Demand functions in Polish Treasury auctions

I introduce a new approach to modeling aggregate bidding functions (demand functions) submitted by participants of share auctions, the one based on (scaled) normal cumulative distribution functions. I provide a simple model illustrating how normal cdf-shaped demand might arise. Then, using new data from the Polish Treasury securities auctions, I show first, that assumptions of the model underlying the normal cdf specification fit the stylized characteristics of the data set and, second, that this approach actually generates a slightly better fit than the traditional approximation by logistic function. I also relate the parameters of the fitted function to economic variables known prior to the auction. This method appears to be a useful tool for early detection of slumps in the performance of a particular auction design.Treasury auctions, normal cumulative distribution function, underpricing

Female scientists are considerably more likely to be mistakenly cited as if they were males than vice versa

Gender stereotypes appear so enduring that certain prestigious professions continue to be almost exclusively associated with the male gender. Michał Krawczyk sought to discover if scientist was one such profession by studying the citations to a large sample of academic publications and identifying cases of gender misattribution of the cited author. Although the overall prevalence of gender misattributions is quite low, female scientists are considerably more likely to be mistakenly cited as if they were males than vice versa. These mistakes are most common in business and economics, but virtually never happen in the biomedical fields

Declarations of invalidity of a resolution or order of a local government body as being one of the measures of supervision over a local authority

In this article, basing on normative regulations, judicial decisions of administrative courts and of Constitutional Tribunal and literature of the subject, an analysis of one of the means of supervision over local government was made, which is the Voivode having the possibility of stating the invalidity of a resolution or order by the local government body. Even though government legislation has equipped the local government with a significant degree of autonomy and independence - legal, judicial, financial, organizational - it has not subjected the lawfulness of legal acts established by local government bodies to control by government administration bodies and provided for the possibility of declaring them null and void. This article analyses the provisions concerning the circumstances and procedures for the application of such a supervision measure; and its implementation, as well as the issue of appealing the analysed supervision measure to an administrative courtW niniejszym artykule, w oparciu o regulacje normatywne, orzecznictwo sądów administracyjnych i Trybunału Konstytucyjnego oraz literaturę przedmiotu dokonano analizy jednego ze środków nadzoru nad samorządem terytorialnym, jakim jest możliwość stwierdzenia przez wojewodę nieważności uchwały lub zarządzenia organu jednostki samorządu terytorialnego. Ustawodawca co prawda wyposażył samorząd terytorialny w znaczny zakres niezależności i samodzielności – prawnej, sądowej, finansowej, organizacyjnej, niemniej jednak poddał kontroli organów administracji rządowej legalność aktów prawnych stanowionych przez organy samorządu i przewidział możliwość stwierdzenia ich nieważności. W artykule poddano analizie przepisy dotyczące przesłanek zastosowania takiego środka nadzoru i postępowania w zakresie jego wdrożenia oraz zagadnienie zaskarżenia analizowanego środka nadzoru do sądu administracyjneg

To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss aversion predicts that less risk will be taken (less questions will be answered) when losses are possible but in fact, no treatment effect was observed.loss aversion, framing, field experiments, gender differences

Metastases of gastric cancer into the liver – the authors’ own experience and literature review

Introduction. Synchronous metastases of gastric cancer to the liver occur in 3–14% of patients with this cancer, and metachronous lesions in 37% of patients after radical gastrectomy. Liver resections due to metastases of gastric carcinomas represent only 5–9% of resections due to metastases other than colorectal cancer. Until recently, patients with gastric carcinoma metastases to the liver were classified in the IV stage of cancer and the therapy was limited to chemotherapy or palliative treatment only.Material and methods. The paper presents a current review of literature and the authors’ own experience with liver resection due to gastric cancer metastases into this organ. During 34 months, 488 patients with liver metastases were treated in the Department of General, Transplant and Liver Surgery, of the Medical University of Warsaw, in whom 426 surgical procedures were performed (87.3%). The types of surgical procedures are as follows: minor liver resections in 204 patients (47.9%), hemihepatectomies in 102 patients (23.9%), thermoablations in 86 patients (20.2%) and laparotomies in 34 patients (8.0%). Among patients treated for liver metastases there were 4 patients with metastases from gastric cancer (0.8%), which constituted 1% of patients operated on, but 6.8% of patients with liver metastases from organs other than colorectal cancer. The postoperative course and direct results in all patients operated because of gastric cancer metastasesinto the liver were very good.Conclusions. In some patients (single metachronous metastasis, no extrahepatic lesions, no peritoneal lesions, with subsequent chemotherapy) liver resection due to metastases from gastric cancer provides a chance for a longer survival

Framing in the field. A simple experiment on the reflection effect

This study makes use of an unusual opportunity to manipulate framing of a simple decision under uncertainty: whether or not to answer an exam question when unsure which answer is correct and a missing response is scored higher than an incorrect one. Two treatments were compared in a natural field experiment: one in which the decision was framed in terms of losses, and the other – in terms of gains. Some alternative theories of decision making under risk, notably prospect theory, propose that individuals display reflection effect, i.e. tend to be more risk-seeking in losses than gains. No such evidence was found: subjects were generally risk-averse and this disposition was not affected by treatment.framing, reflection effect, field experiments

Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals

Studies show that people tend to provide overly narrow confidence intervals for unknown values. Such a form of overconfidence would have an important impact on financial markets, among other domains, leading i.a. to excessive trading. The present study is one of the very few that try to incentivize reporting correct confidence intervals. To this end, a reward scheme is proposed, based on a combination of asymmetric loss functions minimized by appropriate quantiles of a probability distribution. In the experiment I find that incentivized subjects provide wider confidence intervals, obtaining a higher hit rate than the control group. The effect is stronger than that of feedback and explicit warning. These findings suggest that the overly narrow confidence intervals reported elsewhere are partly due to an insufficient mental effort that subjects exert and that they can be induced to do so by the proposed incentive scheme.overconfidence, calibration, confidence intervals, proper scoring rules

Faster user interfaces could help decrease online piracy

People would pay more for legal content, but not much more, writes a University of Warsaw tea

Obowiązek alimentacyjny pomiędzy rozwiedzionymi małżonkami

On the basis of code regulations, doctrine views and Supreme Court's jurisdiction the article introduces the problems connected with the issuse and functions of the alimony obligation between divorced spouses. It also presents the reasons of its rise and extinction as well as the scope of alimony paymentsPoniższy artykuł analizuje, w oparciu o regulację kodeksową, poglądy doktryny oraz orzecznictwo Sądu Najwyższego, zagadnienia związane z istotą i funkcją obowiązku alimentacyjnego pomiędzy rozwiedzionymi małżonkami, przesłankami jego powstania i wygaśnięcia, a także zakresem świadczeń wypływających z tego obowiązk