Przegląd metod i technik badawczych stosowanych w programach foresight

The aim of the paper is to present methods and techniques used in foresight programmes. The most popular methods applied in EU countries have been described in detail, namely scenarios, Delphi method, expert panels, SWOT analysis, brainstorming and trend extrapolation. Methods have been classified according to various criteria, with the following dimensions being identified among them: exploratory - normative, quantitative - qualitative, bottom-up - top-down, heuristic - analytical, creative - based on scientific evidence, real environment-based - virtual environment-based. The authors analyse the degree to which selected methods are applied at various geographical levels, i.e. national, international, trans-European and cross-border.Celem artykułu jest prezentacja metod i technik badawczych wykorzystywanych w programach foresight. Autorzy szczegółowo charakteryzują metody i techniki najczęściej wykorzystywane w projektach typu foresight realizowanych w krajach Unii Europejskiej, tj. analizę scenariuszową, metodę delficką, panele eksperckie, analizę SWOT, burzę mózgów oraz metodę ekstrapolacji trendów. Dokonują klasyfikacji poszczególnych metod według różnych kryteriów, wyodrębniając metody: eksploracyjne - normatywne; ilościowe - jakościowe; bottom-up - top-down; heurystyczne - analityczne; twórcze - oparte na dowodach naukowych; oparte na pracy w środowisku realnym - oparte na pracy w środowisku wirtualnym. Analizują również stopień wykorzystania wybranych metod na różnych obszarach: narodowym, międzynarodowym, transeuropejskim i transgranicznym

Powiązania foresightu regionalnego z nowoczesnym zarządzaniem przedsiębiorstwem produkcyjnym

The aim of the article is to present the relationship between regional foresight and modern management of a manufacturing enterprise. The article discusses different types and stages of regional foresight, gives an overview of Polish regional foresight programmes and presents governmental initiatives aimed at promoting foresight. The authors modify the set of factors which influence strategies of manufacturing enterprises and prove that active participation in regional foresight as well as monitoring of outputs from other foresight projects may bring tangible benefits in the long-term perspective.Celem artykułu jest ukazanie powiązań foresightu regionalnego z nowoczesnym zarządzaniem przedsiębiorstwem produkcyjnym. Autorzy opisują rodzaje oraz etapy realizacji foresightu regionalnego, dokonują przeglądu polskich foresightów regionalnych, a także przedstawiają rządowe programy służące działaniom typu foresight. Dokonują przy tym modyfikacji czynników wpływających na strategię przedsiębiorstwa produkcyjnego, dowodząc, że uczestnictwo w foresightcie regionalnym oraz obserwowanie wyników innych projektów typu foresight może być, w perspektywie długoterminowej, źródłem wymiernych korzyści

Roadmapping as a method enhancing regional development

The aim of the article is to present roadmapping as method enhancing regional development. The idea of the method, manifests itself in integration of science and technology with business practice. In the article, there have been presented a short description of the method, the exemplary characteristics of the roadmapping process and its visualisation for the chosen priority technology groups defined for the Podlaskie region in the project entitled NT FOR Podlaskie 2020. Regional strategy of nanotechnology development. The project was granted financial support from the EU Operational Programme “Innovative Economy 2007–2013”. An interesting element of the roadmapping process in the Polish foresight practice, presented in the article, is the application of the Watson’s concept for the time zones visualisation to the graphical presentation of the method. The roadmapping methodology applied to the project has allowed to prepare seven roadmaps of the priority technologies that might contribute to creating a competitive advantage of the region. In the article, there have been used critical literature review, survey research, the method of logical analysis and construction and a case study

DETERMINANTS OF DIFFERENTIATION FOR SELECTED COUNTY LABOUR MARKETS IN PODLASKIE VOIVODSHIP – THE APPLICATION OF THE SCENARIO METHOD

The main aim of the paper is to present the possibilities of scenario method use for the identification of the factors determining a different situation in selected county labour markets in Podlaskie Voivodship, Poland. The novelty posited by the authors of the paper consisted in the application of the qualitative method based on the intuitive logic school of scenario construction for the county labour markets analysis. The following pairs of poviats were subjected to the case study: Hajnowski and Bielski, Grajewski and Wysokomazowiecki, Suwalski and Sejneński. The selection of the experts of the presented case study followed the rules of researcher triangulation. The expert team consisted of representatives of labour market institutions, local government units and enterprises, which allowed for a multifaceted view on the analysed issues. The scenario method was preceded by the STEEPVL analysis. The main problem issue undertaken during the case study analysis was the identification of factors affecting the development of selected poviats and the assessment of these factors in terms of validity and uncertainty. The STEEPVL analysis and the scenario method were implemented for poviats, which in pairs of poviats occupy lower positions in the ranking of poviats in the region. The research methods applied by the authors of the paper were literature review, a case study, STEEPVL analysis and the scenario method

