Mean-field dynamo due to spatiotemporal fluctuations of the turbulent kinetic energy

In systems where the standard $\alpha$ effect is inoperative, one often explains the existence of mean magnetic fields by invoking the `incoherent $\alpha$ effect', which appeals to fluctuations of the mean kinetic helicity at a mesoscale. Most previous studies, while considering fluctuations in the mean kinetic helicity, treated the mean turbulent kinetic energy at the mesoscale as a constant, despite the fact that both these quantities involve second-order velocity correlations. The mean turbulent kinetic energy affects the mean magnetic field through both turbulent diffusion and turbulent diamagnetism. In this work, we use a double-averaging procedure to analytically show that fluctuations of the mean turbulent kinetic energy at the mesoscale (giving rise to $\eta$-fluctuations at the mesoscale, where the scalar $\eta$ is the turbulent diffusivity) can lead to the growth of a large-scale magnetic field even when the kinetic helicity is zero pointwise. Constraints on the operation of such a dynamo are expressed in terms of dynamo numbers that depend on the correlation length, correlation time, and strength of these fluctuations. In the white-noise limit, we find that these fluctuations reduce the overall turbulent diffusion, while also contributing a drift term which does not affect the growth of the field. We also study the effects of nonzero correlation time and anisotropy. Turbulent diamagnetism, which arises due to inhomogeneities in the turbulent kinetic energy, leads to growing mean field solutions even when the $\eta$-fluctuations are statistically isotropic.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. Version accepted for publication in JFM. Major changes from previous version: added appendix B, discussing the case where turbulent diamagnetism is absent. Also added some discussion of related wor

Seismic Response Control Systems for Structures

Structures constructed in developing world are typically RC frames with masonry infill. These structures have little resistance for lateral loads caused by earthquake and wind. Even for  adequately designed structures also, due to permissible deformation beyond elastic limits, failure of masonry causes severe loss of life and property. In the case of structures designed to sustain excessive deformation such as of defence establishments, functioning and serviceability of machines and equipment installed therein are adversely affected. This co-lateral damage may be reduced by adopting another design philosophy of structure response control. In this methodology, a supplementary damping device is incorporated in the primary structure, which absorbs most of the seismic energy imparted to it, restricting the structural response within serviceable limits. These devices may be passive, active, semi-active or hybrid types. Other than passive all options are technology-intensive and dependent on external energy source, not a favourable proposition for developing nations. Among all the passive devices, tuned liquid dampers (TLDs) promise to be most suitable. Here, existing overhead water tanks (OHWT) may be used as TLD with slight adjustment and modification. This method will be able to control the structural response without putting any extra load on the existing or newly-designed buildings. This paper reviews various types of dampers and discusses evolution of tuned liquid dampers. A method has also been proposed for incorporating TLDs in existing and new structures. This methodology may be very useful for structures of defence establishment which are scattered and remotely placed by location, housing important equipments sensitive to vibrations, as it is free from external power dependence and regular maintenance.Defence Science Journal, 2009, 59(3), pp.239-251, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.59.151

Cell-phone traces reveal infection-associated behavioral change

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked DownloadEpidemic preparedness depends on our ability to predict the trajectory of an epidemic and the human behavior that drives spread in the event of an outbreak. Changes to behavior during an outbreak limit the reliability of syndromic surveillance using large-scale data sources, such as online social media or search behavior, which could otherwise supplement healthcare-based outbreak-prediction methods. Here, we measure behavior change reflected in mobile-phone call-detail records (CDRs), a source of passively collected real-time behavioral information, using an anonymously linked dataset of cell-phone users and their date of influenza-like illness diagnosis during the 2009 H1N1v pandemic. We demonstrate that mobile-phone use during illness differs measurably from routine behavior: Diagnosed individuals exhibit less movement than normal (1.1 to 1.4 fewer unique tower locations; [Formula: see text]), on average, in the 2 to 4 d around diagnosis and place fewer calls (2.3 to 3.3 fewer calls; [Formula: see text]) while spending longer on the phone (41- to 66-s average increase; [Formula: see text]) than usual on the day following diagnosis. The results suggest that anonymously linked CDRs and health data may be sufficiently granular to augment epidemic surveillance efforts and that infectious disease-modeling efforts lacking explicit behavior-change mechanisms need to be revisited. Keywords: call detail records; disease; influenza; outbreak; surveillance.Alan Turing Institute Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EP/N510129/1 UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) European Commission National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Brist

