Experimental methodologies to support aircraft icing analysis

The experimental methodologies are illustrated by graphs, charts and line drawings. Typical ultrasonic echo signals for dry and wet ice growth, ice accretion rates for various tunnel configurations, the experimental configuration for flight tests of the ultrasonic measuring system and heat balance models used to predict ice growth are among the topics that are illustrated and briefly discussed

Experimental measurements of heat transfer from an iced surface during artificial and natural cloud icing conditions

The heat transfer behavior of accreting ice surfaces in natural (flight test) and simulated (wind tunnel) cloud icing conditions were studied. Observations of wet and dry ice growth regimes as measured by ultrasonic pulse echo techniques were made. Observed wet and dry ice growth regimes at the stagnation point of a cylinder were compared with those predicted using a quasi steady state heat balance model. A series of heat transfer coefficients were employed by the model to infer the local heat transfer behavior of the actual ice surfaces. The heat transfer in the stagnation region was generally inferred to be higher in wind tunnel icing tests than in natural flight icing conditions

Ultrasonic techniques for aircraft ice accretion measurement

Results of tests to measure ice growth in natural (flight) and artificial (icing wind tunnel) icing conditions are presented. Ice thickness is measured using an ultrasonic pulse-echo technique. Two icing regimes, wet and dry ice growth, are identified and the unique ultrasonic signal characteristics associated with these different types of ice growth are described. Ultrasonic measurements of ice growth on cylinders and airfoils exposed to artificial and natural icing conditions are presented. An accuracy of plus or minus 0.5 mm is achieved for ice thickness measurement using the pulse-echo technique. The performance of two-probe type ice detectors is compared to the surface mounted ultrasonic system. The ultrasonically measured ice accretion rates and ice surface condition (wet or dry) are used to compare the heat transfer characteristics for flight and icing wind tunnel environments. In general the heat transfer coefficient is inferred to be higher in the wind tunnel environment, not likely due to higher freestream turbulence levels. Finally, preliminary results of tests to measure ice growth on airfoil using an array of ultrasonic transducers are described. Ice profiles obtained during flight in natural icing conditions are shown and compared with mechanical and stereo image measurements

Outcome prediction in mathematical models of immune response to infection

Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of `virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability $v$ in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from Gaussian distributions with variance $v$ that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near $100\%$ accuracy for $v=0$, and the accuracy decreases with increasing $v$ for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for $v>0$. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

In-flight measurement of ice growth on an airfoil using an array of ultrasonic transducers

Results of preliminary tests to measure ice growth on an airfoil during flight icing conditions are presented. Ultrasonic pulse echo measurements of ice thickness are obtained from an array of eight ultrasonic transducers mounted flush with the leading edge of the airfoil. These thickness measurements are used to document the evolution of the ice shape during the encounter in the form of successive ice profiles. Results from 3 research flights are presented and discussed. The accuracy of the ultrasonic measurements is found to be within 0.5 mm of mechanical and stereo photograph measurements of the ice accretion

Measurement of ice accretion using ultrasonic pulse echo techniques

Many figures are given to illustrate the measurement of ice deposition using ultrasonic pulse echo techniques. The basic concept is to measure the thickness of the ice by relating the pulse echo time to the speed of sound. The measurements are made in an icing research tunnel (IRT), where echo patterns are videotaped during icing exposures under a variety of conditions. Typical echo patterns for different types of ice are illustrated. A table summarizing the icing rates measured in the IRT, along with the presence or absence of surface water is also given

Relationship between Sex Steroid and Vitellogenin Concentrations in Flounder (Platichthys flesus) Sampled from an Estuary Contaminated with Estrogenic Endocrine-Disrupting Compounds

High concentrations of vitellogenin (VTG; egg yolk protein) have previously been found in male flounder (Platichthys flesus) from several UK estuaries; these levels have been ascribed to the presence of estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs). Gonadal abnormalities, including intersex, have also been recorded in these estuaries. However, there is no firm evidence to date that these two findings are causally linked or that the presence of estrogenic EDCs has any adverse population effects. In the present study, we examined the relationship between concentrations of VTG and sex steroids (11-oxotestosterone in males and 17β-estradiol in females) in specimens of flounder captured from the estuary of the River Mersey. We first questioned whether the high concentrations of VTG in male and immature female flounder were indeed caused by a direct effect of exogenous EDCs and not indirectly via the endogenous secretion of 17β-estradiol. The data favored the direct involvement of estrogenic EDCs. We then questioned whether the presence of estrogenic EDCs not only stimulated inappropriate VTG synthesis but whether it might also have had a negative effect on endogenous steroid secretion. It should be noted that the predicted consequences of a drop in steroid secretion include smaller gonads, smaller oocytes, fewer numbers of sperm, and depressed spawning behavior. This question was more difficult to answer because of the strong effect of the seasonal reproductive cycle and stage of maturation on steroid concentrations. However, matched by month of capture and stage of maturation, both 17β-estradiol in females and 11-keto-testosterone in males were in most cases significantly lower in those years when VTG concentrations were higher

Stellar Kinematics in the Complicated Inner Spheroid of M31: Discovery of Substructure Along the Southeastern Minor Axis and its Relationship to the Giant Southern Stream

We present the discovery of a kinematically-cold stellar population along the SE minor axis of the Andromeda galaxy (M31) that is likely the forward continuation of M31's giant southern stream. This discovery was made in the course of an on-going spectroscopic survey of red giant branch (RGB) stars in M31 using the DEIMOS instrument on the Keck II 10-m telescope. Stellar kinematics are investigated in eight fields located 9-30 kpc from M31's center (in projection). A likelihood method based on photometric and spectroscopic diagnostics is used to isolate confirmed M31 RGB stars from foreground Milky Way dwarf stars: for the first time, this is done without using radial velocity as a selection criterion, allowing an unbiased study of M31's stellar kinematics. The radial velocity distribution of the 1013 M31 RGB stars shows evidence for the presence of two components. The broad (hot) component has a velocity dispersion of 129 km/s and presumably represents M31's virialized spheroid. A significant fraction (19%) of the population is in a narrow (cold) component centered near M31's systemic velocity with a velocity dispersion that decreases with increasing radial distance, from 55.5 km/s at R_proj=12 kpc to 10.6 km/s at R_proj=18 kpc. The spatial and velocity distribution of the cold component matches that of the "Southeast shelf" predicted by the Fardal et al. (2007) orbital model of the progenitor of the giant southern stream. The metallicity distribution of the cold component matches that of the giant southern stream, but is about 0.2 dex more metal rich on average than that of the hot spheroidal component. We discuss the implications of our discovery on the interpretation of the intermediate-age spheroid population found in this region in recent ultra-deep HST imaging studies.Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Changes from previous version: expanded discussion in sections 4.2 and 7.2, removal of section 7.1.4 and associated figure (discussion moved to section 7.1.2