Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes

We propose a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to obtain predictive probabilities of the apparition and devolution of bubbles. The distribution of the autoregressive coefficient of this model is allowed to be centred at an O(T−α) distance of unity, with α ∈ (0, 1). When the expectation of the autoregressive coefficient lies on the explosive side of unity, the NERC helps to model the temporary explosiveness of time series and obtain related predictive probabilities. We study the asymptotic properties of the NERC and provide a procedure for inference on the parameters. In empirical illustrations, we estimate predictive probabilities of bubbles or flash crashes in financial asset prices

Relativistic mean field study of the properties of Z=117 nucleus and the decay chains of 293,294^{293,294}117 isotopes

We have calculated the binding energy, root-mean-square radius and quadrupole deformation parameter for the recently synthesized superheavy element Z=117, using the axially deformed relativistic mean field (RMF) model. The calculation is extended to various isotopes of Z=117 element, strarting from A=286 till A=310. We predict almost spherical structures in the ground state for almost all the isotopes. A shape transition appears at about A=292 from prolate to a oblate shape structures of Z=117 nucleus in our mean field approach. The most stable isotope (largest binding energy per nucleon) is found to be the $^{288}$117 nucleus. Also, the Q-value of $\alpha$-decay $Q_\alpha$ and the half-lives $T_{\alpha}$ are calculated for the $\alpha$-decay chains of $^{293}$117 and $^{294}$117, supporting the magic numbers at N=172 and/ or 184.Comment: 6 Pages and 8 Figure

Heat transfer simulation of the cure of thermoplastic particle interleaf carbon fibre epoxy prepregs

Thermochemical properties are needed to develop process models and define suitable cure cycles to convert thermosetting polymers into rigid glassy materials. Uncertainty surrounding the suitability of thermal analysis techniques and semi-empirical models developed for conventional composite materials has been raised for the new class of particle interleaf materials. This paper describes kinetics, conductivity, heat capacity and glass transition temperature measurements of HexPly® M21 particle interleaf material. Thermal models describing conventional, non-particle epoxy systems were fit to the data and validated through a thick-section cure. Results from curing experiments agree with heat transfer simulation predictions, indicating that established thermal analysis techniques and models can describe polymerisation and evolving material properties during processing of a material representing the class of interleaf toughened systems. A sensitivity study showed time savings up to about 20%, and associated energy-efficiency-productivity benefits can be achieved by using cure simulation for particle interleaf materials

The strength of nuclear shell effects at N=126 in the r-process region

We have investigated nuclear shell effects across the magic number N=126 in the region of the r-process path. Microscopic calculations have been performed using the relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov approach within the framework of the RMF theory for isotopic chains of rare-earth nuclei in the r-process region. The Lagrangian model NL-SV1 with the inclusion of the vector self-coupling of omega meson has been employed. The RMF results show that the shell effects at N=126 remain strong and exhibit only a slight reduction in the strength in going from the r-process path to the neutron drip line. This is in striking contrast to a systematic weakening of the shell effects at N=82 in the r-process region predicted earlier in the similar approach. In comparison the shell effects with microscopic-macroscopic mass formulae show a near constancy of shell gaps leading to strong shell effects in the region of r-process path to the drip line. A recent analysis of solar-system r-process abundances in a prompt supernova explosion model using various mass formulae including the recently introduced mass tables based upon HFB approach shows that whilst mass formulae with weak shell effects at N=126 give rise to a spread and an overproduction of nuclides near the third abundance peak at A~190, mass tables with droplet models showing stronger shell effects are able to reproduce the abundance features near the third peak appropriately. In comparison, several analyses of the second r-process peak at A~130 have required weakened shell effects at N=82. Our predictions in the RMF theory with NL-SV1, which exhibit weaker shell effects at N=82 and stronger one at N=126 in the r-process region, support the conjecture that a different nature of the shell effects at the magic numbers may be at play in r-process nucleosynthesis of heavy nuclei.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; submitted to Physical Review C. Part of this work was presented at Nuclear Physics in Astrophysics II, 20th International Nuclear Physics Divisional Conference of the European Physical Society, at Debrecen, Hungary, May 16-20, 200

Two-body correlation functions in nuclear matter with npnp condensate

The density, spin and isospin correlation functions in nuclear matter with a neutron-proton ($np$) condensate are calculated to study the possible signatures of the BEC-BCS crossover in the low-density region. It is shown that the criterion of the crossover (Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 95}, 090402 (2005)), consisting in the change of the sign of the density correlation function at low momentum transfer, fails to describe correctly the density-driven BEC-BCS transition at finite isospin asymmetry or finite temperature. As an unambiguous signature of the BEC-BCS transition, there can be used the presence (BCS regime) or absence (BEC regime) of the singularity in the momentum distribution of the quasiparticle density of states.Comment: Prepared with RevTeX4, 5p., 4 figure

Closed shells at drip-line nuclei

The shell structure of magic nuclei far from stability is discussed in terms of the self-consistent spherical Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov theory. In particular, the sensitivity of the shell-gap sizes and the two-neutron separation energies to the choice of particle-hole and particle-particle components of the effective interaction is investigated.Comment: 19 pages, LaTeX, 8 uuencoded figures available upon reques

First decay study of the very neutron-rich isotope Br-93

The decay of the mass-separated, very neutron-rich isotope Br-93 has been studied by gamma-spectroscopy. A level scheme of its daughter Kr-93 has been constructed. Level energies, gamma-ray branching ratios and multipolarities suggest spins and parities which are in accord with a smooth systematics of the N=57 isotones for Z less-equal 40, suggesting the N=56 shell closure still to be effective in Kr isotopes. So far, there is no indication of a progressive onset of deformation in neutron-rich Kr isotopes.The decay of the mass-separated, very neutron-rich isotope Br-93 has been studied by gamma-spectroscopy. A level scheme of its daughter Kr-93 has been constructed. Level energies, gamma-ray branching ratios and multipolarities suggest spins and parities which are in accord with a smooth systematics of the N=57 isotones for Z less-equal 40, suggesting the N=56 shell closure still to be effective in Kr isotopes. So far, there is no indication of a progressive onset of deformation in neutron-rich Kr isotopes

Whole-fat or reduced-fat dairy product intake, adiposity, and cardiometabolic health in children: A systematic review

Dietary guidelines commonly recommend that children aged \u3e2 y consume reduced-fat dairy products rather than regular- or whole-fat dairy. In adults, most studies have not found the consumption of whole-fat dairy products to be associated with increased cardiometabolic or adiposity risk. Associations in children could differ due to growth and development. We systematically reviewed the literature in indexed, peer-reviewed journals to summarize pediatric studies (children aged from 2 to 18 y) assessing associations between whole- and reduced-fat dairy intake and measures of adiposity as well as biomarkers of cardiometabolic disease risk, including the serum lipid profile, blood pressure, low-grade chronic inflammation, oxidative stress, and measures of glucose homeostasis. For the purposes of this review, a “whole-fat” dairy product was defined as a product with the natural fat content, whereas a “reduced-fat” dairy product was defined as a product with some or all of the fat removed (including “low-fat” and “skim” versions). A total of 29 journal articles met our criteria for inclusion. The majority were conducted in the United States and were prospective or cross-sectional observational studies, with only 1 randomized controlled trial. Studies were consistent in reporting that whole-fat dairy products were not associated with increased measures of weight gain or adiposity. Most evidence indicated that consumption of whole-fat dairy was not associated with increased cardiometabolic risk, although a change from whole-fat to reduced-fat dairy improved outcomes for some risk factors in 1 study. Taken as a whole, the limited literature in this field is not consistent with dietary guidelines recommending that children consume preferably reduced-fat dairy products. High-quality randomized controlled trials in children that directly compare the effects of whole-fat compared with reduced-fat dairy intake on measures of adiposity or biomarkers of cardiometabolic disease risk are needed to provide better quality evidence in this area