Determinants of inflation and price level differentials across the euro area countries

This paper analyses the determinants of inflation differentials and price levels across the euro area countries. Dynamic panel estimations for the period 1999-2006 show that inflation differentials are primarily determined by cyclical positions and inflation persistence. The persistence in inflation differentials appears to be partly explained by administered prices and to some extent by product market regulations. In a cointegrating framework we find that the price level of each euro area country is governed by the levels of GDP per capita

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular

Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe

This paper provides empirical evidence that supports the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth in European countries. It shows that an initial high government debt level coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor longterm real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. The paper offers some evidence that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in countries in which the exchange rate tool is no longer available and less so in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusions of additional control variables

Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries - developments and challenges

The aim of this report, which has been prepared by a Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Eurosystem, is to describe and analyse the main developments in labour supply and its determinants in the euro area, review the links between labour supply and labour market institutions, assess how well labour supply reflects the demand for labour in the euro area and identify the future challenges for policy-makers. The data available for this report generally cover the period from 1983 to spring 2007. JEL Classification: E5, J1, J2, J6.Labour supply, employment, participation, hours worked, immigration, skill and education, structural policies, labour demand, unemployment, euro area countries, labour markets, taxes and benefits, childcare, pensions, training, human capital, labour quality, working time and contracts, discrimination, mismatch, returns to education.

THE ROLE OF MONEY IN MONETARY POLICY MAKING

Abstract: In this paper, the conceptual and empirical bases for the role of monetary aggregates in monetary policy making are reviewed. It is argued that money can act as a useful information variable in a world in which a number of indicators are imperfectly observed. In this context, the paper discusses the role of a reference value (or benchmark) for money growth in episodes of heightened financial uncertainty. A reference value for money growth can also act as an anchor for expectations and policy decisions to prevent divergent dynamics, such as the spiraling of the economy into a liquidity trap, which can occur under simple interest rate rules for policy conduct. The paper concludes that using information included in monetary aggregates in monetary policy decisions can provide an important safeguard against major policy mistakes in the presence of model uncertainty. JEL classification: E5, E58, E52, E41

Zur Frage der normativen Interpretation von Leistungsbilanzsalden

Questions Relating to the Normative Interpretation of Current Balance Data An intertemporal approach to analyzing current balance data initially shows what combinations of fundamental factors, i.e. intertemporal utility and production functions of individual countries, are at the base of current balance surpluses/deficits. According to this approach, surpluses and deficits reflect intertemporal optimization. Under this aspect, the inevitable conclusion is that redressing current account imbalances invariably leads to prosperity losses. However, any reality-based analysis must take account of adjustment costs and uncertainties as well as of varied distortions on account of taxes, subsidies an regulations; all of them may influence current balances and be at the base of surpluses/ deficits besides fundamental factors. It would, however, be inappropriate to conclude from the existence of such factors that it would be a matter of political prudence to postulate and pursue the attainment of current balance targets. Prosperity gains can in this way not be made especially when the aim is a general lumpsum reduction of surpluses/deficits without any thorough analysis of the determinants of existing current balance surpluses/deficits. Moreover, stability policy requirements suggest entirely different optimal current account results depending on whether production and employment fluctuations are caused by supply or by demand conditions. Finally, the implementation of a policy guided by current balance targets would meet with a substantial amount of difficulty, too; from among the possible effects thereof, mention must be made primarily of increasing protectionism and rises in publicsector debts