Longitudinal Associations of High-Volume and Vigorous-Intensity Exercise With Hip Fracture Risk in Men

Maintenance of vigorous exercise habits from young to old age is considered protective against hip fractures, but data on fracture risk in lifelong vigorous exercisers are lacking. This longitudinal cohort study examined the hazard of hip fractures in 1844 male former athletes and 1216 population controls and in relation to exercise volume and intensity in later years. Incident hip fractures after age 50 years were identified from hospital discharge register from 1972 to 2015. Exercise and covariate information was obtained from questionnaires administered in 1985, 1995, 2001, and 2008. Analyses were conducted using extended proportional hazards regression model for time-dependent exposures and effects. During the mean +/- SD follow-up of 21.6 +/- 10.3 years, 62 (3.4%) athletes and 38 (3.1%) controls sustained a hip fracture. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) indicated no statistically significant difference between athletes and controls (0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-1.29). In subgroup analyses, adjusted HRs for athletes with recent high (>= 15 metabolic equivalent hours [MET-h]/week) and low (= 6 METs at least 75 minutes/week) had initially 77% lower hazard rate (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI, 0.06-0.86) than controls. However, the HR was time-dependent (adjusted HR 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07); by age 75 years the HRs for the athletes with vigorous-intensity exercise reached the level of the controls, but after 85 years the HRs for these athletes increased approximately 1.3-fold annually relative to the controls. In conclusion, these data suggest that continuation of vigorous-intensity exercise is associated with lower HR of hip fracture up to old age. (c) 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).Peer reviewe

Absence of an ageing-related increase in fibre type grouping in athletes and non-athletes.

The ageing-related loss of muscle mass is thought to be partly attributable to motor neuron loss and motor unit remodelling that result in fibre type grouping. We examined fibre type grouping in 19- to 85-year-old athletes and non-athletes and evaluated to which extent any observed grouping is explained by the fibre type composition of the muscle. Since regular physical activity may stimulate reinnervation, we hypothesised that fibre groups are larger in master athletes than in age-matched non-athletes. Fibre type grouping was assessed in m. vastus lateralis biopsies from 22 young (19-27 years) and 35 healthy older (66-82 years) non-athletes, and 14 young (20-29 years), 51 middle-aged (38-65 years) and 31 older (66-85 years) athletes. An 'enclosed fibre' was any muscle fibre of a particular type surrounded by fibres of the same type only. A fibre type group was defined as a group of fibres with at least one enclosed fibre. Only type II fibre cross-sectional area (FCSA) showed an age-related decline that was greater in athletes (p < 0.001) than in non-athletes (p = 0.012). There was no significant age-related effect on fibre group size or fibre group number in athletes or non-athletes, and the observed grouping was similar to that expected from the fibre type composition. At face value these observations do 1) neither show evidence for an age-related loss and remodelling of motor units nor 2) improved reinnervation with regular physical activity, but 3) histological examination may not reveal the full extent of ageing-related motor unit remodelling

Nonlinearities in exchange rate: evidence from smooth transition regression model

Abstract The purchasing power parity puzzle, exchange rate disconnection to macroeconomic fundamentals and pricing to market are central issues of international macroeconomics. Recent research has suggested that these issues can be presented by nonlinear behaviour. In this dissertation, we examine and explain the nonlinearities in the form of regime switching behaviour in real exchange rate series, exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals relation and exchange rate pass-through into consumer and import prices. Overall, we find evidence that nonlinearities are important in analysing empirical exchange rate models. The dissertation consists of four self-contained empirical studies. In chapter 2 we examine whether the Markov switching models and exponential smooth transition autoregressive models can give any additional insights into real exchange rate behaviour for several OECD countries. The results show that there are long swings in the real exchange rate series, which can be characterize as a depreciation and an appreciation regime. These regimes are very persistent, although the processes are eventually mean reverting. We estimate a multivariate smooth transition autoregressive model for the euro/dollar exchange rate in chapter 3. The significant point of our analysis is the possibility that a nonlinear specification for the exchange rate series might reveal aspects of the exchange rate dynamics that cannot be picked up by linear models. We find that the euro/dollar exchange rate may display random walk or near random walk behaviour within a certain range but the ability of the exchange rate to wander without any bound is limited by long-term government bond interest rate differentials. In chapter 4 we examine nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate for G-7 countries. We estimate a smooth transition error correction model that allows for parameter variation in the error correction form and interest rate differentials. The nonlinearity is determined by the inflation rate differentials between countries. We find significant error correction terms in monetary models. Our findings suggest the importance of nonlinear dynamics for examining deviations from the long-run equilibrium. We examine whether the degree of exchange rate pass-through is dependent on importing country inflation rate in chapter 5. Our model shows that import prices respond differently to exchange rate changes when we are in a high inflation regime compared to a low inflation regime. We also present empirical evidence by estimating pass-through elasticises for several OECD countries. We find that consumer prices are not very sensitive to exchange rate changes. For aggregate import prices, we find partial or full exchange rate pass-throughs. The tested nonlinear regime specific models proved appropriate for testing exchange rate dynamics for several currency pairs. Furthermore, we were able to present that macroeconomic fundamentals are important predictors of exchange rates

Misperception explains favorite-longshot bias:evidence from the Finnish and Swedish harness horse race markets

Abstract We use a unique data set from Finnish and Swedish horse race betting markets to explain the favorite-longshot bias. The data set includes a complete set of odds for exotic markets. We use the exotic market odds in conjunction with the win market odds and find convincing support for the misperceptions explanation of the favorite-longshot bias rather than the risk-love explanation. Furthermore, our data provide evidence of a specific type of failure to reduce compound lotteries. Namely, it seems that bettors do not assess the exotic market events as simple lotteries but instead consider the race for the first place and the race for the second place in a sequential form

Changes in risk preferences:evidence from Swedish harness horse racing data

Abstract We measure the time variation of risk preferences in real market data. We utilize data on Swedish tote-betting on horse races for the period 1995 to 2015 and show that risk preferences among horse-race bettors change with economic conditions. More specifically, we extract a measure of risk-aversion based on the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) and provide evidence that the computed measure follows the consumer-confidence index. In addition, we show by an application that the FLB-based risk-preference measure sharpens the predictions of a simple forecasting model for Swedish industrial production. Furthermore, we show that risk-aversion consistently increases following shocking news on disastrous events, including non-economic events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks. We argue that emotions, such as fear, are the likely explanation for this variation

Unemployment, global economic crises and suicides: evidence from 21 OECD countries

Abstract This study explores age- and gender-specific suicide mortality due to unemployment and economic crises, for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2011. The findings indicate that a higher unemployment rate leads to an increase in suicides in almost all age groups. Further, using dataset on economic/financial crisis events, results show that, in general, these crises increase suicide rates. However, the evidence also shows that economic crises have no effect on those in the 45 to 64 years age group in terms of suicides. Further, we assessed whether suicide mortality can be attributed to a ‘crisis effect’ beyond that of unemployment. For males, we found a significant joint effect between crises and unemployment. Finally, we investigated the possible nonlinear threshold response of suicides to unemployment. We found that suicides among young males (&lt;45 years) are due to marked increases in unemployment in association with global economic crises

Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate

Abstract Building on an extension of the Gordon (1962) growth model we propose a simple approach to forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate. This extension is rooted in introducing the Fisher (1930) and Euler equations, and in the open economy context, also the purchasing power parity (PPP) and the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) relations to the analysis. These equilibrium conditions suggest a forecasting system of three simple equations, all based on current financial market information in the form of dividend yields and short-term interest rate. Our empirical results indicate that the role of simple financial market information both in the forms of dividend yields and nominal interest rate is relevant for forecasting out-of-sample the time-varying underlying trends in the macroeconomic data for the U.K., Euro-zone and Japan, when treating the U.S. as the world market. Our results strongly stress the importance of including some measure of stock market performance in macroeconomic forecasting systems, especially during turbulent time periods in financial markets and macro economy

Self-employment and psychometric measure of risk aversion:a replication and extension

Abstract We examine whether the psychometric feature, called fear of uncertainty, predicts self-employment choice by individuals. Using the most recent Northern Finland birth cohort 1966 (NFBC1966) data from 2012, we find no clear evidence of such an effect. We also explore whether this effect might have changed due to increase of females in labour market, endogenous adaptation in risk preferences or because of the self-employment experience itself affects risk preferences. These effects are not significant, either

Economic crises and suicides between 1970 and 2011:time trend study in 21 developed countries

Abstract Background: Existing research on the relationship between economic recessions and suicides has almost completely concentrated on the most recent global financial crisis (2008). We provide the most comprehensive explanation to date of how different types of economic/financial crises since 1970 have affected suicides in developed countries. Methods: Negative binomial regressions were used to estimate what the suicide rates would have been during and 1 year after each crisis began in 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 1970 to 2011 if the suicide rates had followed the pre-crisis trends. Results: We found that every economic/financial crisis since 1970, except the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992, led to excess suicides in developed countries. Among males, the excess suicide rate (per 100 000 persons) varied from 1.1 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.5) to 9.5 (7.6 to 11.2) and, among females, from 0 to 2.4 (1.9 to 2.9). For both sexes, suicides increased mostly due to stock market crashes and banking crises. In terms of actual numbers, the post-1969 economic/financial crises caused >60 000 excess suicides in the 21 developed countries. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the most damaging crisis when assessed based on excess suicides. Conclusions: Evidence indicates that, when considered in terms of effects on suicide mortality, the most recent global financial crisis is not particularly severe compared with previous global economic/financial crises. The distinct types of crises (ie, banking, currency and inflation crises, and stock market crashes) have different effects on suicide

Unemployment and mental health:an instrumental variable analysis using municipal-level data for Finland for 2002–2019

Abstract We explore the effect of unemployment on mental health, using data from Finnish municipalities for the period 2002–2019. We measure mental illness using a mental morbidity index, as well as mental health care utilization and the use of antidepressants. There are significant differences across municipalities in Finland in both prevalence of mental health issues and illnesses, along with unemployment. Establishing a causal link between these two variables is challenging because of their reverse causality and joint determination. Using instrumental variable estimation, we establish a causal effect from unemployment to mental health. We present a strong connection between unemployment and mental health, especially for males between 25 and 64 years of age. Similar connection is not found among younger or older males, nor among females. Our findings are robust, since the results hold for various mental health measures. Our results reflect the possibility of differing mental health effects across the sources of unemployment