Optimization of the prescribed cut planning to quantify financial yield losses like the climate change at the example of the municipal forest enterprise Zittau

Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird den Fragen nach der Identifikation und der finanziellen Bewertung von Ertragseinbußen in der forstlichen Produktion nachgegangen. Am Beispiel wird auf die Folgen von möglicherweise durch den Klimawandel zu erwartenden Wachstumseinschränkungen, von Ausfallrisiken der Bestände sowie von Hiebsatzbeschränkungen und Kulturkosten auf den Ertragswert von Forstbetrieben eingegangen. Anhand von für den kommunalen Forstbetrieb der Stadt Zittau erzielten Ergebnissen wird gezeigt, dass die Abweichung vom finanziell optimalen Einschlagzeitpunkt sowie hohe Kulturkosten, weit größeren Einfluss haben können als Klimawandel und Ausfallrisiko.This paper shows how to identify and estimate financial losses in the forest production. As an example, the consequences of a potenzial climate change and the influence by biophysical risk for stands, as well as limitations of annual harvest and high afforestation costs on the net present value of forest enterprises are demonstrated. Taking the results from a case study for the forest owned by the town Zittau, we show that the deviation of harvest from the optimal age under financial aspects and the costs for afforestation could have a significantly higher importance on the yield than climate change and hazard risks

The valuation of forest ecosystem services as a tool for management planning – A choice experiment

Forest owners and managers deal with an increasing demand for forest ecosystem services (ES). In addition, a recent change can be observed from a governmental top-down approach to bottom-up initiatives, including efforts of the local population to have a say in forest management decisions. Matching supply and demand is seen as a basic condition for the sustainable utilization of forest ES. Against this background, we address the following research questions: (i) How can the preferences on the supply and demand side of forest ES be consistently determined? (ii) In how far do these preferences vary due to regional and societal differences? (iii) How can the supply and demand of forest ES be matched by forest management alternatives? We conducted a survey in Switzerland with foresters and the wider population to compare attitudes and preferences of the supply and demand side of forest ES. The core of the study is a choice experiment (CE) to elicit the population’s willingness to pay (WTP) for specific forest management alternatives, and the respective will- ingness to accept (WTA) on the foresters’ side. To address spatial and societal heterogeneity, we compare different geographic forest zones and settlement areas

Die allgemein anerkannten Regeln der Technik aus der Sicht des Richters

Wenn ein Jurist einen Begriff wie "allgemein anerkannte Regeln der Technik" serviert bekommt, läuft ihm gewissermaßen das Wasser im Munde zusammen in der Vorfreude darauf, diesen Begriff zu definieren. So schwer es mir fällt, möchte ich dennoch, jedenfalls vorläufig, auf eine solche Definition verzichten, zumal solche Definitionen heute im Verlauf dieser Veranstaltung schon zur Sprache gekommen sind. Den Schwerpunkt will ich auf den zweiten Teil des Themas setzen, auf die - praktische- Sicht des Richters. Dazu legitimiert mich meine Tätigkeit als Richter am Oberlandesgericht Celle, wo ich als Mitglied eines Zivilsenats zum erheblichen Teil mit Bausachen zu tun habe. Die allgemein anerkannten Regeln der Technik begegnen dem Richter natürlich auch in anderen Bereichen, insbesondere im Haftungsrecht und im Verwaltungsrecht. Bitte erlauben Sie mir aber, mich meiner praktischen Erfahrung entsprechend im wesentlichen auf das Bauvertragsrecht zu beschränken. Ich hoffe, daß trotz dieser Einschränkung die typisch richterliche Sichtweise deutlich wird

Determining Statistically Robust Changes in Ungulate Browsing Pressure as a Basis for Adaptive Wildlife Management

Ungulate browsing has a major impact on the composition and structure of forests. Repeatedly conducted, large-scale regeneration inventories can monitor the extent of browsing pressure and its impacts on forest regeneration development. Based on the respective results, the necessity and extent of wildlife management activities such as hunting, fencing, etc., can be identified at a landscape scale. However, such inventories have rarely been integrated into wildlife management decision making. In this article, we evaluate a regeneration inventory method which was carried out in the Bavarian Forest National Park between 2007 and 2018. We predict the browsing impact by calculating browsing probabilities using a logistic mixed effect model. To provide wildlife managers with feedback on their activities, we developed a test which can assess significant changes in browsing probability between different inventory periods. To find the minimum observable browsing probability change, we simulated ungulate browsing based on the data of a potential browsing indicator species (Sorbus aucuparia) in the National Park. Sorbus aucuparia is evenly distributed, commonly found, selectively browsed and meets the ecosystem development objectives in our study area. We were able to verify a browsing probability change down to ±5 percentage points with a sample size of about 1,000 observations per inventory run. In view of the size of the National Park and the annual fluctuations in browsing pressure, this estimation accuracy seems sufficient. In seeking the maximal cost-efficiency, we were able to reduce this sample size in a sensitivity analysis by about two thirds without severe loss of information for wildlife management. Based on our findings, the presented inventory method combined with our evaluation tool has the potential to be a robust and efficient instrument to assess the impact of herbivores that are in the National Park and other region.publishedVersio

