Is Lifelong Knee Joint Force from Work, Home, and Sport Related to Knee Osteoarthritis?

Purpose. To investigate the association of cumulative lifetime knee joint force on the risk of self-reported medically-diagnosed knee osteoarthritis (OA). Methods. Exposure data on lifetime physical activity type (occupational, household, sport/recreation) and dose (frequency, intensity, duration) were collected from 4,269 Canadian men and women as part of the Physical Activity and Joint Heath cohort study. Subjects were ranked in terms of the “cumulative peak force index”, a measure of lifetime mechanical knee force. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to obtain adjusted effects for mean lifetime knee force on the risk of knee OA. Results. High levels of total lifetime, occupational and household-related force were associated with an increased in risk of OA, with odds ratio’s ranging from approximately 1.3 to 2. Joint injury, high BMI and older age were related to risk of knee OA, consistent with previous studies. Conclusions. A newly developed measure of lifetime mechanical knee force from physical activity was employed to estimate the risk of self-reported, medically-diagnosed knee OA. While there are limitations, this paper suggests that high levels of total lifetime force (all domains combined), and occupational force in men and household force in women were risk factors for knee OA

COMPARING THE VALIDITY OF FIVE PARTICIPATION INSTRUMENTS IN PERSONS WITH SPINAL CONDITIONS

Objective: To evaluate and compare the construct validity of 5 participation instruments developed using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Methods: A total of 545 subjects diagnosed and treated for a spinal condition at an acute hospital were followed-up and consented to complete a questionnaire. Subjects completed 5 participation instruments (Impact on Participation and Autonomy (IPA), Keele Assessment of Participation (KAP), Participation Measure-Post Acute Care (PM-PAC), Participation Objective Participation Subjective (POPS), World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHODAS II)). In addition, each subject completed a health status instrument and a quality of life instrument. The dimensionality, convergent/discriminant validity and known-group validity of the participation instruments were assessed. Results: A confirmatory factor analysis of the facture structure for the IPA and PM-PAC demonstrated adequate model fit. For convergent/discriminant validity, correlations were generally higher among similar domains of the WHODAS II, IPA, KAP and PM-PAC, and as expected the lowest correlations were observed with the objective domains of the POPS. Most instruments demonstrated known-group validity. Conclusion: Differences in the construct validity evidence of the POPS compared with the other 4 instruments were noted. To date, there is no gold standard for measuring participation, and clinicians and researchers should consider the type of information required prior to selecting an instrument

Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models

Objective. Uncertainty analysis (UA) is an important part of simulation model validation. However, literature is imprecise as to how UA should be performed in the context of population-based microsimulation (PMS) models. In this expository paper, we discuss a practical approach to UA for such models. Methods. By adapting common concepts from published UA guidelines, we developed a comprehensive, step-by-step approach to UA in PMS models, including sample size calculation to reduce the computational time. As an illustration, we performed UA for POHEM-OA, a microsimulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada. Results. The resulting sample size of the simulated population was 500,000 and the number of Monte Carlo (MC) runs was 785 for 12-hour computational time. The estimated 95% uncertainty intervals for the prevalence of OA in Canada in 2021 were 0.09 to 0.18 for men and 0.15 to 0.23 for women. The uncertainty surrounding the sex-specific prevalence of OA increased over time. Conclusion. The proposed approach to UA considers the challenges specific to PMS models, such as selection of parameters and calculation of MC runs and population size to reduce computational burden. Our example of UA shows that the proposed approach is feasible. Estimation of uncertainty intervals should become a standard practice in the reporting of results from PMS models

The Effect of Disease Site (Knee, Hip, Hand, Foot, Lower Back or Neck) on Employment Reduction Due to Osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) has a significant impact on individuals' ability to work. Our goal was to investigate the effects of the site of OA (knee, hip, hand, foot, lower back or neck) on employment reduction due to OA (EROA).This study involved a random sample of 6,000 patients with OA selected from the Medical Service Plan database in British Columbia, Canada. A total of 5,491 were alive and had valid addresses, and of these, 2,259 responded (response rate = 41%), from which 2,134 provided usable data. Eligible participants were 19 or older with physician diagnosed OA based on administrative data between 1992 and 2006. Data of 688 residents were used (mean age 62.1 years (27 to 86); 60% women). EROA had three levels: no reduction; reduced hours; and total cessation due to OA. The (log) odds of EROA was regressed on OA sites, adjusting for age, sex, education and comorbidity. Odds ratios (ORs) represented the effect predicting total cessation and reduced hours/total cessation. The strongest effect was found in lower back OA, with OR = 2.08 (95% CI: 1.47, 2.94), followed by neck (OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.27) and knee (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.01). We found an interaction between sex and foot OA (men: OR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.05, 3.59; women: OR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.57, 1.39). No significant effect was found for hip OA (OR = 1.33) or hand OA (OR = 1.11). Limitations of this study included a modest response rate, the lack of an OA negative group, the use of administrative databases to identify eligible participants, and the use of patient self-reported data.After adjusting for socio-demographic variables, comorbidity, and other OA disease sites, we find that OA of the lower back, neck and knee are significant predictors for EROA. Foot OA is only significantly associated with EROA in males. For multi-site combinations, ORs are multiplicative. These findings may be used to guide resource allocation for future development/improvement of vocational rehabilitation programs for site-specific OA

Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Osteoarthritis Patients in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

Objectives. Our aim was to determine the risk of diabetes among osteoarthritis (OA) cases in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods. Administrative health records of 577,601 randomly selected individuals from British Columbia, Canada, from 1991 to 2009, were analyzed. OA and diabetes cases were identified by checking physician's visits and hospital records. From 1991 to 1996 we documented 19,143 existing OA cases and selected one non-OA individual matched by age, sex, and year of administrative records. Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the effects after adjusting for available sociodemographic and medical factors. Results. At baseline, the mean age of OA cases was 61 years and 60.5% were women. Over 12 years of mean follow-up, the incidence rate (95% CI) of diabetes was 11.2 (10.90-11.50) per 1000 person years. Adjusted RRs (95% CI) for diabetes were 1.27 (1.15-1.41), 1.21 (1.08-1.35), 1.16 (1.04-1.28), and 0.99 (0.86-1.14) for younger women (age 20-64 years), older women (age ≥ 65 years), younger men, and older men, respectively. Conclusion. Younger adults and older women with OA have increased risks of developing diabetes compared to their age-sex matched non-OA counterparts. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and to elucidate the potential mechanisms

Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Osteoarthritis Patients in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

Objectives. Our aim was to determine the risk of diabetes among osteoarthritis (OA) cases in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods. Administrative health records of 577,601 randomly selected individuals from British Columbia, Canada, from 1991 to 2009, were analyzed. OA and diabetes cases were identified by checking physician’s visits and hospital records. From 1991 to 1996 we documented 19,143 existing OA cases and selected one non-OA individual matched by age, sex, and year of administrative records. Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the effects after adjusting for available sociodemographic and medical factors. Results. At baseline, the mean age of OA cases was 61 years and 60.5% were women. Over 12 years of mean follow-up, the incidence rate (95% CI) of diabetes was 11.2 (10.90–11.50) per 1000 person years. Adjusted RRs (95% CI) for diabetes were 1.27 (1.15–1.41), 1.21 (1.08–1.35), 1.16 (1.04–1.28), and 0.99 (0.86–1.14) for younger women (age 20–64 years), older women (age ≥ 65 years), younger men, and older men, respectively. Conclusion. Younger adults and older women with OA have increased risks of developing diabetes compared to their age-sex matched non-OA counterparts. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and to elucidate the potential mechanisms

Validation of Administrative Osteoarthritis Diagnosis Using a Clinical and Radiological Population-Based Cohort

