8 research outputs found
The deployment of BEV and FCEV in 2015
In Europe the transport sector contributes about 25% of total GHG emissions, 75% of which come from road transport. Contrarily to industrial emissions road emissions have increased over the period 1990-2015 in OECD countries: California (+26%), Germany (0%), France (+12%), Japan (+2%), Denmark (+30%). The number of registered vehicles on road in these countries amounts respectively to: California (33 million), Germany (61.5 million), France (38 million), Japan (77 million), Denmark (4 million). Even if these numbers are not expected to grow in the future this calls for major programs to reduce the corresponding GHG emissions in order to achieve the global GHG targets for 2050. The benefits from these programs will spread out to non OECD countries in which road emissions are bound to increase. Programs to promote zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) effectively started in the 2000âs through public private partnerships involving government agencies, manufacturers, utilities and fuel companies. These partnerships provided subsidies for R&D, pilot programs and infrastructure. Moreover, technical norms for emissions, global requirements for the portfolio of sales for manufacturers, rebates on the purchasing price for customers as well as various perks (driving bus lanes, free parking, etc.) are now in place. These multiple policy instruments constitute powerful incentives to orient the strategies of manufacturers and to stimulate the demand for ZEV. The carbon tax on the distribution of fossil fuels, whenever it exists, remains low and, at this stage, cannot be considered as an important driving force. The cases studies reveal important differences for the deployment of battery electric vehicle (BEV) versus fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). BEV is leading the game with a cheaper infrastructure investment cost and a lower cost for vehicle. The relatively low autonomy makes BEV mostly suited for urban use, which is a large segment of the road market. The current level of BEV vehicles on roads starts to be significant with California (70,000), Germany (25,000), France (31,000), Japan (608,000) Denmark (3,000), but they remain very low relative to the targets for 2020: California (1.5 million), Germany (1 million), France (2 million), Japan (0.8-1.1 million for ZEV new registrations), Denmark (0.25 million). The developments and efficiency gains in battery technology along with subsidies for battery charging public stations are expected to facilitate the achievement of the growth. The relative rates of equipment (number of publicly available stations / number of BEV) provide indirect evidence on the effort made in the different countries: California (3%), Germany (12%), France (28%), Japan (11%), and Denmark (61%). In some countries public procurement plays a significant role. In France Autolib (publicly available cars in towns) represents a large share of the overall BEV deployment (12%), and the government recently announced a 50% target for low emissions in all public vehicles new equipment. FCEV is still in an early deployment stage due to a higher infrastructure investment cost and a higher cost for vehicle. The relatively high autonomy combined with speed refueling make FCEV mostly suited for long distance and interurban usage. At present there are only a very limited numbers of HRS deployed: California (28), Germany (15), France (6), Japan (31), Japan (7), Denmark (7), and only a few units of H2 vehicles on road: California (300), Germany (125), France (60), Japan (7), Denmark (21). However, a detailed analysis of the current road maps suggests that FCEV has a large potential. Targets for the 2025-2030 horizons are significant in particular in Germany (4% in 2030), Denmark (4.5% in 2025) and Japan (15-20% for ZEV new registrations in 2020). The California ARB has recently redefined its program (subsidies and mandates) to provide higher incentives for FCEV. France appears to focus on specialized regional submarkets to promote FCEV (such as the use of H2 range extending light utility vehicles). The financing of the H2 infrastructure appears as a bottleneck for FCEV deployment. Roadmaps address this issue through progressive geographical expansion (clusters) and a high level of public subsidies hydrogen refueling station (HRS) in particular in all countries except France. At this stage of BEV and FCEV do not appear as direct competitors; they address distinct market segments. Unexpected delays in the development of infrastructure in FCEV, possible breakthroughs in battery technology, and the promotion of national champions may change the nature of this competition, making it more intense in the future