Economic Consequences of Different Management Approaches to Even-Aged Silver Fir Forests

Economic analysis of even-aged fir stand management was illustrated using the example of the forests of the Croatian Dinaric region, as well as their transformation into more stable unevenaged structures. Two scenarios (even-aged, uneven-aged) were simulated against the backdrop of the existing forest stand structure of future forest stand management during a 140-year period using forest growth modeling software MOSES version 3.0 in order to identify economic differences amongst different scenarios both at stand level and at forest level. The research included forest management analysis throughout the transformation period and subsequently the continuation of balanced state forest management. Moreover, the research also provided the opportunity of forest purchase within the price range from 1000 to 12,500 EUR/ha, amid assumed fluctuation of selling prices of timber assortments throughout the simulation period. Discount rates from 1% to 5% were used during the economic analysis. The research findings showed that, according to harvesting costs, Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return, uneven-aged forest management system, including the transformation period, achieved superior economic results, albeit at discount rates that exceeded 1.24%. The conclusion was reached that, according to all economic criteria, uneven-aged mixed silver fir-beech management system is preferred compared with the pure even-aged silver fir management

Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech?

International audienceKey message Economic consequences of altered survival probabilities under climate change should be considered for regeneration planning in Southeast Germany. Findings suggest that species compositions of mixed stands obtained from continuous optimization may buffer but not completely mitigate economic consequences. Mixed stands of Norway spruce (Picea abiesL. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvaticaL.) (considering biophysical interactions between tree species) were found to be more robust, against both perturbations in survival probabilities and economic input variables, compared to block mixtures (excluding biophysical interactions).ContextClimate change is expected to increase natural hazards in European forests. Uncertainty in expected tree mortality and resulting potential economic consequences complicate regeneration decisions.AimsThis study aims to analyze the economic consequences of altered survival probabilities for mixing Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climate change scenarios. We investigate whether management strategies such as species selection and type of mixture (mixed stands vs. block mixture) could mitigate adverse financial effects of climate change.MethodsThe bio-economic modelling approach combines a parametric survival model with modern portfolio theory. We estimate the economically optimal species mix under climate change, accounting for the biophysical and economic effects of tree mixtures. The approach is demonstrated using an example from Southeast Germany.ResultsThe optimal tree species mixtures under simulated climate change effects could buffer but not completely mitigate undesirable economic consequences. Even under optimally mixed forest stands, the risk-adjusted economic value decreased by 28%. Mixed stands economically outperform block mixtures for all climate scenarios.ConclusionOur results underline the importance of mixed stands to mitigate the economic consequences of climate change. Mechanistic bio-economic models help to understand consequences of uncertain input variables and to design purposeful adaptation strategies

On the functional relationship between biodiversity and economic value

Biodiversity’s contribution to human welfare has become a key argument for maintaining and enhancing biodiversity in managed ecosystems. The functional relationship between biodiversity (b) and economic value (V) is, however, insufficiently understood, despite the premise of a positive-concave bV relationship that dominates scientific and political arenas. Here, we review how individual links between biodiversity, ecosystem functions (F), and services affect resulting bV relationships. Our findings show that bV relationships are more variable, also taking negative-concave/convex or strictly concave and convex forms. This functional form is driven not only by the underlying bF relationship but also by the number and type of ecosystem services and their potential trade-offs considered, the effects of inputs, and the type of utility function used to represent human preferences. Explicitly accounting for these aspects will enhance the substance and coverage of future valuation studies and allow more nuanced conclusions, particularly for managed ecosystems

The forest of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

In this study, the historical peculiarities and the site conditions of the forest of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany, are surveyed. Results from an extended forest inventory, which includes students' contributions, are summarized. Guidelines for current and future forest management are also discussed. The university forest supply manifold opportunities for teaching and training. In addition, they can be utilized efficiently for corresponding research projects. These forests bridge the gap between academic educational targets and actual practice. Interdisciplinary issues, research networking and links to the job market are significant requirements as well. Direct ownership by the respective university or by any other educational institution helps substantially to realize objectives in teaching and research. In the case of extemal ownership, long-lasting contracts and flexible management regulations, which grant scientific and educational liberties, are essential

Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions

Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time

Opportunity Costs of In Situ Carbon Storage Derived by Multiple-Objective Stand-Level Optimization-Results from Case Studies in Portugal and Germany

Considering in situ carbon storage in forest management has gained momentum under increasing pressure to decarbonize our economies. Here, we present results from case studies in Portugal and Germany showing the opportunity costs of in situ carbon storage derived by multiple-objective optimization. We used a stand-level model to optimize land expectation value under uncertainty as a reference, then derived opportunity costs by including the enhancement of the average carbon storage in aboveground biomass as a second objective. Using the optimal (compromise) solution when considering both objectives simultaneously, we show opportunity costs of EUR 119 (Portugal) and EUR 68 (Germany) per Mg CO2eq. These opportunity costs are higher than conservative, but lower than alternative cost estimates for future damages caused by current CO2 emissions. An important result was that suggested reference solutions in both countries (though only for low discount rates in Portugal) were mixed forests without clearfelling. In Germany, this implicitly elevated carbon storage. Such "closer-to-nature-forest-management" systems were also mostly suggested by the optimization tool when carbon storage was an objective