Forecasting the money multiplier: implications for money stock control and economic activity

Forecasting ; Money supply

Comparing Multi-State Kalman Filter and ARIMA forecasts: an application to the money multiplier

This paper derives one-month ahead forecasts of the money (M I) multiplier using the Multi-State Kalman Filter and Box-Jenkins ARIMA methods. A comparison of the forecasts far the period 1980-82 reveals that the Multi-State Kalman Filter procedure was generally superior to the ARIMA procedure In terms of most summary statistics. The superiority is traced to the turbulent period of 1980-81. This paper also compares aggregate and component forecasts of the multiplier. The aggregate Multi-State Kalman Filter was the most accurate in predicting the one-month ahead money multiplier.

Functional interplay between NTP leaving group and base pair recognition during RNA polymerase II nucleotide incorporation revealed by methylene substitution.

RNA polymerase II (pol II) utilizes a complex interaction network to select and incorporate correct nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) substrates with high efficiency and fidelity. Our previous 'synthetic nucleic acid substitution' strategy has been successfully applied in dissecting the function of nucleic acid moieties in pol II transcription. However, how the triphosphate moiety of substrate influences the rate of P-O bond cleavage and formation during nucleotide incorporation is still unclear. Here, by employing β,γ-bridging atom-'substituted' NTPs, we elucidate how the methylene substitution in the pyrophosphate leaving group affects cognate and non-cognate nucleotide incorporation. Intriguingly, the effect of the β,γ-methylene substitution on the non-cognate UTP/dT scaffold (∼3-fold decrease in kpol) is significantly different from that of the cognate ATP/dT scaffold (∼130-fold decrease in kpol). Removal of the wobble hydrogen bonds in U:dT recovers a strong response to methylene substitution of UTP. Our kinetic and modeling studies are consistent with a unique altered transition state for bond formation and cleavage for UTP/dT incorporation compared with ATP/dT incorporation. Collectively, our data reveals the functional interplay between NTP triphosphate moiety and base pair hydrogen bonding recognition during nucleotide incorporation

Jet Acceleration by Tangled Magnetic Fields

We explore the possibility that extragalactic radio jets might be accelerated by highly disorganized magnetic fields that are strong enough to dominate the dynamics until the terminal Lorentz factor is reached. Following the twin-exhaust model by Blandford & Rees (1974), the collimation under this scenario is provided by the stratified thermal pressure from an external medium. The acceleration efficiency then depends on the pressure gradient of that medium. In order for this mechanism to work there must be continuous tangling of the magnetic field, changing the magnetic equation of state away from pure flux freezing (otherwise conversion of Poynting flux to kinetic energy flux is suppressed). This is a complementary approach to models in which the plasma is accelerated by large scale ordered fields. We include a simple prescription for magnetic dissipation, which leads to tradeoffs among conversion of magnetic energy into bulk kinetic energy, random particle energy, and radiation. We present analytic dynamical solutions of such jets, assess the effects of radiation drag, and comment on observational issues, such as the predicted polarization and synchrotron brightness. Finally, we try to make the connection to observed radio galaxies and gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Reversed-phase liquid chromatography coupled on-line to estrogen receptor bioaffinity detection based on fluorescence polarization

We describe the development and validation of a high-resolution screening (HRS) platform which couples gradient reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) on-line to estrogen receptor α (ERα) affinity detection using fluorescence polarization (FP). FP, which allows detection at high wavelengths, limits the occurrence of interference from the autofluorescence of test compounds in the bioassay. A fluorescein-labeled estradiol derivative (E2-F) was synthesized and a binding assay was optimized in platereader format. After subsequent optimization in flow-injection analysis (FIA) mode, the optimized parameters were translated to the on-line HRS bioassay. Proof of principle was demonstrated by separating a mixture of five compounds known to be estrogenic (17β-estradiol, 17α-ethinylestradiol and the phytoestrogens coumestrol, coumarol and zearalenone), followed by post-column bioaffinity screening of the individual affinities for ERα. Using the HRS-based FP setup, we were able to screen affinities of off-line-generated metabolites of zearalenone for ERα. It is concluded that the on-line FP-based bioassay can be used to screen for the affinity of compounds without the disturbing occurrence of autofluorescence

Type Ia Supernovae: An Examination of Potential Progenitors and the Redshift Distribution

We examine the possibility that supernovae type Ia (SN Ia) are produced by white dwarfs accreting from Roche-lobe filling evolved companions, under the assumption that a strong optically thick stellar wind from accretor is able to stabilize the mass transfer. We show that if a mass transfer phase on a thermal timescale precedes a nuclear burning driven phase, then such systems (of which the supersoft X-ray sources are a subgroup) can account for about 10% of the inferred SN Ia rate. In addition, we examine the cosmic history of the supernova rate, and we show that the ratio of the rate of SN Ia to the rate of supernovae produced by massive stars (supernovae of types II, Ib, Ic) should increase from about z = 1 towards lower redshifts.Comment: 29 pages, Latex, 6 figures, aasms4.sty, psfig.sty, to appear in The Astrophysical Journa

Milieueffecten van Nederlandse consumptie van eiwitrijke producten : gevolgen van vervanging van dierlijke eiwitten anno 2008

In 2008 heeft Blonk Milieu Advies in samenwerking met de vegetariërsbond en het LEI een onderzoek uitgevoerd naar de milieueffecten van een verschuiving van consumptie van dierlijke naar plantaardige eiwitten in de Nederlandse voeding. Daarbij is vooral de focus gelegd op het broeikaseffect en het ruimtebeslag en de mogelijke biodiversiteitseffecten daarvan. Daarnaast is er meer kwalitatief aandacht besteed aan andere effecten zoals dierenwelzijn en de effecten van een consumptiestop van dierlijke producten op de productiekolom van dierlijke producten in Nederlan