Ensemble-Based Methods for Forecasting Census in Hospital Units

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009

Absence of an embryonic stem cell DNA methylation signature in human cancer.

BackgroundDifferentiated cells that arise from stem cells in early development contain DNA methylation features that provide a memory trace of their fetal cell origin (FCO). The FCO signature was developed to estimate the proportion of cells in a mixture of cell types that are of fetal origin and are reminiscent of embryonic stem cell lineage. Here we implemented the FCO signature estimation method to compare the fraction of cells with the FCO signature in tumor tissues and their corresponding nontumor normal tissues.MethodsWe applied our FCO algorithm to discovery data sets obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and replication data sets obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) data repository. Wilcoxon rank sum tests, linear regression models with adjustments for potential confounders and non-parametric randomization-based tests were used to test the association of FCO proportion between tumor tissues and nontumor normal tissues. P-values of < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsAcross 20 different tumor types we observed a consistently lower FCO signature in tumor tissues compared with nontumor normal tissues, with 18 observed to have significantly lower FCO fractions in tumor tissue (total n = 6,795 tumor, n = 922 nontumor, P < 0.05). We replicated our findings in 15 tumor types using data from independent subjects in 15 publicly available data sets (total n = 740 tumor, n = 424 nontumor, P < 0.05).ConclusionsThe results suggest that cancer development itself is substantially devoid of recapitulation of normal embryologic processes. Our results emphasize the distinction between DNA methylation in normal tightly regulated stem cell driven differentiation and cancer stem cell reprogramming that involves altered methylation in the service of great cell heterogeneity and plasticity

Developmental Genes Targeted for Epigenetic Variation between Twin-Twin Transfusion Syndrome Children

Background: Epigenetic mechanisms are thought to be critical in mediating the role of the intrauterine environment on lifelong health and disease. Twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is a rare condition wherein fetuses share the placenta and develop vascular anastomoses, which allow blood to flow between the fetuses. The unequal flow results in reciprocal hypo- and hypervolemia in the affected twins, striking growth differences and physiologic adaptations in response to this significant stressor. The donor twin in the TTTS syndrome can be profoundly growth restricted and there is likely a nutritional imbalance between the twins. The consequences of TTTS on fetal programming are unknown. This condition can now be effectively treated through the use of fetal laparoscopic procedures, but the potential for lifelong morbidity related to this condition during development is apparent. As this condition and the resulting uteroplacental discordance can play a role in the epigenetic process, we sought to investigate the DNA methylation profiles of childhood survivors of TTTS (n = 14). We focused on differences in both global measures and genome-wide CpG specific DNA methylation between donor and recipient children in this pilot study in order to generate hypotheses for further research. Results: We identified significant hypomethylation of the LINE1 repetitive element in the peripheral blood of donor children and subtle variation in the genome-wide profiles of CpG specific methylation most prominent at CpG sites which are targets for polycomb group repressive complexes. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that coordinated epigenetic alterations result from the intrauterine environment experienced by infants with TTTS and may, at least in part, be responsible for downstream health conditions experienced by individuals surviving this condition

DNA Methylation Arrays as Surrogate Measures of Cell mixture Distribution

There has been a long-standing need in biomedical research for a method that quantifies the normally mixed composition of leukocytes beyond what is possible by simple histological or flow cytometric assessments. The latter is restricted by the labile nature of protein epitopes, requirements for cell processing, and timely cell analysis. In a diverse array of diseases and following numerous immune-toxic exposures, leukocyte composition will critically inform the underlying immuno-biology to most chronic medical conditions. Emerging research demonstrates that DNA methylation is responsible for cellular differentiation, and when measured in whole peripheral blood, serves to distinguish cancer cases from controls

Differential DNA Methylation in Umbilical Cord Blood of Infants Exposed to Low Levels of Arsenic in Utero

Background: There is increasing epidemiologic evidence that arsenic exposure in utero, even at low levels found throughout much of the world, is associated with adverse reproductive outcomes and may contribute to long-term health effects. Animal models, in vitro studies, and human cancer data suggest that arsenic may induce epigenetic alterations, specifically by altering patterns of DNA methylation. Objectives: In this study we aimed to identify differences in DNA methylation in cord blood samples of infants with in utero, low-level arsenic exposure. Methods: DNA methylation of cord-blood derived DNA from 134 infants involved in a prospective birth cohort in New Hampshire was profiled using the Illumina Infinium Methylation450K array. In utero arsenic exposure was estimated using maternal urine samples collected at 24–28 weeks gestation. We used a novel cell mixture deconvolution methodology for examining the association between inferred white blood cell mixtures in infant cord blood and in utero arsenic exposure; we also examined the association between methylation at individual CpG loci and arsenic exposure levels. Results: We found an association between urinary inorganic arsenic concentration and the estimated proportion of CD8+ T lymphocytes (1.18; 95% CI: 0.12, 2.23). Among the top 100 CpG loci with the lowest p-values based on their association with urinary arsenic levels, there was a statistically significant enrichment of these loci in CpG islands (p = 0.009). Of those in CpG islands (n = 44), most (75%) exhibited higher methylation levels in the highest exposed group compared with the lowest exposed group. Also, several CpG loci exhibited a linear dose-dependent relationship between methylation and arsenic exposure. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that in utero exposure to low levels of arsenic may affect the epigenome. Long-term follow-up is planned to determine whether the observed changes are associated with health outcomes

Methylation of Leukocyte DNA and Ovarian Cancer: Relationships with Disease Status and Outcome

Genome-wide interrogation of DNA methylation (DNAm) in blood-derived leukocytes has become feasible with the advent of CpG genotyping arrays. In epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), one report found substantial DNAm differences between cases and controls; however, many of these disease-associated CpGs were attributed to differences in white blood cell type distributions. We examined blood-based DNAm in 336 EOC cases and 398 controls; we included only high-quality CpG loci that did not show evidence of association with white blood cell type distributions to evaluate association with case status and overall survival

Enhanced cell deconvolution of peripheral blood using DNA methylation for high-resolution immune profiling

DNA methylation microarrays can be employed to interrogate cell-type composition in complex tissues. Here, we expand reference-based deconvolution of blood DNA methylation to include 12 leukocyte subtypes (neutrophils, eosinophils, basophils, monocytes, naïve and memory B cells, naïve and memory CD4 + and CD8 + T cells, natural killer, and T regulatory cells). Including derived variables, our method provides 56 immune profile variables. The IDOL (IDentifying Optimal Libraries) algorithm was used to identify libraries for deconvolution of DNA methylation data for current and previous platforms. The accuracy of deconvolution estimates obtained using our enhanced libraries was validated using artificial mixtures and whole-blood DNA methylation with known cellular composition from flow cytometry. We applied our libraries to deconvolve cancer, aging, and autoimmune disease datasets. In conclusion, these libraries enable a detailed representation of immune-cell profiles in blood using only DNA and facilitate a standardized, thorough investigation of immune profiles in human health and disease