Heterogeneity after harmonisation: a retrospective cohort study of bleeding and stroke risk after the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants in four Western European countries

Purpose: Database heterogeneity can impact effect estimates. Harmonisation provided by common protocols and common data models (CDMs) can increase the validity of pharmacoepidemiologic research. In a case study measuring the changes in the safety and effectiveness of stroke prevention therapy after the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), we performed an international comparison. Methods: Using data from Stockholm, Denmark, Scotland and Norway, harmonised with a common protocol and CDM, two calendar-based cohorts were created: 2012 and 2017. Patients with a diagnosis code of atrial fibrillation 5 years preceding the 1-year cohort window were included. DOAC, vitamin K antagonist and aspirin treatment were assessed in the 6 months prior to the start of each year while strokes and bleeds were assessed during the year. A Poisson regression generated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare outcomes from 2017 to 2012 adjusted for changes in individual-level baseline characteristics. Results: In 280 359 patients in the 2012 cohort and 356 779 in the 2017 cohort, treatment with OACs increased on average from 45% to 65%, while treatment with aspirin decreased from 30% to 10%. In all countries except Scotland, there were decreases in the risk of stroke and no changes in bleeding risk, after adjustment for changes in baseline characteristics. In Scotland, major bleeding (IRR 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.00; 1.18]) and intracranial haemorrhage (IRR 1.31, 95% CI [1.13; 1.52]) increased from 2012 to 2017. Conclusions: Stroke prevention therapy improved from 2012 to 2017 with a corresponding reduction in stroke risk without increasing the risk of bleeding in all countries, except Scotland. The heterogeneity that remains after methodological harmonisation can be informative of the underlying population and database

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI 2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/images/research_banner_face_lab_290.jpgunderweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity