampling, Study 2), individuals with greater levels of (dispositional and situational) self-awareness showed an adaptive, that is, problem-solving oriented way of dealing with difficulties in the pursuit of their (training or study) goals. As a consequence, self-awareness contributed to less experience of action crisis during goal pursuit and, as a result, led to better goal performance

Estimating parameter values of a socio-hydrological flood model

Socio-hydrological modelling studies that have been published so far show that dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent the phenomena and the feedbacks in human-flood systems. So far these models are mostly generic and have not been developed and calibrated to represent specific case studies. We believe that applying and calibrating these type of models to real world case studies can help us to further develop our understanding about the phenomena that occur in these systems. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the parameter values of a socio-hydrological model and we test it by applying it to an artificial case study. We postulate a model that describes the feedbacks between floods, awareness and preparedness. After simulating hypothetical time series with a given combination of parameters, we sample few data points for our variables and try to estimate the parameters given these data points using Bayesian Inference. The results show that, if we are able to collect data for our case study, we would, in theory, be able to estimate the parameter values for our socio-hydrological flood model

Umsatz und Speicherung von Bodenkohlenstoff entlang eines Breitengradgradienten in Wäldern der sibirischen Taiga und der Tundra

Boreale Wälder nehmen etwa 17% der Landfläche der Erde ein und sind ein wichtiger Speicher für organischen Kohlenstoff (OC). Es wird erwartet, dass sich diese Ökosysteme durch den Klimawandel stark verändern, wobei mit zunehmenden Störungen durch Feuer, und einer Expansion der Wälder in die angrenzende Tundra im Norden gerechnet wird. Die Folgen für die C-Speicherung im Boden sind ungewiss, da wenig über die OC-Vorräte, deren Stabilität und Umsatzzeiten in den wenig zugänglichen Wäldern Sibiriens und der angrenzenden Tundra bekannt ist. Deshalb haben wir insgesamt 20 Bodenprofile bis 30 cm Tiefe entlang des 96ten Längengrades von Breitengrad 55 bis 73 untersucht, von denen 13 im borealen Wald und 7 in der Tundra lagen. Neben der Bestimmung der OC- und N-Vorräte wurden eine Dichtefraktionierung der Böden durchgeführt und die 14C-Gehalte bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass im Waldbereich der Anteil des im Boden gespeicherten OC mit zunehmendem Breitengrad von 40% bei 55° auf über 90% bei 67° zunimmt. Trotz einer Abnahme der mittleren Temperatur von über 10°C und der Baum-Biomasse, findet man weder in der Auflage noch im Mineralboden eine Abhängigkeit der OC-Vorräte oder des 14C-Gehalts vom Breitengrad. Dies kann für das 14C damit zusammenhängen, dass insgesamt langsamere Umsatzzeiten bei niedrigen Temperaturen zu einem Anstieg des 14C-Gehalts von schnellen Pools (Bombenpeak), aber einer Abnahme des 14C-Gelhalts von langsamen Pools (radioaktiver Zerfall) führen würden, so dass sich im Gesamtboden beides ausgleichen kann. Zudem sind die Umsatzzeiten der normalerweise rasch abbaubaren leichten Fraktion durch pyrogenen Kohlenstoff überprägt, so dass in den Oberböden aller Waldstandorte bis zum 64sten Breitengrad die leichte Fraktion älter ist als die mineralassoziierte. Dies zeigt, dass Störungen durch Feuer die Bildung von stabilem OC in diesen Systemen beeinflussen. Trends zu Änderungen beobachten wir aber erst beim Übergang von der Taiga zur Tundra um den 67sten Breitengrad, wenn die 14C-Gehalte der organischen Auflage von 112±2 auf 77±27‰ und im Mineralboden (0-30 cm) von -132±29 auf -240±173‰ abnehmen. Dabei ist die räumliche Variabilität der 14C-Gehalte in der Tundra deutlich höher ist als im Wald. Die niedrigeren 14C-Gehalte der Böden der Wälder Sibiriens im Vergleich zu Europäischen Wäldern der gemäßigten Breiten deuten auf eine höhere mittlere Stabilität des OC in Sibirien hin. Ergebnisse der Dichtefraktionierung der Tundra-Standorte stehen noch aus