Welfare Dependency Among Immigrants to Norway: A Panel Data Study of Transfer Shares

Using Norwegian panel data, we specify and estimate transfer share equations for immigrants belonging to different subgroups. The share measures how import transfers are relative to a gross income concept incorporating transfers and gross income coming from labor market participation. For both genders, we consider three types of immigrants: refugees, individuals immigrating for reunification with refugees and individuals immigrating because of work. The transfer share for an individual depends on different characteristics of it. The explanatory variables we consider are related to age, duration of stay in Norway, family composition, educational attainment and area of geographical residence in Norway. Unobserved individual-specific heterogeneity is represented by random effects. Of special concern, not at least from a policy point of view, is the effect of duration of stay on the transfer shares. For refugees and individuals reunifying with refugees we find, at least for a substantial number of years, that the transfer share decreases as the duration of stay becomes longer. An essential part of the analysis is that we compare the effects across gender. Among the refugees we find that the effect of duration of stay is quite similar for men and women

Empirical modelling of internal migration and commuting flows for economic regions in Norway

This paper provides empirical results for internal migration and commuting flows using panel data for 89 economic regions in Norway for the years 2001-2014. The emphasis is on the potential effects of different incentive variables. We consider both in- and out-migration as well as in- and outcommuting with a common set of explanatory variables. We perform panel data analysis for four educational groups using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models, acknowledging that the effects of the incentive variables may vary across educational groups. Generally, we find weak responses to the incentive variables for the eight response variables, but they differ somewhat across the educational groups. The group comprised of those with a low education appears to be most responsive

Theoretical and Practical Arguments for Modeling Labor Supply as a Choice among Latent Jobs

Models of labor supply derived from stochastic utility representations and discretized sets of feasible hours of work have gained popularity because they are more practical than the standard approaches based on marginal calculus. In this paper we argue that practicality is not the only feature that can be addressed by means of stochastic choice theory. This theory also offers a powerful framework for developing a more realistic model for labor supply choices, founded on individuals having preferences over jobs and facing restrictions on the choice of jobs and hours of work. We discuss and clarify how this modeling framework deviates from both the conventional discrete approach (Van Soest, 1995), as well as the standard textbook approach based on marginal calculus (Hausman, 1985). It is argued that a model based on job choice opens up for a more realistic representation of the choice environment, and consequently offers the possibility of conducting a richer set of simulations of alternative policies.labor supply, random utility models, tax reform

Empirical modeling of internal migration and commuting flows for economic regions in Norway

This article provides empirical results for internal migration and commuting flows using panel data for 89 economic regions in Norway for the years 2001–2014. The emphasis is on the potential effects of different incentive variables. We consider both in- and out-migration as well as in- and out-commuting with a common set of explanatory variables. We perform panel data analysis for four educational groups using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models, acknowledging that the effects of the incentive variables may vary across educational groups. Generally, we find weak responses to the incentive variables for the eight response variables, but they differ somewhat across the educational groups. The group comprised of those with a low education appears to be most responsive. An increase in an economic region’s relative wage rate leads to higher in-migration and lower out-migration for individuals with low education. Furthermore, an increase in an economic region’s relative unemployment rate leads to lower in-migration whereas out-migration is left unaffected for individuals with this type of education. Besides, an increase in the relative unemployment rate leads to a significant reduction in in-commuting for this group.publishedVersio

Why Do Immigrants to Norway Leave the Country or Move Domestically? Some Important Facts

We consider immigrants living in Norway and their behavior with respect to mobility. Using cross-sectional data, we employ a trinomial logit model. An immigrant may (i) move to another centrality level, (ii) emigrate, or (iii) stay at the same centrality level as in the previous period. We carry out separate estimations for eight different groups, brought about combining four centrality levels with two genders. To assess the effect of different explanatory variables related to (i) duration of residence in Norway, (ii) labor market status, (iii) reason for immigration, (iv) the extent of education and (v) family size and composition, we calculate marginal effects. In line with earlier results, we obtain that longer duration of residence tends to decrease the probability of emigration and that immigrants who have stated escape as the reason for immigration to Norway tends to have lower probabilities for emigration than those who have stated work as the reason

Women’s wages and fertility revisited. Evidence from Norway

Since the 1960s, Beckers’ New Home Economics has provided a central theoretical framework for studies of fertility behaviour. New Home Economics predict a negative effect of female wages on fertility. This prediction has been tested in a number of studies over the past decades, but the results are far from unanimous. In this paper we review past evidence of the impact of female wages on their childbearing behaviour and supply new evidence from Norway. We estimate a simultaneous hazard rate model of transitions to first, second and third birth, including predicted wage as a timedependent variable. Using a very large dataset covering all women born in Norway during the period 1955-74, we find that timing of births is associated with wage changes. The wage effect on the log hazard is U-shaped for all the four 5-year cohorts we are studying, but the effect varies across cohorts and parity. We also find that the relationship between timing of births and wages are not very sensitive to the omission of the women’s non-labour income.Norwegian Research CouncilpublishedVersio

Ageing and labor productivity

We exploit a policy-induced shift in the labor supply of elderly (age 63–67) workers in Norway to explore how aging of the workforce within existing firms is likely to affect labor productivity and the demand for younger workers. Our results are imprecise, but indicate that a higher share of age 63–67 workers increases total wage costs and has a small positive effect on labor productivity in the short run. Postponed retirement of existing elderly workers leads to a significant decline in the hiring of younger (below age 30) workers.publishedVersio

Understanding the positive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s fertility in Norway

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macro level have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on fertility level in Norway, but women’s fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020 as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women’s fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economic and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women’s work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic-related measures taken by the Norwegian government

Barnehageforliket - effekter på arbeidstilbud og inntektsfordeling

Økonomiske analyser er tilgjengelige via www.ssb.noBarnehageforliket våren 2003 innebærer at fra 2005 skal foreldre maksimalt betale 1 500 kroner per måned for en barnehageplass, samtidig som at det skal være full behovsdekning. I denne artikkelen diskuteres effekter av denne reformen med hensyn til mødrenes tilbud av arbeidskraft og inntektsfordelingen blant familier med førskolebarn. Det anvendes en simuleringsmodell for familier med førskolebarn, der foreldrene velger barnepass og mødrenes arbeidstilbud simultant. Resultatene viser at den reduserte foreldrebetalingen øker mødrenes arbeidstilbud, men at økningen forsterkes dersom en makter å bygge nye barnehageplasser i takt med den økende etterspørselen. I artikkelen vises det også til at kostnadene ved reformen kan overvurderes dersom en ikke tar hensyn til økte skatteinntekter som følge av at mødrenes arbeidstilbud øker

Økonomiske virkninger av to tiltak for likere lønn

Kvinnelige lønnstakere tjener i gjennomsnitt betydelig mindre enn menn. Regjeringen satte derfor ned et utvalg - Likelønnskommisjonen - som blant annet skulle vurdere hva som kan bidra til å redusere de systematiske forskjellene i timelønn. I denne studien rapporteres beregninger med mikrosimuleringsmodellen LOTTE-Arbeid og den makroøkonometrisk modellen MODAG som kaster lys over de økonomiske virkningene av to av tiltakene kommisjonen foreslår; innstramming i håndhevelsen av likelønnsbestemmelsen i Lov om likestilling mellom kjønnene og et likelønnsløft for kvinnedominerte yrker i offentlig sektor. Hvor mye lønnsgapet vil bli redusert av å skjerpe håndhevelsen av loven, kan vi ikke si noe om. Hvis det førte til full lønnsutjevning ved at kvinner får samme avkastning av utdanning og yrkeserfaring som menn uavhengig av sektor og bedrift, er den isolerte effekten på arbeidstilbudet i følge LOTTE-Arbeid en økning i kvinners arbeidstilbud med 4,0 prosent. Kvinners lønn ville da i gjennomsnitt øke med 18,8 prosent