Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales

Global Biodiversity Governance: What Needs to Be Transformed?

The Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) (the Post-2020 Framework) is expected to embody transformative change through the adoption of the framework’s “Theory of Change” (CBD, 2020). Its implementation must recognize that the global biodiversity governance architecture needs to transform to lead the required personal and social transformations, including shifts in values, beliefs and patterns of social behaviors (Chaffin et al., 2016), necessary to successfully tackle biodiversity loss. Against this backdrop, the overarching goal of this chapter is to analyze what needs to be transformed in global biodiversity governance, including institutional structures that shape values, beliefs and behavioral change. The chapter examines obstacles and opportunities for transformation, with the indirect objective of informing implementation of the Post-2020 Framework; at the time of writing, the CBD is expected to adopt the Post-2020 GBF in 2022

Mainstreaming biodiversity in economic sectors: An analytical framework

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Mainstreaming biodiversity in economic sectors : An analytical framework

One of the major challenges in halting biodiversity loss is finding ways to address the issue in places where it would matter most; in the economic sectors of society that exert the strongest pressures on biodiversity such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Governments have acknowledged the need for this so termed mainstreaming under the Convention on Biological Diversity, but in practice have made little progress and struggle to find ways forward. In this paper we argue that the concept of mainstreaming was originally developed for situations where governments or intergovernmental organizations with explicit public mandates took the lead, but it is increasingly extended into various governance contexts where multiple types of actors at different levels (could) engage in conserving biodiversity. This paper aims to enable the identification of innovative repertoires of mainstreaming opportunities that optimally and realistically benefits from the broader governance context. Therefore it presents a framework, consisting of institutional, motivational and means dimensions for identifying key barriers and levers for mainstreaming biodiversity into economic sectors. By applying the framework on the forestry sector we show that it does not only help to identify new mainstreaming opportunities but it also shows directions for improving existing schemes as well

Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies within a 2 degree warmer and food-secure world

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective climate mitigation they will be insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs better for terrestrial biodiversity protection (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Red List Index, geometric mean abundance) in currently still natural regions, reflecting global conservation priorities. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating ecosystem services (pest control, pollination, erosion control), reflecting regional priorities. However, ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) compared to the baseline and limited reduction of global temperature increase. Only when conservation strategies are combined with climate change mitigation efforts and additional actions especially in the agricultural and energy system into a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, both conservation strategies result in restoring biodiversity to current values or even some improvement, while keeping global warming below two degrees and keeping food security risks below baseline. Minimizing food wastes and reducing consumption of animal products will be crucia

Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity

Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity