A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and …nancial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model which can accommodate virtually any of these speci…cations and does so in a simple way which allows for straightforward Bayesian inference. The basic idea underlying our model is that it adds two simple concepts to a standard state space framework. These ideas are ordering and distance. By ordering the data in various ways, we can accommodate a wide variety of nonlinear time series models, including those with regime-switching and structural breaks. By allowing the state equation variances to depend on the distance between observations, the parameters can evolve in a wide variety of ways, allowing for everything from models exhibiting abrupt change (e.g. threshold autoregressive models or standard structural break models) to those which allow for a gradual evolution of parameters (e.g. smooth transition autoregressive models or time varying parameter models). We show how our model will (approximately) nest virtually every popular model in the regime-switching and structural break literatures. Bayesian econometric methods for inference in this model are developed. Because we stay within a state space framework, these methods are relatively straightforward, drawing on the existing literature. We use arti…cial data to show the advantages of our approach, before providing two empirical illustrations involving the modeling of real GDP growth

Core-Core Dynamics in Spin Vortex Pairs

We investigate magnetic nano-pillars, in which two thin ferromagnetic nanoparticles are separated by a nanometer thin nonmagnetic spacer and can be set into stable spin vortex-pair configurations. The 16 ground states of the vortex-pair system are characterized by parallel or antiparallel chirality and parallel or antiparallel core-core alignment. We detect and differentiate these individual vortex-pair states experimentally and analyze their dynamics analytically and numerically. Of particular interest is the limit of strong core-core coupling, which we find can dominate the spin dynamics in the system. We observe that the 0.2 GHz gyrational resonance modes of the individual vortices are replaced with 2-6 GHz range collective rotational and vibrational core-core resonances in the configurations where the cores form a bound pair. These results demonstrate new opportunities in producing and manipulating spin states on the nanoscale and may prove useful for new types of ultra-dense storage devices where the information is stored as multiple vortex-core configurations

Understanding the self in relation to others: Infants spontaneously map another's face to their own at 16–26 months

The current study probed whether infants understand themselves in relation to others. Infants aged 16-26 months (n = 102) saw their parent wearing a sticker on their forehead or cheek, depending on experimental condition, placed unwitnessed by the child. Infants then received a sticker themselves, and their spontaneous behavior was coded. Regardless of age, from 16 months, all infants who placed the sticker on their cheek or forehead, placed it on the location on their own face matching their parent's placement. This shows that infants as young as 16 months of age have an internal map of their face in relation to others that they can use to guide their behavior. Whether infants placed the sticker on the matching location was related to other measures associated with self-concept development (the use of their own name and mirror self-recognition), indicating that it may reflect a social aspect of children's developing self-concept, namely their understanding of themselves in relation and comparison to others. About half of the infants placed the sticker on themselves, while others put it elsewhere in the surrounding, indicating an additional motivational component to bring about on themselves the state, which they observed on their parent. Together, infants' placement of the sticker in our task suggests an ability to compare, and motivation to align, self and others

Comparative Genomics Identifies Candidate Genes for Infectious Salmon Anemia (ISA) Resistance in Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar)

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) has been described as the hoof and mouth disease of salmon farming. ISA is caused by a lethal and highly communicable virus, which can have a major impact on salmon aquaculture, as demonstrated by an outbreak in Chile in 2007. A quantitative trait locus (QTL) for ISA resistance has been mapped to three microsatellite markers on linkage group (LG) 8 (Chr 15) on the Atlantic salmon genetic map. We identified bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) clones and three fingerprint contigs from the Atlantic salmon physical map that contains these markers. We made use of the extensive BAC end sequence database to extend these contigs by chromosome walking and identified additional two markers in this region. The BAC end sequences were used to search for conserved synteny between this segment of LG8 and the fish genomes that have been sequenced. An examination of the genes in the syntenic segments of the tetraodon and medaka genomes identified candidates for association with ISA resistance in Atlantic salmon based on differential expression profiles from ISA challenges or on the putative biological functions of the proteins they encode. One gene in particular, HIV-EP2/MBP-2, caught our attention as it may influence the expression of several genes that have been implicated in the response to infection by infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV). Therefore, we suggest that HIV-EP2/MBP-2 is a very strong candidate for the gene associated with the ISAV resistance QTL in Atlantic salmon and is worthy of further study

Bursts and Horizontal Evolution of DNA Transposons in the Speciation of Pseudotetraploid Salmonids

Background: Several genome duplications have occurred in the evolutionary history of teleostfish. In returning to a stable diploid state, the polyploid genome reorganized, and large portions arelost, while the fish lines evolved to numerous species. Large scale transposon movement has beenpostulated to play an important role in the genome reorganization process. We analyzed the DNAsequence of several large loci in Salmo salar and other species for the presence of DNA transposonfamilies.Results: We have identified bursts of activity of 14 families of DNA transposons (12 Tc1-like and2 piggyBac-like families, including 11 novel ones) in genome sequences of Salmo salar. Several ofthese families have similar sequences in a number of closely and distantly related fish, lamprey, andfrog species as well as in the parasite Schistosoma japonicum. Analysis of sequence similaritiesbetween copies within the families of these bursts demonstrates several waves of transpositionactivities coinciding with salmonid species divergence. Tc1-like families show a master gene-likecopying process, illustrated by extensive but short burst of copying activity, while the piggyBac-likefamilies show a more random copying pattern. Recent families may include copies with an openreading frame for an active transposase enzyme.Conclusion: We have identified defined bursts of transposon activity that make use of masterslaveand random mechanisms. The bursts occur well after hypothesized polyploidy events andcoincide with speciation events. Parasite-mediated lateral transfer of transposons are implicated