A Systemic Analysis of Impacts of Individual and Shared Automated Mobility in Austria

Rationale: Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. A decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (boyhood) dream. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly becoming a reality, with a series of real-world trial applications underway. Government plans and industry predictions expect automation to be introduced from the early 2020s onwards. Nevertheless, there is still a high level of uncertainty in which form and to what extent automated vehicles will enter the market. Furthermore, there are ongoing discussions concerning net effects of positive and negative aspects of automation. Background: The authors have been involved in several research projects analyzing potential impacts of automated driving. The EU funded project CityMobil (Towards Advanced Road Transport for the Urban Environment) was one of first to address automated driving on a large scale. As part of this project the System Dynamics based model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) was adapted to assess scenarios of automated driving in four European cities. Simulations demonstrated that automated vehicles integrated into public transport have a potential to reduce car kilometers travelled and improve carbon footprint. On the contrary, privately owned automated vehicles lead to an increase in car kilometers travelled and carbon footprint, unless propulsion technology is changed. While the focus of CityMobil was on the urban scale, the nationally funded Austrian project Shared Autonomy (Potential Effects of the Take-up of Automated Vehicles in Rural Areas – own translation) focused on rural areas. The findings of Shared Autonomy show potential contributions of automated cars to improve the environmental situation and social inclusion in rural areas. Finally, the nationally funded Austrian project SAFiP (System Scenarios Automated Driving in Personal Mobility) takes a look at the national territory of Austria. Method: The relationship between vehicle automation, travel demand and environmental effects consists of a multitude of complex cause-effect-chains. The toolbox of System Dynamics offers appropriate methods to tackle such complexities. Causal Loop Diagrams are used to analyze and discuss relevant cause-effect-chains and are used to adapt an existing Stock-Flow-Model of the Austrian land use and transport demand system. The modified Stock-Flow-Model is used for a quantitative impact assessment. Sensitivity analysis in form of Monte-Carlo-Simulations is employed to tackle the high level of uncertainty concerning key factors. Findings, results: The key factors, influencing mode choice and travel demand, are generalized costs of travel time, weighted costs of use and availability. The automation of driving, expressed as the share of highly and fully automated vehicles in the fleet, is influencing all three key factors via different cause-effect-chains and feedback loops. In SAFiP we identified four key impact sources: automated and remote parking, road capacity and travel speed, value of in-vehicle time and widening the range of users. Sensitivity tests for each of the impact sources have been carried out. Widening the range of users has the highest impact on a national level, potentially increasing car kilometers by about 17 percent in 2050. Remote parking increases car kilometers by about 5 percent in total, ranging from about 1 percent in peripheral districts to about 17 percent in Vienna

Zależność pomiędzy wyborem trybu oraz lokalizacją supermarketów – analiza empiryczna w Austrii

Main goal of the study work is to gain data about shopping and mobility behaviour at small local supermarkets with sales floor space less than 1.000 m2. Four location types have been defined and discussed; rural − peripheral location, rural − central location, urban – central location and urban – peripheral location. 200 shoppers each location were interviewed at the exit of the supermarket, which means a total of 800 interviews were carried out during all day times and working days of the supermarket. As expected, the mode choice is strongly dependent on the location of the supermarket. In car oriented settlements, which can be found at rural peripheral locations, nearly all shoppers accessed the supermarket with their cars. If weighting the expenditure per visit with the frequency of visits, the average expenditure per month and mode can be derived. The average purchase per month between the modes is more or less balanced. A difference in behaviour lies in the fact that cyclists and pedestrians go shopping more frequently but are spending less per visit. Additionally, the results of this study are indicating the existence of a potential mode shift, especially if there is better land use planning for supermarket locations. Furthermore, considering the given situation and a given threshold of less than 5 kilograms of weight of the goods purchased, more than fifty percent of all shoppers could use non motorised modes with insignificant loss of travel quality. Combined with short travel distances to the next shop (the average distance is 4.9 km), a change to alternative means of transport would be relatively easy for a significant number of shoppers.Głównym celem badania w tym artykule jest uzyskanie danych o zakupach oraz zachowaniach mobilnych w małych lokalnych supermarketach o powierzchni sprzedaży mniejszej niż 1000 m2. Zostały zdefiniowane i omówione cztery typy lokalizacji: wiejskie − peryferyjne położenie, wiejskie − w centrum miasta, miejskie − centralne położenie i miejskie − peryferyjne położenie. W ciągu całego dnia przeprowadzono wywiady z 200 kupującymi wychodzącymi z supermarketów w każdej z lokalizacji, co oznacza 800 wywiadów w ciągu całego dnia roboczego supermarketu. Tak jak oczekiwano, tryb wyboru silnie zależy od lokalizacji w supermarkecie. W osiedlach zorientowanych na samochody, które mogą się znajdować w lokalizacjach peryferyjnych wiejskich, prawie wszyscy kupujący odwiedzili sklep, przyjeżdżając samochodami. Przy rozpatrywaniu wydatków na wizytę z częstotliwością wizyt mogą zostać wydzielone średni wydatek na miesiąc oraz tryb. Przeciętna sprzedaż na jeden miesiąc pomiędzy trybami jest mniej lub bardziej zrównoważona. Różnica w zachowaniu polega na tym, że rowerzyści i piesi robią zakupy częściej, ale wydają mniej na wizytę. Dodatkowo wyniki tego badania wskazują na istnienie potencjalnej zmiany trybu, zwłaszcza jeśli użytkowanie gruntów dla lokalizacji supermarketów jest lepiej zaplanowane. Co więcej, przy uwzględnieniu przedstawionej sytuacji oraz przedstawionego progu poniżej 5 kg wagi zakupionych dóbr ponad pięćdziesiąt procent wszystkich kupujących mogło użyć trybów niezmotoryzowanych przy nieznacznej utracie jakości podróży. W połączeniu z krótkimi dystansami podróży do następnego sklepu (średnia odległość − 4,9 km) zmiana alternatywnych środków transportu będzie stosunkowo łatwa dla znacznej liczby kupujących

Aktive Massnahmen als Teil eines Dialogmarketing-konzeptes zur Förderung der Nutzungshäufigkeit öffentlicher Verkehrsmittel im ländlichen Raum

The SmartMove project is working to advance innovative marketing and mobility solutions in eight rural and peripheral European regions and is co-funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme of the European Union. Through tailor-made strategies, it aims to provide information and encourage people to use public transport in their region. Sparsely populated rural areas in Europe are facing tremendous social changes due to shrinking and ageing populations. Because of the scattered settlement structure in these areas, the public transport network density is low and service frequency is often poor. The problems are exacerbated by increasing private car use, which, in a vicious circle, leads to further reductions in services. However, simple tools such as dialogue marketing and minor adjustments to scheduling can help change people’s perceptions. Dialogue marketing techniques have already been shown to increase passenger numbers by as much as 10 to 15 percent. Greater demand leads to higher revenues, making it possible to improve the system and attract even more passengers, turning the vicious circle into a positive loop.Im Projekt SmartMove werden innovative Marketing-Strategien und Mobilitätslösungen für acht verschiedene Europäische Regionen weiterentwickelt. Das Projekt wird vom EU-Förderprogramm "Intelligente Energien - Europa" kofinanziert. Mittels maßgeschneiderten Maßnahmen zielt es darauf ab, Informationen zum öffentlichen Verkehr für die Einwohner der Region bereitzustellen und dadurch diese zu motivieren, die öffentlichen Verkehrsmittel vermehrt zu benützen. Dünn besiedelte, ländliche Regionen – der Schwerpunkt des Projekts – sind einer starken Veränderung unterworfen, verschärft durch die Überalterung und Abwanderung der Bevölkerung. Dies ist ein zusätzliches Problem für den öffentlichen Verkehr, hohe Verkehrsanteile des privaten Pkw sind die Folge. Dies verursacht eine Abwärtsspirale in Richtung weitere Ausdünnung der Infrastrukturen. Kleine Veränderung aber auch Bemühungen die Bevölkerung zu informieren und ein Problembewusstsein zu schaffen ist das primäre Ziel des individualisierten Marketings. In Vorprojekten konnten eine Steigerung der Fahrgäste von 10 bis 15 Prozent erzielt werden. Durch verstärkte Nachfrage steigen die Einnahmen und sie ist auch ein Bekenntnis der Bevölkerung, die Abwärtsspirale ins Gegenteil zu drehen