Objectives. The validity of administrative osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis in British Columbia, Canada, was examined against X-rays, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), self-report, and the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Methods. During 2002–2005, 171 randomly selected subjects with knee pain aged 40–79 years underwent clinical assessment for OA in the knee, hip, and hands. Their administrative health records were linked during 1991–2004, in which OA was defined in two ways: (AOA1) at least one physician’s diagnosis or hospital admission and (AOA2) at least two physician’s diagnoses in two years or one hospital admission. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were compared using four reference standards. Results. The mean age was 59 years and 51% were men. The proportion of OA varied from 56.3 to 89.7% among men and 77.4 to 96.4% among women according to reference standards. Sensitivity and specificity varied from 21 to 57% and 75 to 100%, respectively, and PPVs varied from 82 to 100%. For MRI assessment, the PPV of AOA2 was 100%. Higher sensitivity was observed in AOA1 than AOA2 and the reverse was true for specificity and PPV. Conclusions. The validity of administrative OA in British Columbia varied due to case definitions and reference standards. AOA2 is more suitable for identifying OA cases for research using this Canadian database

Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

Abstract Background Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. Methods We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. Results Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models. Conclusion As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility

Occurrence of Radiographic Osteoarthritis of the Knee and Hip Among African Americans and Whites: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

To compare the incidence and progression of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) in the knee and hip among African Americans and whites

Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990-2017 in comparison with other Central European countries : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND:Systematic collection of mortality/morbidity data over time is crucial for monitoring trends in population health, developing health policies, assessing the impact of health programs. In Poland, a comprehensive analysis describing trends in disease burden for major conditions has never been published. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides data on the burden of over 300 diseases in 195 countries since 1990. We used the GBD database to undertake an assessment of disease burden in Poland, evaluate changes in population health between 1990-2017, and compare Poland with other Central European (CE) countries. METHODS:The results of GBD 2017 for 1990 and 2017 for Poland and CE were used to assess rates and trends in years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Data came from cause-of-death registration systems, population health surveys, disease registries, hospitalization databases, and the scientific literature. Analytical approaches have been used to adjust for missing data, errors in cause-of-death certification, and differences in data collection methodology. Main estimation strategies were ensemble modelling for mortality and Bayesian meta-regression for disability. RESULTS:Between 1990-2017, age-standardized YLL rates for all causes declined in Poland by 46.0% (95% UI: 43.7-48.2), YLD rates declined by 4.0% (4.2-4.9), DALY rates by 31.7% (29.2-34.4). For both YLLs and YLDs, greater relative declines were observed for females. There was a large decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disease DALYs (48.2%; 46.3-50.4). DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) decreased slightly (2.0%; 0.1-4.6). In 2017, Poland performed better than CE as a whole (ranked fourth for YLLs, sixth for YLDs, and fifth for DALYs) and achieved greater reductions in YLLs and DALYs than most CE countries. In 2017 and 1990, the leading cause of YLLs and DALYs in Poland and CE was ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and the leading cause of YLDs was low back pain. In 2017, the top 20 causes of YLLs and YLDs in Poland and CE were the same, although in different order. In Poland, age-standardized DALYs from neonatal causes, other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, and road injuries declined substantially between 1990-2017, while alcohol use disorders and chronic liver diseases increased. The highest observed-to-expected ratios were seen for alcohol use disorders for YLLs, neonatal sepsis for YLDs, and falls for DALYs (3.21, 2.65, and 2.03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:There was relatively little geographical variation in premature death and disability in CE in 2017, although some between-country differences existed. Health in Poland has been improving since 1990; in 2017 Poland outperformed CE as a whole for YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. While the health gap between Poland and Western Europe has diminished, it remains substantial. The shift to NCDs and chronic disability, together with marked between-gender health inequalities, poses a challenge for the Polish health-care system. IHD is still the leading cause of disease burden in Poland, but DALYs from IHD are declining. To further reduce disease burden, an integrated response focused on NCDs and population groups with disproportionally high burden is needed