Pharmacological screening of substances with cardioprotective effect in the group of 3-oxypyridine derivatives
Research objectives: To study the anti-hypoxic and cardioprotective effects of 3-oxypyridine derivatives. The search for compounds with an antihypoxic effect was carried out on blood leukocytes of rats in in vitr
Choix de politiques sectorielles pour la dĂ©carbonisation de lâĂ©conomie. Application au cas de lâhydrogĂšne pour le secteur du transport
What economic and policy framework would foster a transition in the European transport sector from fossil fuels to hydrogen in the long term (2030-50)? This research combines empirical and theoretical approaches and aims to answers the following questions:1.How to design appropriate policy instruments to solve inefficiencies in hydrogen mobility deployment?2.How to define abatement cost and an optimal launching date in the presence of learning-by-doing (LBD)?3.How to define an optimal deployment trajectory in presence of LBD and convexity in investment costs?The paper âTransition Towards a Hydrogen-Based Passenger Car Transport: Comparative Policy Analysisâ draws a cross-country comparison between policy instruments that support the deployment of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV). The existing policy framework in favour of FCEV and hydrogen infrastructure deployment is analysed. A set of complementary ex-post policy efficiency indicators is developed and calculated to rank the most active countries, supporters of FCEV. Denmark and Japan emerge as the best providers of favourable conditions for the hydrogen mobility deployment: local authorities put in place price-based incentives (such as subsidies and tax exemptions) making FCEV more financially attractive than its gasoline substitute, and coordinate ramping-up of their hydrogen infrastructure nationally.The paper âDefining the Abatement Cost in Presence of Learning-by-doing: Application to the Fuel Cell Electric Vehicleâ models the transition of the transport sector from a pollutant state to a clean one. A partial equilibrium model is developed for a car sector of a constant size. In this model the objective of the social planner is to minimize the cost of phasing out a stock of polluting cars from the market over time. The cost includes the private cost of green cars production, which are subject to LBD, and the social cost of carbon, which has an exogenous upward trend. During the transition, the equalization of marginal costs takes into account the fact that the current action has an impact on future costs through LBD. This paper also describes a suboptimal plan: if the deployment trajectory is exogenously given, what is the optimal starting date for the transition? The paper provides a quantitative assessment of the FCEV case for the substitution of the mature Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. The analysis concludes that the CO2 price should reach 53âŹ/t for the program to start and for FCEV to be a socially beneficial alternative for decarbonizing part of the projected German car park in the 2050 time frame.The impact of LBD on the timing and costs of emission abatement is, however, ambiguous. On the one hand, LBD supposes delaying abatement activities because of cost reduction of future abatement due to LBD. On the other hand, LBD supposes starting the transition earlier because of cost reduction due to added value to cumulative experience. The paper âThe Role of Learning-by-Doing in the Adoption of a Green Technology: the Case of Linear LBDâ studies the optimal characteristics of a transition towards green vehicles in the transport sector when both LBD and convexity are present in the cost function. The partial equilibrium model of (Creti et al., 2015) is used as a starting point. For the case of linear LBD the deployment trajectory can be analytically obtained. This allows to conclude that a high learning induces an earlier switch towards green cars in the case of low convexity, and a later switch in the case of high convexity. This insight is used to revisit the hydrogen mobility project in Germany. A high learning lowers the corresponding deployment cost and reduces deepness and duration of the, investment âdeath valleyâ (period of negative projectâs cash flow). An acceleration of exogenously defined scenario for FCEV deployment, based on the industry forecast, would be beneficial to reduce the associated transition cost.Quel cadre Ă©conomique et rĂ©glementaire Ă long terme (2030-50) pour soutenir la transition Ă©nergĂ©tique des carburants fossiles vers lâhydrogĂšne dans le secteur europĂ©en des transports ? Cette recherche combine les approches thĂ©oriques et empiriques pour rĂ©pondre aux trois questions suivantes :1.Comment concevoir des politiques de soutien adaptĂ©es pour pallier les imperfections de marchĂ© lors du dĂ©ploiement de technologies de mobilitĂ© hydrogĂšne ?2.Comment modĂ©liser les coĂ»ts dâabattement en tenant compte des effets dâapprentissage (LBD) ?3.Comment dĂ©finir la trajectoire optimale de dĂ©ploiement quand le LBD et la convexitĂ© des coĂ»ts dâinvestissement sont prĂ©sents ?Lâarticle âTransition vers un SystĂšme de Transport de Passagers Ă HydrogĂšne : Analyse Politique ComparĂ©eâ passe au crible des politique de soutien destinĂ©es Ă rĂ©soudre les imperfections de marchĂ© dans le dĂ©ploiement de la mobilitĂ© hydrogĂšne. Lâarticle effectue une comparaison internationale entre les instruments en faveur du dĂ©ploiement des vĂ©hicules. Les indicateurs ex post dâefficacitĂ© des politiques sont dĂ©veloppĂ©s et calculĂ©s pour classifier les pays selon leur volontarisme dans la promotion des vĂ©hicules Ă piles Ă combustible (FCEV). Aujourdâhui le Japon et le Danemark apparaissent comme les meilleurs fournisseurs dâun environnement favorable au dĂ©ploiement de la mobilitĂ© hydrogĂšne. Les autoritĂ©s locales introduisent de solides instruments prix (tels que des subventions et des exemptions fiscales) pour rendre le FCEV plus attractif par rapport Ă son analogue Ă essence et coordonnent le dĂ©ploiement de lâinfrastructure hydrogĂšne sur le territoire.Lâarticle âModĂ©lisation des CoĂ»ts dâAbattement en PrĂ©sence dâEffets dâApprentissage : le Cas du VĂ©hicule Ă HydrogĂšneâ prĂ©sente un modĂšle de transition du secteur des transports dâun Ă©tat polluant Ă un Ă©tat propre. Un modĂšle dâĂ©quilibre partiel est dĂ©veloppĂ© pour un secteur automobile de taille constante. Lâoptimum social est atteint en minimisant le coĂ»t de la transition du parc automobile au cours du temps. Ce coĂ»t comprend les coĂ»ts privĂ©s de production des vĂ©hicules dĂ©carbonĂ©s (sujets aux effets dâapprentissage) ainsi que le coĂ»t social des Ă©missions de CO2 qui suit une tendance haussiĂšre exogĂšne. Lâarticle caractĂ©rise la trajectoire optimale qui est un remplacement progressif des vĂ©hicules polluants par les dĂ©carbonĂ©s. Au cours de la transition, lâĂ©galisation des coĂ»ts marginaux tient compte de lâimpact des actions prĂ©sentes sur les coĂ»ts futurs via lâeffet dâapprentissage. Lâarticle dĂ©crit aussi une trajectoire sous-optimale oĂč la trajectoire de dĂ©ploiement serait une donnĂ©e exogĂšne : quelle serait alors la date optimale de dĂ©but de la transition ? Lâarticle prĂ©sente une Ă©valuation quantitative de la substitution des FCEV aux vĂ©hicules Ă combustion interne (ICE). Lâanalyse conclut que le FCEV deviendra une option Ă©conomiquement viable pour dĂ©carboner une partie du parc automobile allemand Ă lâhorizon 2050 dĂšs que le prix du carbone atteindra 50-60âŹ/t.Lâarticle âLe rĂŽle des Effets dâApprentissage dans lâAdoption dâune Technologie Verte : le Cas LBD LinĂ©aireâ Ă©tudie les caractĂ©ristiques dâune trajectoire optimale de dĂ©ploiement des vĂ©hicules dĂ©carbonĂ©s dans le cas oĂč les effets dâapprentissage et la convexitĂ© sont prĂ©sents dans la fonction de coĂ»t. Le modĂšle dâĂ©quilibre partiel de Creti et. al (2015) est utilisĂ© comme point de dĂ©part. Dans le cas LBD linĂ©aire la trajectoire de dĂ©ploiement optimale est obtenue analytiquement. Un apprentissage fort induit une transition antĂ©rieure vers les vĂ©hicules verts dans le cas dâune convexitĂ© faible et une transition ultĂ©rieure dans le cas dâune convexitĂ© forte. Ce rĂ©sultat permet de revisiter le projet H2 Mobility en Allemagne. Un effet dâapprentissage plus fort et une accĂ©lĂ©ration du dĂ©ploiement aboutissent Ă une transition moins coĂ»teuse et une pĂ©riode de cash flow nĂ©gatif plus courte
A cost benefit analysis of fuel cell electric vehicles
This study develops a consistent framework to compare FCEV with gasoline ICE (ignition combustion engine) and applies this framework to the German market over the period 2015-2050. As such it provides for:- The formulation of a proper cost benefit analysis, including the definition of the abatement cost for the hydrogen technology;- The simulation of the results under various technological and cost assumptions;- The identification of the major conceptual issues to facilitate analytical developments.The sources used in the analysis are based on an update of previous industry studies. The main conclusion is that FCEV could be a socially beneficial alternative for decarbonizing part of the projected German car park at the horizon 2050. The corresponding abatement cost would fall inthe range of 50 âŹ/t CO2 to 60 âŹ/t CO2. This range is higher than the current estimate for the normative cost of carbon as expressed in Quinet (2009 and 2013), which is around 30âŹ/t in 2015. Still the gap is not out of hand. We identify the market and cost conditions that would shorten the gap.The methodology used in this study could be expanded to integrate two pending issues noted in the literature for the successful deployment of FCEV:- Making the deployment for FCEV endogenous and depending on the public and private instruments that could induce the decreasing of costs and the acceptance of the FCEV technology by consumers.- Designing an appropriate institutional framework to promote cooperation for manufacturing FCEV, producing carbon free H2 and investing in the distribution of H2. The initial sunk costs necessary for investment cannot be recouped through pure market equilibrium behavior. This study already provides an order of magnitude to quantify these issues
DEFINING THE ABATEMENT COST IN PRESENCE OF LEARNING-BY-DOING: APPLICATION TO THE FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLE
The transition of a sector from a pollutant state to a clean one is studied. A green technology, subject to learning-by-doing, progressively replaces an old one. The notion of abatement cost in this dynamic context is fully characterized. The theoretical,dynamic optimization, perspective is linked to simple implementation rules. The practical "deployment" perspective allows to study sub-optimal trajectories. Moreover, the analysis of the launching date provides a denition of a dynamic abatement cost easy to use for evaluation of real-world policy options. The case of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles offers an illustration of the proposed methodology
Correction to: Defining the Abatement Cost in Presence of Learning-by-Doing: Application to the Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Novel Antireflection Coatings Obtained by Low-Temperature Annealing in the Presence of Tetrabutylammonium Bromide and Gold Nanoparticles
In this work, nanoporous antireflective coatings on silicate glass were obtained from silicon dioxide sol compositions by the sol-gel method in the presence of quaternary ammonium salt (tetrabutylammonium bromide) at different annealing temperatures (200–250 °C). Varying the salt concentration from 3 to 5 wt.%, we achieved the transmittance of the coatings of about 97% at 250 °C in comparison with 91% for clean glass in the wavelength range from 400 to 1100 nm. The addition of gold nanoparticles to the composition containing 5 wt.% tetrabutylammonium bromide allowed us to decrease the annealing temperature to 200 °C, preserving the transmittance at the level of 96.5%. For this case, the optimal concentration of gold nanoparticles is determined (2.6 × 10−9 mol/mL). According to the SEM analysis, the obtained antireflective coatings contain pores with a minimum area size up to 4 nm2