Interaction between coherent structures and surface temperature and its effect on ground heat flux in an unstably stratified boundary layer

Surface layer plumes, thermals, downdrafts and roll vortices are the most prominent coherent structures in an unstably stratified boundary layer. They contribute most of the temperature and vertical velocity variance, and their time scales increase with height. The effects of these multi-scale structures (surface layer plumes scale with surface layer depth, thermals scale with boundary layer height and the resulting roll vortices scale with convective time scale) on the surface temperature and ground heat flux were studied using turbulence measurements throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and the surface temperature measurements from an infrared camera. Plumes and thermals imprint on the surface temperature as warm structures and downdrafts imprint as cold structures. The air temperature trace shows a ramp-like pattern, with small ramps overlaid on a large ramp very close to the surface; on the other hand, surface temperature gradually increases and decreases. Turbulent heat flux and ground heat flux show similar patterns, with the former lagging the latter. The maximum values of turbulent heat flux and ground heat flux are 4 and 1.2 times the respective mean values during the ejection event. Surface temperature fluctuations follow a similar power-law exponent relationship with stability as suggested by surface layer similarity theory. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world's fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones

Cloud base height estimates from sky imagery and a network of pyranometers

Cloud base height (CBH) is an important parameter for physics-based high resolution solar radiation modeling. In sky imager-based forecasts, a ceilometer or stereographic setup is needed to derive the CBH; otherwise erroneous CBHs lead to incorrect physical cloud velocity and incorrect projection of cloud shadows, causing solar power forecast errors due to incorrect shadow positions and timing of shadowing events. In this paper, two methods to estimate cloud base height from a single sky imager and distributed ground solar irradiance measurements are proposed. The first method (Time Series Correlation, denoted as “TSC”) is based upon the correlation between ground-observed global horizontal irradiance (GHI) time series and a modeled GHI time series generated from a sequence of sky images geo-rectified to a candidate set of CBH. The estimated CBH is taken as the candidate that produces the highest correlation coefficient. The second method (Geometric Cloud Shadow Edge, denoted as “GCSE”) integrates a numerical ramp detection method for ground-observed GHI time series with solar and cloud geometry applied to cloud edges in a sky image. CBH are benchmarked against a collocated ceilometer and stereographically estimated CBH from two sky imagers for 15 min median-filtered CBHs. Over 30 days covering all seasons, the TSC method performs similarly to the GCSE method with nRMSD of 18.9% versus 20.8%. A key limitation of both proposed methods is the requirement of sufficient variation in GHI to enable reliable correlation and ramp detection. The advantage of the two proposed methods is that they can be applied when measurements from only a single sky imager and pyranometers are available

Corrective receding horizon EV charge scheduling using short-term solar forecasting

Forecast errors can cause sub-optimal solutions in resource planning optimization, yet they are usually modeled simplistically by statistical models, causing unrealistic impacts on the optimal solutions. In this paper, realistic forecast errors are prescribed, and a corrective approach is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of day-ahead persistence forecast error by short-term forecasts from a state-of-the-art sky imager system. These forecasts preserve the spatiotemporal dependence structure of forecast errors avoiding statistical approximations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on a receding horizon quadratic program developed for valley filling the midday net load depression through electric vehicle charging. Throughout one month of simulations the ability to flatten net load is assessed under practical forecast accuracy levels achievable from persistence, sky imager and perfect forecasts. Compared to using day-ahead persistence solar forecasts, the proposed corrective approach using sky imager forecasts delivers a 25% reduction in the standard deviation of the daily net load. It is demonstrated that correcting day-ahead forecasts in real time with more accurate short-term forecasts benefits the valley filling solution

Sky camera geometric calibration using solar observations

A camera model and associated automated calibration procedure for stationary daytime sky imaging cameras is presented. The specific modeling and calibration needs are motivated by remotely deployed cameras used to forecast solar power production where cameras point skyward and use 180° fisheye lenses. Sun position in the sky and on the image plane provides a simple and automated approach to calibration; special equipment or calibration patterns are not required. Sun position in the sky is modeled using a solar position algorithm (requiring latitude, longitude, altitude and time as inputs). Sun position on the image plane is detected using a simple image processing algorithm. The performance evaluation focuses on the calibration of a camera employing a fisheye lens with an equisolid angle projection, but the camera model is general enough to treat most fixed focal length, central, dioptric camera systems with a photo objective lens. Calibration errors scale with the noise level of the sun position measurement in the image plane, but the calibration is robust across a large range of noise in the sun position. Calibration performance on clear days ranged from 0.94 to 1.24 pixels root mean square error

Improving estimates for reliability and cost in microgrid investment planning models

This paper develops a new microgrid investment planning model that determines cost-optimal investment and operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a microgrid. We formulate the problem in a bilevel framework, using particle swarm optimization to determine investment and the DER-CAM model (Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model) to determine operation. The model further uses sequential Monte Carlo simulation to explicitly simulate power outages and integrates time-varying customer damage functions to calculate interruption costs from outages. The model treats nonlinearities in reliability evaluation directly, where existing linear models make critical simplifying assumptions. It combines investment, operating, and interruption costs together in a single objective function, thereby treating reliability endogenously and finding the cost-optimal trade-off between cost and reliability - two competing objectives. In benchmarking against a version of the DER-CAM model that treats reliability through a constraint on minimum investment, our new model improves estimates of reliability (the loss of load expectation) by up to 600%, of the total system cost by 6%-18%, of the investment cost by 32%-50%, and of the economic benefit of investing 27%-47%. Improvements stem from large differences in investment of up to 56% for natural gas generators, solar photovoltaics, and battery energy storage