2,013 research outputs found
Re-examining the consumption-wealth relationship : the role of model uncertainty
This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. Following the recent influential workof Lettau and Ludvigson [e.g. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), (2004)], we use data on consumption, assets andlabor income and a vector error correction framework. Key …ndings of their work are that consumption doesrespond to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, but that most changes in wealth are transitoryand have no e¤ect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty andargue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We …nd that there is model uncertainty with regards to thenumber of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag length and whether the cointegratingresiduals a¤ect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implicationsdepends on the researcher's attitude towards the economic theory used by Lettau and Ludvigson. If we workwith their model, our findings are very similar to theirs. However, if we work with a broader set of models andlet the data speak, we obtain somewhat di¤erent results. In the latter case, we …nd that the exact magnitudeof the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the viewthat their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play
New Young Star Candidates in BRC 27 and BRC 34
We used archival Spitzer Space Telescope mid-infrared data to search for
young stellar objects (YSOs) in the immediate vicinity of two bright-rimmed
clouds, BRC 27 (part of CMa R1) and BRC 34 (part of the IC 1396 complex). These
regions both appear to be actively forming young stars, perhaps triggered by
the proximate OB stars. In BRC 27, we find clear infrared excesses around 22 of
the 26 YSOs or YSO candidates identified in the literature, and identify 16 new
YSO candidates that appear to have IR excesses. In BRC 34, the one
literature-identified YSO has an IR excess, and we suggest 13 new YSO
candidates in this region, including a new Class I object. Considering the
entire ensemble, both BRCs are likely of comparable ages, within the
uncertainties of small number statistics and without spectroscopy to confirm or
refute the YSO candidates. Similarly, no clear conclusions can yet be drawn
about any possible age gradients that may be present across the BRCs.Comment: 54 pages, 19 figures, accepted by A
Joint Elastic Side-Scattering Lidar and Raman Lidar Measurements of Aerosol Optical Properties in South East Colorado
We describe an experiment, located in south-east Colorado, USA, that measured
aerosol optical depth profiles using two Lidar techniques. Two independent
detectors measured scattered light from a vertical UV laser beam. One detector,
located at the laser site, measured light via the inelastic Raman
backscattering process. This is a common method used in atmospheric science for
measuring aerosol optical depth profiles. The other detector, located
approximately 40km distant, viewed the laser beam from the side. This detector
featured a 3.5m2 mirror and measured elastically scattered light in a bistatic
Lidar configuration following the method used at the Pierre Auger cosmic ray
observatory. The goal of this experiment was to assess and improve methods to
measure atmospheric clarity, specifically aerosol optical depth profiles, for
cosmic ray UV fluorescence detectors that use the atmosphere as a giant
calorimeter. The experiment collected data from September 2010 to July 2011
under varying conditions of aerosol loading. We describe the instruments and
techniques and compare the aerosol optical depth profiles measured by the Raman
and bistatic Lidar detectors.Comment: 34 pages, 16 figure
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
M\"ossbauer, nuclear inelastic scattering and density functional studies on the second metastable state of Na2[Fe(CN)5NO]2H2O
The structure of the light-induced metastable state SII of
Na2[Fe(CN)5NO]2H2O 14 was investigated by transmission M\"ossbauer
spectroscopy (TMS) in the temperature range 15 between 85 and 135 K, nuclear
inelastic scattering (NIS) at 98 K using synchrotron 16 radiation and density
functional theory (DFT) calculations. The DFT and TMS results 17 strongly
support the view that the NO group in SII takes a side-on molecular orientation
18 and, further, is dynamically displaced from one eclipsed, via a staggered,
to a second 19 eclipsed orientation. The population conditions for generating
SII are optimal for 20 measurements by TMS, yet they are modest for
accumulating NIS spectra. Optimization 21 of population conditions for NIS
measurements is discussed and new NIS experiments on 22 SII are proposed
Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks Using Bayesian Model Averaging
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