Using Machine Learning to Predict Swine Movements within a Regional Program to Improve Control of Infectious Diseases in the US.

Between-farm animal movement is one of the most important factors influencing the spread of infectious diseases in food animals, including in the US swine industry. Understanding the structural network of contacts in a food animal industry is prerequisite to planning for efficient production strategies and for effective disease control measures. Unfortunately, data regarding between-farm animal movements in the US are not systematically collected and thus, such information is often unavailable. In this paper, we develop a procedure to replicate the structure of a network, making use of partial data available, and subsequently use the model developed to predict animal movements among sites in 34 Minnesota counties. First, we summarized two networks of swine producing facilities in Minnesota, then we used a machine learning technique referred to as random forest, an ensemble of independent classification trees, to estimate the probability of pig movements between farms and/or markets sites located in two counties in Minnesota. The model was calibrated and tested by comparing predicted data and observed data in those two counties for which data were available. Finally, the model was used to predict animal movements in sites located across 34 Minnesota counties. Variables that were important in predicting pig movements included between-site distance, ownership, and production type of the sending and receiving farms and/or markets. Using a weighted-kernel approach to describe spatial variation in the centrality measures of the predicted network, we showed that the south-central region of the study area exhibited high aggregation of predicted pig movements. Our results show an overlap with the distribution of outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, which is believed to be transmitted, at least in part, though animal movements. While the correspondence of movements and disease is not a causal test, it suggests that the predicted network may approximate actual movements. Accordingly, the predictions provided here might help to design and implement control strategies in the region. Additionally, the methodology here may be used to estimate contact networks for other livestock systems when only incomplete information regarding animal movements is available

Trojan hosts: the menace of invasive vertebrates as vectors of pathogens in the Southern Cone of South America

Invasive alien species (IAS) can act as vectors for the introduction of pathogens in ecosystems and their transmission to threatened native species (TNS), leading to biodiversity loss, population reductions and extinctions. We assessed pathogens potentially occurring in a set of IAS in the Southern Cone of South America and identified TNS potentially vulnerable to their effects. Also, we assessed how risk analysis systems proposed or adopted by national authorities in the study region value the importance of pathogens. We identified 324 pathogens in the selected IAS, which could potentially affect 202 TNS. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) was the IAS with the largest number of pathogens (91), followed by domestic dog (Canis familiaris) (62), red deer (Cervus elaphus) (58), rock dove (Columba livia) (37), American vison (Neovison vison) (18), European hare (Lepus europaeus) (17), common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) (12), common slider (Trachemys scripta) (6), and American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) (2). Most TNS were in the “vulnerable” IUCN category, followed by “endangered” and “critically endangered” species. Bacteria were the most frequently represented pathogens (112), followed by ectoparasites (78), viruses (69), protozoa and other (65). The direct effects of IAS on native wildlife are beginning to be addressed in South America, and their potential impact as pathogen spreaders to native wildlife has remained largely unexplored. Risk analysis systems associated with the introduction of IAS are scarce in this region. Although the existing systems contemplate hazard analyses for the co-introduction of pathogens, they underestimate the potential impact of diseases on TNS. Conservation efforts in the region would benefit from systems which give pathogen risk a relevant place, and from government agencies promoting targeted disease surveillance in IAS and wildlife.Fil: la Sala, Luciano Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Ciencias Biológicas y Biomédicas del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Biología, Bioquímica y Farmacia. Instituto de Ciencias Biológicas y Biomédicas del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Burgos, Julian M.. Marine And Freshwater Research Institute; IslandiaFil: Scorolli, Alberto Luis. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Biología, Bioquímica y Farmacia. Grupo de Estudios en Conservación y Manejo; ArgentinaFil: VanderWaal, Kimberly. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: Zalba, Sergio Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Biología, Bioquímica y Farmacia. Grupo de Estudios en Conservación y Manejo; Argentin

Temporal dynamics of co-circulating lineages of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) is the most important endemic pathogen in the U.S. swine industry. Despite control efforts involving improved biosecurity and different vaccination protocols, the virus continues to circulate and evolve. One of the foremost challenges in its control is high levels of genetic and antigenic diversity. Here, we quantify the co-circulation, emergence and sequential turnover of multiple PRRSV lineages in a single swine-producing region in the United States over a span of 9 years (2009–2017). By classifying over 4,000 PRRSV sequences (open-reading frame 5) into phylogenetic lineages and sub-lineages, we document the ongoing diversification and temporal dynamics of the PRRSV population, including the rapid emergence of a novel sub-lineage that appeared to be absent globally pre-2008. In addition, lineage 9 was the most prevalent lineage from 2009 to 2010, but its occurrence fell to 0.5% of all sequences identified per year after 2014, coinciding with the emergence or re-emergence of lineage 1 as the dominant lineage. The sequential dominance of different lineages, as well as three different sub-lineages within lineage 1, is consistent with the immune-mediated selection hypothesis for the sequential turnover in the dominant lineage. As host populations build immunity through natural infection or vaccination toward the most common variant, this dominant (sub-) lineage may be replaced by an emerging variant to which the population is more susceptible. An analysis of patterns of non- synonymous and synonymous mutations revealed evidence of positive selection on immunologically important regions of the genome, further supporting the potential that immune-mediated selection shapes the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics for this virus. This has important implications for patterns of emergence and re-emergence of genetic variants of PRRSV that have negative impacts on the swine industry. Constant surveillance on PRRSV occurrence is crucial to a better understanding of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of co-circulating viral lineages. Further studies utilizing whole genome sequencing and exploring the extent of cross-immunity between heterologous PRRS viruses could shed further light on PRRSV immunological response and aid in developing strategies that might be able to diminish disease impact

Individual or Common Good? Voluntary Data Sharing to Inform Disease Surveillance Systems in Food Animals

Livestock producers have traditionally been reluctant to share information related to their business, including data on health status of their animals, which, sometimes, has impaired the ability to implement surveillance programs. However, during the last decade, swine producers in the United States (US) and other countries have voluntarily begun to share data for the control and elimination of specific infectious diseases, such as the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv). Those surveillance programs have played a pivotal role in bringing producers and veterinarians together for the benefit of the industry. Examples of situations in which producers have decided to voluntarily share data for extended periods of time to support applied research and, ultimately, disease control in the absence of a regulatory framework have rarely been documented in the peer-reviewed literature. Here, we provide evidence of a national program for voluntary sharing of disease status data that has helped the implementation of surveillance activities that, ultimately, allowed the generation of critically important scientific information to better support disease control activities. Altogether, this effort has supported, and is supporting, the design and implementation of prevention and control approaches for the most economically devastating swine disease affecting the US. The program, which has been voluntarily sustained and supported over an extended period of time by the swine industry in the absence of any regulatory framework and that includes data on approximately 50% of the sow population in the US, represents a unique example of a livestock industry self-organized surveillance program to generate scientific-driven solutions for emerging swine health issues in North America

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRSV2) Viral Diversity within a Farrow-to-Wean Farm Cohort Study

Describing PRRSV whole-genome viral diversity data over time within the host and within-farm is crucial for a better understanding of viral evolution and its implications. A cohort study was conducted at one naïve farrow-to-wean farm reporting a PRRSV outbreak. All piglets 3-5 days of age (DOA) born to mass-exposed sows through live virus inoculation with the recently introduced wild-type virus two weeks prior were sampled and followed up at 17-19 DOA. Samples from 127 piglets were individually tested for PRRSV by RT-PCR and 100 sequences were generated using Oxford Nanopore Technologies chemistry. Female piglets had significantly higher median Ct values than males (15.5 vs. 13.7, Kruskal-Wallis p < 0.001) at 3-5 DOA. A 52.8% mortality between sampling points was found, and the odds of dying by 17-19 DOA decreased with every one unit increase in Ct values at 3-5 DOA (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94, p = 0.01). Although the within-pig percent nucleotide identity was overall high (99.7%) between 3-5 DOA and 17-19 DOA samples, ORFs 4 and 5a showed much lower identities (97.26% and 98.53%, respectively). When looking solely at ORF5, 62% of the sequences were identical to the 3-5 DOA consensus. Ten and eight regions showed increased nucleotide and amino acid genetic diversity, respectively, all found throughout ORFs 2a/2b, 4, 5a/5, 6, and 7