Przegląd projektów foresightu branżowego w Polsce

As an instrument used to anticipate the future, foresight has a fairly short history in Poland. The first steps to promote the idea of foresight were taken by the Ministry of Science and Informatisation in 2003-2005 when the Pilot Foresight Project in the Health and Life research field was carried out. In 2006 the National Foresight Programme Poland 2020 was launched, with 8 regional and 10 industry foresight exercises running in parallel. This paper aims to provide a detailed picture of industry foresight projects carried out in Poland, describing them in terms of theme, objectives, expected results, stakeholders, geographical distribution, time frame and research horizon, methods applied, budgets and sources of funding. Furthermore, the paper identifies special characteristics of Polish industrial foresight exercises against the background of similar projects in other European countries, adopting the following criteria: number of projects, methodologies and research areas analysed.Foresight, jako narzędzie antycypowania przyszłości, ma w Polsce krótką historię. Działania sprzyjające promowaniu idei foresightu zostały zainicjowane w latach 2003-2005 przez Ministerstwo Nauki i Informatyzacji w formie Pilotażowego Programu Foresight w polu badawczym „Zdrowie i Życie”. W 2006 r. rozpoczęto realizację Narodowego Programu Foresight „Polska 2020”; prowadzi się także osiem projektów regionalnych oraz dziesięć projektów branżowych. Celem artykułu jest szczegółowa prezentacja projektów branżowych typu foresight realizowanych w Polsce, pod kątem tematyki, celów, oczekiwanych rezultatów, interesariuszy, rozmieszczenia geograficznego, ram i horyzontu czasowego, a także zastosowanych metod, budżetu i źródeł finansowania. Autorzy zwracają również uwagę na specyfikę polskich projektów foresightu branżowego na tle innych państw Europy, przyjmując za kryteria wyróżniające: liczbę projektów, metodykę oraz obszary badawcze będące przedmiotem analiz

The critical analysis of scenario construction in the Polish foresight initiatives

The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40

How do companies envisage the future?: Functional foresight approaches

The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), nonprofit-organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes

Comparative studies on the fatty acid profile and volatile compounds of fallow deer and beef fermented sausages without nitrite produced with the addition of acid whey

This study aims to improve knowledge on fermented beef and fallow deer sausages and the effect of nitrite elimination and the addition of freeze dried acid whey on the fatty acid profile and volatile compounds. Three different formulations within each of the two product groups, made of beef and fallow deer meat, respectively, were prepared: control sample with sodium nitrite, sample without nitrite, and sample without nitrite and with the addition of freeze-dried acid whey powder (0.7%). After production, the sausages were subjected to analysis including proximate chemical composition, pH and water activity, Thiobarbituric Acid Reactive Substance (TBARS), fatty acid profile, and volatile compound determination. The fermented sausages were characterized by an average pH and water activity in the range of 5.23–5.79 and 0.910–0.918, respectively. Fallow deer sausages were characterized by a higher content of saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids in comparison to beef sausages. The elimination of nitrite did not significantly affect the amount of volatile compounds in fermented sausages. However, the effect of the freeze-dried acid whey powder addition on the amount of some volatile compounds in uncured sausages was observed, in particular, that derived from bacterial metabolism.Axencia Galega de Innovación | Ref. IN607A2019 / 01Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA) | Ref. CPD2016-0030Programa Iberoamericano de Ciencia y Tecnología para el Desarrollo (CYTED) | Ref. 119RT056

Kierunki rozwoju nanotechnologii w województwie podlaskim. Mapy. Marszruty. Trendy

W monografii zaprezentowano możliwe kierunki rozwoju nanotechnologii w województwie podlaskim opracowane w ramach projektu badawczego „Foresight technologiczny «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regionalna strategia rozwoju nanotechnologii”.Joanicjusz Nazark

The future of business in Visegrad region

The paper aims to advance Futures Research by outlining the context and development perspectives of business Foresight in Visegrad region (that is in: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). Authors apply their research to tackle present challenges associated with the limited awareness of Foresight and constrained access to Foresight training offer in the region, which leads to insufficient Futures Literacy competences among managers and thus stiffens the opportunity to take advantage of Foresight in business practice. The paper presents two perspectives of analyzing business futures. A macro perspective, which concerns possible development scenarios of Visegrad economies, and a micro perspective, which concerns possible development scenarios of individual companies from Visegrad region. The methodology for the macro analyses involves the discussion of the futures of business in Visegrad economies based on quantitative indicators related to trade balance, foreign direct investment and SMEs prevalence analysed over 2002 – 2014 period. Whereas, the results derived from the micro level analysis are based on the expert-based scenario building exercise executed by Visegrad entrepreneurs participating in a 2- day international Foresight workshop. The research portrays the results achieved so far in the FOR_V4 project: BMobilising Corporate Foresight potential among V4 countries^, which aims to bring futures knowledge and techniques to managers, who are expected to become BCorporate foresight evangelists^ in Visegrad region