Foreign investment in Scotland

A significant feature of the UK economy throughout the post-war period has been the growth in direct foreign investment in manufacturing industries. For the host nation the main benefits are employment creation, income generation and import reduction or export expansion. Scotland has been particularly successful in attracting the lion's inward investment for example in the period 1945- 1965 a total of 108,500 jobs were created by foreign firms setting up manufacturing units in the despite its size, obtained 46,221 (42.6%), whereas the second most SE England, gained only 16,926 (15.6%). The reasons for this success have been attributed primarily to a combination of the availability of labour in Scotland, the financial inducements offered by central government as part of regional policy and, the undoubted attraction of the environment, notably of course golf courses, for foreign businessmen. This brief paper explores the nature of Scotland's direct foreign investment and the reasons for its success

Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1977]

There is now ample evidence that the pace of recovery in the major economies slackened during 1976. Published statistics, however, are as yet inadequate to document the full extent of the slowdown or to assert that it was a transient phenomenon. Available evidence would suggest that the growth in the major economies in 1977 may be somewhat slower than had earlier been forecast, and that in the short run further reductions in unemployment and inflation rates may be very difficult to achieve. Several threads may be drawn together in an attempt to justify this interpretation of likely future developments

Tourism in Scotland

In 1978 13.2 million tourist and business travellers spent £523 million in Scotland, Foreign visitors, although only 8.5% of the total, contributed £158 million (ie 30.2%) of tourist expenditure. As such tourism is both an "invisible" export, since it is a means of earning foreign exchange, and a significant provider of jobs, many of which are created in the remoter rural areas. Despite its importance statistics relating specifically to tourism are not readily available from published sources. The "industry" actually combines the resources of a wide range of activities, most of which have economic and social links with other sectors of the economy independent from tourism. These include hotels and catering, transport and travel services as well as entertainment, sport and recreation facilities. Consequently the economic impact of tourism is generally assessed not in terms of employment and output but by more indirect measures such as numbers of visitors, or bednights spent in Scotland, as well as tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy data. This brief will examine the wider economic impact of Scotland's tourism industry and its future

Econometric forecasts for Scotland

In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

The Scottish economy [October 1979]

The previous two issues of this Commentary have both indicated that the Scottish economy has been performing poorly since the mid 1970's. This is true in both an absolute and a relative sense. Manufacturing production only increased by 1.2% between 1976 and 1978 and, after dropping below 1975 levels in the first quarter of 1979, is unlikely to show any substantial improvement for the year as a whole. In an international context the 1975-1978 performance can best be described as appalling. Over the same period industrial production in Eire grew by 28%, in Japan and the US by 23% and in West Germany and France by 15%. Inertia in developing new markets and lack of competitiveness in existing markets both contributed substantially to the virtual stagnation of Scottish output. Because the problems are so diverse, so too must be the solutions

The tax and price index

A feature of this year's Budget was the shift in emphasis from direct taxation to indirect taxation. The annual yield of income tax has been reduced by £4½ billion while that of direct taxes was increased by a similar amount. It must be acknowledged that the new tax and price index has a number of deficiencies. It is only applicable to a proportion of the population, namely those who pay tax and whose gross income is less than £10,000 per annum. It takes no account of the social wage, nor of changes in benefits, such as the recent restructuring of child allowance. It smoothes out tax payments over a full year even though, for administrative reasons, these may fluctuate widely from month to month. This brief paper explores some of these deficiencies in more detail and assess their impact on taxation

Summary [January 1977]

The pace of recovery in the major economies of the world slackened in the course of 1976. The available evidence suggests that their growth in 1977 may be slower than had earlier been hoped for, and that further reductions in unemployment and in rates of inflation may be difficult to achieve in the short run

Common Variants at 9p21 and 8q22 Are Associated with Increased Susceptibility to Optic Nerve Degeneration in Glaucoma

Optic nerve degeneration caused by glaucoma is a leading cause of blindness worldwide. Patients affected by the normal-pressure form of glaucoma are more likely to harbor risk alleles for glaucoma-related optic nerve disease. We have performed a meta-analysis of two independent genome-wide association studies for primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) followed by a normal-pressure glaucoma (NPG, defined by intraocular pressure (IOP) less than 22 mmHg) subgroup analysis. The single-nucleotide polymorphisms that showed the most significant associations were tested for association with a second form of glaucoma, exfoliation-syndrome glaucoma. The overall meta-analysis of the GLAUGEN and NEIGHBOR dataset results (3,146 cases and 3,487 controls) identified significant associations between two loci and POAG: the CDKN2BAS region on 9p21 (rs2157719 [G], OR = 0.69 [95%CI 0.63–0.75], p = 1.86×10−18), and the SIX1/SIX6 region on chromosome 14q23 (rs10483727 [A], OR = 1.32 [95%CI 1.21–1.43], p = 3.87×10−11). In sub-group analysis two loci were significantly associated with NPG: 9p21 containing the CDKN2BAS gene (rs2157719 [G], OR = 0.58 [95% CI 0.50–0.67], p = 1.17×10−12) and a probable regulatory region on 8q22 (rs284489 [G], OR = 0.62 [95% CI 0.53–0.72], p = 8.88×10−10). Both NPG loci were also nominally associated with a second type of glaucoma, exfoliation syndrome glaucoma (rs2157719 [G], OR = 0.59 [95% CI 0.41–0.87], p = 0.004 and rs284489 [G], OR = 0.76 [95% CI 0.54–1.06], p = 0.021), suggesting that these loci might contribute more generally to optic nerve degeneration in glaucoma. Because both loci influence transforming growth factor beta (TGF-beta) signaling, we performed a genomic pathway analysis that showed an association between the TGF-beta pathway and NPG (permuted p = 0.009). These results suggest that neuro-protective therapies targeting TGF-beta signaling could be effective for multiple forms of glaucoma

Population, employment and labour force projections

In a previous issue of this Commentary (July 1977, Vol.3. No.1) some projections of Scottish population and labour force were made. Required rates of new job creation were evaluated, given a target of 5% unemployment by 1981. This present article updates the earlier study, extending it in two main directions. Firstly, the migration forecasts, rather than spanning a range of possible outcomes, are derived directly from an econometric forecast of the Scottish economy over the next few years. Secondly, the projection period over which the forecasts are made is extended considerably; to 1993 as far as population and labour supply are concerned. The paper is divided into two sections, the first dealing with the methodology underlying the projections, while the second discusses results and implications