3 research outputs found
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Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations
Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make âFearless Forecastsâ of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5â6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km sâ1, with an average arrival speed of 425km sâ1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km sâ1
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On the prediction of the arrival speed and transit time of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in near-Earth space
This thesis will provide an overview of the knowledge of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), and of the methods used to predict the arrival of Earth-directed
ICMEs in near-Earth space. The ability to accurately predict both their transit time and arrival speed is important, as ICMEs are a space weather hazard, and may have detrimental effects on human technology. I present three pieces of research: an analysis of real-time predictions of ICME arrival speed and transit time made from Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) real-time data by SolarStormwatchâs citizen scientists; an analysis of hindcasts of ICME arrival speed and transit time made using STEREOâs higher resolution science data, covering the same time period as the first
research piece; and a study of the drag force model, and its use as a quick method for predicting ICME arrival speed and transit time. This work could provide useful information on the best image resolution for accurate ICME predictions for future missions to study ICME propagation