Why Nations Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving

Many countries experienced a rema rkable increase in life expectancy during the 20th century, but the development implications have received only modest attention. We analyze steady state and out-of-steady-state effects of the transition in adult longevity on the national saving rate using an overlapping generations model. We show that the national saving rate depends on both the level and rate of change in adult survival. Countries with rapid transitions have particularly elevated saving rates. Empirical evidence is drawn from two sources: long-term historical trends for a small number of countries and world panel data for 1960-95. Two important conclusions are supported by the empirical analysis. First, the demographic transition had a large positive effect on aggregate saving, but over three-quarters of the gain was due to improvements in old-age survival rather than declines in youth dependency. Second, population aging will not lead to a decline in aggregate saving rates. The compositional effect – lower saving rates among the elderly – is dominated by the behavioral effect – individuals will save more to provide for a longer old age.

Depopulation and importance of agriculture in Japan: Implications from the overlapping generations and general equilibrium growth accounting model

We investigate the effects of demographic change on agriculture and nonagriculture in Japan while considering capital accumulation and total population and labour. Combining the overlapping generations model with the three generations and general equilibrium growth accounting models, we simulate the effect of demographic change on agricultural and nonagricultural inputs and outputs. Our simulation analyses show that demographic change greatly influenced agriculture and nonagriculture through capital accumulation although the influences of total population and labour were not negligible. Remarkable demographic dividends like the decline of young dependents and increase of adult longevity greatly influenced capital accumulation in Japan in the 1950s to the 1990s, which decreased the importance of agriculture. In the future, aggregate capital in Japan will presumably decrease due to a decline of the working age population, which may result in the disappearance of the advantages of nonagriculture and an increase of the importance of agriculture

East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends

The important of the demographic dividend to East Asian economic growth is now widely recognized. During the last four decades of the 20th Century the working age populations grew much more rapidly than the dependent populations fueling growth in per capita income. Over the coming decades, however, demographic change is seemingly unfavorable. In the coming decades the working-age populations of many countries will grow more slowly than dependent populations because of rapid growth of the elderly. Thus, the demographic dividend will be undone. The thesis advanced in this presentation, however, is that appropriate economic policy could produce a second demographic dividend - one that is as great or greater than the first dividend and one that may last indefinitely. Contrary to popular wisdom, population aging may prove to be the source of stronger economic growth and greater prosperity in East Asia.

Effects of the National Strategic Special Zone in Yabu City on Economy and Agriculture : Econometric Considerations

departmental bulletin pape

Life expectancy, labor force, and saving

Mode of access: World Wide Web.Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 186-194).Electronic reproduction.Also available by subscription via World Wide Webxi, 194 leaves, bound ill., 29 c

East Asian economic development : two demographic dividends

For more about the East-West Center, see http://www.eastwestcenter.org/The importance of the demographic dividend to East Asian economic growth is now widely recognized. During the last four decades of the 20th Century the working age populations grew much more rapidly than the dependent populations fueling growth in per capita income. Over the coming decades, however, demographic change is seemingly unfavorable. In the coming decades the working-age populations of many countries will grow more slowly than dependent populations because of rapid growth of the elderly. Thus, the demographic dividend will be undone. The thesis advanced in this presentation, however, is that appropriate economic policy could produce a second demographic dividend one that is as great or greater than the first dividend and one that may last indefinitely. Contrary to popular wisdom, population aging may prove to be the source of stronger economic growth and greater prosperity in East Asia