The best defence is not being there : avoidance of larger carnivores is not driven by risk intensity

ACKNLOWDGEMENTS We would like to thank the Cairngorms Connect, Forestry and Land Scotland, Wildland.Ltd, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and NatureScot for providing access to the study sites, and their staff who supported our work. We would like to thank Thomas MacDonell and Wildland.Ltd in particular for their in-kind contributions and continued support. Comments by two anonymous reviewers and the journal’s associate editor contributed to improve this article. The study was funded by Forestry and Land Scotland, the School of Biological Sciences (University of Aberdeen) and Wildland.Ltd.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Lethal interactions among forest-grouse predators are numerous, motivated by hunger and carcasses, and their impacts determined by the demographic value of the victims

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their critical read of an earlier version of this manuscript and the insightful comments to improve it. This work was funded by Forestry and Land Scotland and the School of Biological Sciences (University of Aberdeen).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Strong inference from transect sign surveys : combining spatial autocorrelation and misclassification occupancy models to quantify the detectability of a recovering carnivore

Acknowledgements We are very grateful for the input provided by Elizabeth Croose, Declan O'Mahony and Denise O'Meara on pine marten survey methodology and related constraints, which we hope this paper will go some way toward relieving. Christopher Sutherland was incredibly helpful in discussion of occupancy modelling techniques. We would also like to thank Thys Simpson, Colin McClean and Shaila Rao for arranging access to private estates for surveying. Funding — Forest Enterprise Scotland and the University of Aberdeen provided funding for the project. The Carnegie Trust supported the lead author, E. McHenry, in this research through the award of a tuition fees bursary.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Evaluating diversionary feeding as a method to resolve conservation conflicts in a recovering ecosystem

Funding: Scottish University Partnership of Environmental Research (SUPER DTP), Grant/Award Number: NE/S007342/1; Forestry and Land Scotland.1. The recovery of mammalian predators of conservation concern in Europe is a success story, but their impact on some prey species of conservation concern may cause conservation dilemmas. This calls for effective intervention strategies that mitigate predator impacts without compromising their recovery. 2. We evaluated diversionary feeding as a management intervention tool to reduce depredation on nests of rapidly declining Western capercaillies in Scotland. We studied the influence of diversionary feeding provision on the fates of artificial nests deployed using a replicated and representative randomised landscape-scale experiment. This comprised 30 'paired' control (no diversionary feeding) and treatment (diversionary feeding applied) sites, 60 in total, each containing six artificial nests distributed across 600 km2. The experiment was replicated over 2 years, and in the second year, the control-treatment pairs were reversed, yielding 60 treatment and 60 control sites and 720 artificial nests. 3. Diversionary feeding substantially reduced depredation of artificial nests, translating into an 82.5% increase in predicted nest survival over 28 days of incubation. The increase in survival was mostly accounted for by a reduction in the probability that a pine marten, the main nest predator, consumed or cached eggs. Diversionary food also significantly reduced nest predation by badgers, although the magnitude of this effect varied by year. 4. Synthesis and applications. Diversionary feeding is an easily employable method shown in this study to reduce predator impact (functional) without lethal (numerical) intervention. Managers should proceed with its application for conserving capercaillie in Scotland without delay.Peer reviewe

Natural strongholds for red squirrel conservation in Scotland

The Eurasian Red Squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) is under threat from the invasive North American eastern Grey Squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) with 80% of the remaining red squirrel populations in the British Isles found in Scotland. In this study we develop a spatially explicit mathematical model of the red and grey squirrel system and use it to assess the population viability of red squirrels across Scotland. In particular, we aim to identify existing forests – natural strongholds for red squirrels – that can successfully support red squirrels under UK Forestry Standard management and protect them from potential disease-mediated competition from grey squirrels. Our model results indicate that if current levels of grey squirrel control, which restrict or reduce the distribution of grey squirrels, are continued then there will be large expanses of forests in northern Scotland that support viable red squirrel populations. Model results that represent (hypothetical) scenarios where grey squirrel control no longer occurred indicated that grey squirrel range expansion and the process of red squirrel replacement would be slow. Model results for an assumed worst-case scenario where grey squirrels have expanded to all regions in Scotland identified forest regions – denoted natural strongholds – that could currently support red squirrels under UK Forestry Standard management practice. The results will be used to inform forest management policy and support a strategic review of red squirrel management by land management agencies and other stakeholders

Interspecific coprophagia by wild red foxes : DNA metabarcoding reveals a potentially widespread form of commensalism among animals

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are deeply grateful to the Cairngorms Connect, Forestry and Land Scotland, Wildland Ltd., the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and NatureScot and their staff for their ongoing support. Particularly, to Thomas MacDonell for encouraging us to investigate the occurrence of dog DNA. Two anonymous reviewers contributed to improve an earlier version of this manuscript as did Thomas Cornulier and Jennifer Smart. This study was funded by Forestry and Land Scotland, the School of Biological Sciences of Aberdeen University and Wildland Ltd.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Further declines of the Western Capercaillie <i>Tetrao urogallus</i> in Scotland as shown by the 2021–2022 winter survey

The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021–2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227–810. To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland. Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, sampling in two separate strata: a primary stratum in the core range and a secondary stratum in peripheral areas. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit alternative detection functions to the sighting data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of abundance. The survey recorded 115 Western Capercaillies in 104 separate encounters across 635 transects, yielding a population estimate of 532 individuals (95% CI: 227–810). This estimate was 52% lower than from the population survey in 2015–2016 (1114 individuals, 95% CI: 805–1505). Declines were greater for females than for males, leading to an adult sex ratio in favour of males. Most of the population (80%) continues to be concentrated in the region of Badenoch and Strathspey. With the population at its lowest level since the start of national monitoring in 1992–1994, the likelihood of extinction in Scotland for a second time seems inevitable without a step-change in conservation action. Measures to improve breeding success and survival are needed and should be targeted in the core of the range to maximize impact on the population.</p