Flying, phones and flu: Anonymized call records suggest that Keflavik International Airport introduced pandemic H1N1 into Iceland in 2009

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Background Data collected by mobile devices can augment surveillance of epidemics in real time. However, methods and evidence for the integration of these data into modern surveillance systems are sparse. We linked call detail records (CDR) with an influenza-like illness (ILI) registry and evaluated the role that Icelandic international travellers played in the introduction and propagation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 virus in Iceland through the course of the 2009 pandemic. Methods This nested case-control study compared odds of exposure to Keflavik International Airport among cases and matched controls producing longitudinal two-week matched odds ratios (mORs) from August to December 2009. We further evaluated rates of ILI among 1st- and 2nd-degree phone connections of cases compared to their matched controls. Results The mOR was elevated in the initial stages of the epidemic from 7 August until 21 August (mOR = 2.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.35, 4.78). During the two-week period from 17 August through 31 August, we calculated the two-week incidence density ratio of ILI among 1st-degree connections to be 2.96 (95% CI: 1.43, 5.84). Conclusions Exposure to Keflavik International Airport increased the risk of incident ILI diagnoses during the initial stages of the epidemic. Using these methods for other regions of Iceland, we evaluated the geographic spread of ILI over the course of the epidemic. Our methods were validated through similar evaluation of a domestic airport. The techniques described in this study can be used for hypothesis-driven evaluations of locations and behaviours during an epidemic and their associations with health outcomes.Icelandic Centre for Research Award #152620-051, an Emory University Research Council Award, NSF CAREER Award #1553579, a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship and a hardware donation from NVIDIA Corporation."Peer Reviewed

Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City.

SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = -0.88 [-0.52, -0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks

Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

BACKGROUND Quantifying the effect of natural disasters on society is critical for recovery of public health services and infrastructure. The death toll can be difficult to assess in the aftermath of a major disaster. In September 2017, Hurricane Maria caused massive infrastructural damage to Puerto Rico, but its effect on mortality remains contentious. The official death count is 64. METHODS Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016. RESULTS From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care. Hurricane-related migration was substantial. CONCLUSIONS This household-based survey suggests that the number of excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is more than 70 times the official estimate. (Funded by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and others.

Spatial Clustering and Risk Factors for Malaria Infections and Marker of Recent Exposure to Plasmodium falciparum from a Household Survey in Artibonite, Haiti.

Targeting malaria interventions in elimination settings where transmission is heterogeneous is essential to ensure the efficient use of resources. Identifying the most important risk factors among persons experiencing a range of exposure can facilitate such targeting. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Artibonite, Haiti, to identify and characterize spatial clustering of malaria infections. Household members (N = 21,813) from 6,962 households were surveyed and tested for malaria. An infection was defined as testing positive for Plasmodium falciparum by either a conventional or novel highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test. Seropositivity to the early transcribed membrane protein 5 antigen 1 represented recent exposure to P. falciparum. Clusters were identified using SaTScan. Associations among individual, household, and environmental risk factors for malaria, recent exposure, and living in spatial clusters of these outcomes were evaluated. Malaria infection was detected in 161 individuals (median age: 15 years). Weighted malaria prevalence was low (0.56%; 95% CI: 0.45-0.70%). Serological evidence of recent exposure was detected in 1,134 individuals. Bed net use, household wealth, and elevation were protective, whereas being febrile, over age 5 years, and living in either households with rudimentary wall material or farther from the road increased the odds of malaria. Two predominant overlapping spatial clusters of infection and recent exposure were identified. Individual, household, and environmental risk factors are associated with the odds of individual risk and recent exposure in Artibonite; spatial clusters are primarily associated with household-level risk factors. Findings from serology testing can further strengthen the targeting of interventions

Shell model for stratified convection: implications for the solar convective conundrum

We extend the notion of a shell model to stratified systems, and propose one that represents stratified, nonmagnetic, nonrotating convection at low Mach number. Motivated by profiles of background stratification that support convection in stars such as the Sun, we study numerical solutions corresponding to a highly unstable layer above a mildly unstable layer. We find that at low Prandtl number, convective amplitudes decrease with depth in the lower layer. This suggests that the suppression of convection in the deeper layers of the Sun's convection zone (the convective conundrum) can be addressed without necessarily appealing to rotation or magnetic fields.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure