BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models

Management and policy decisions are continually made to mitigate disease introductions in animal populations despite often limited surveillance data or knowledge of disease transmission processes. Science-based management is broadly recognized as leading to more effective decisions yet application of models to actively guide disease surveillance and mitigate risks remains limited. Disease-dynamic models are an efficient method of providing information for management decisions because of their ability to integrate and evaluate multiple, complex processes simultaneously while accounting for uncertainty common in animal diseases. Here we review disease introduction pathways and transmission processes crucial for informing disease management and models at the interface of domestic animals and wildlife. We describe how disease transmission models can improve disease management and present a conceptual framework for integrating disease models into the decision process using adaptive management principles. We apply our framework to a case study of African swine fever virus in wild and domestic swine to demonstrate how disease-dynamic models can improve mitigation of introduction risk. We also identify opportunities to improve the application of disease models to support decision-making to manage disease at the interface of domestic and wild animals. First, scientists must focus on objective-driven models providing practical predictions that are useful to those managing disease. In order for practical model predictions to be incorporated into disease management a recognition that modeling is a means to improve management and outcomes is important. This will be most successful when done in a cross-disciplinary environment that includes scientists and decisionmakers representing wildlife and domestic animal health. Lastly, including economic principles of value-of-information and cost-benefit analysis in disease-dynamic models can facilitate more efficient management decisions and improve communication of model forecasts. Integration of disease-dynamic models into management and decision-making processes is expected to improve surveillance systems, risk mitigations, outbreak preparedness, and outbreak response activities

Comparison of family centered care with family integrated care and mobile technology (mFICare) on preterm infant and family outcomes: a multi-site quasi-experimental clinical trial protocol.

BackgroundFamily Centered Care (FCC) has been widely adopted as the framework for caring for infants in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) but it is not uniformly defined or practiced, making it difficult to determine impact. Previous studies have shown that implementing the Family Integrated Care (FICare) intervention program for preterm infants in the NICU setting leads to significant improvements in infant and family outcomes. Further research is warranted to determine feasibility, acceptability and differential impact of FICare in the US context. The addition of a mobile application (app) may be effective in providing supplemental support for parent participation in the FICare program and provide detailed data on program component uptake and outcomes.MethodsThis exploratory multi-site quasi-experimental study will compare usual FCC with mobile enhanced FICare (mFICare) on growth and clinical outcomes of preterm infants born at or before 33 weeks gestational age, as well as the stress, competence and self-efficacy of their parents. The feasibility and acceptability of using mobile technology to gather data about parent involvement in the care of preterm infants receiving FCC or mFICare as well as of the mFICare intervention will be evaluated (Aim 1). The effect sizes for infant growth (primary outcome) and for secondary infant and parent outcomes at NICU discharge and three months after discharge will be estimated (Aim 2).DiscussionThis study will provide new data about the implementation of FICare in the US context within various hospital settings and identify important barriers, facilitators and key processes that may contribute to the effectiveness of FICare. It will also offer insights to clinicians on the feasibility of a new mobile application to support parent-focused research and promote integration of parents into the NICU care team in US hospital settings.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT03418870. Retrospectively registered on December 18, 2017

Generalized overlap quantum state tomography

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a quantum state tomography protocol that generalizes the Wallentowitz-Vogel-Banaszek-W\'odkiewicz point-by-point Wigner function reconstruction. The full density operator of an arbitrary quantum state is efficiently reconstructed in the Fock basis, using semidefinite programming, after interference with a small set of calibrated coherent states. This new protocol is resource- and computationally efficient, is robust against noise, does not rely on approximate state displacements, and ensures the physicality of results.Comment: 19 pages, 10 Figure

The Potential Trajectory of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, an Emerging Threat to Health-Care Facilities, and the Impact of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Toolkit.

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), a group of pathogens resistant to most antibiotics and associated with high mortality, are a rising emerging public health threat. Current approaches to infection control and prevention have not been adequate to prevent spread. An important but unproven approach is to have hospitals in a region coordinate surveillance and infection control measures. Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA) simulation model and detailed Orange County, California, patient-level data on adult inpatient hospital and nursing home admissions (2011-2012), we simulated the spread of CRE throughout Orange County health-care facilities under 3 scenarios: no specific control measures, facility-level infection control efforts (uncoordinated control measures), and a coordinated regional effort. Aggressive uncoordinated and coordinated approaches were highly similar, averting 2,976 and 2,789 CRE transmission events, respectively (72.2% and 77.0% of transmission events), by year 5. With moderate control measures, coordinated regional control resulted in 21.3% more averted cases (n = 408) than did uncoordinated control at year 5. Our model suggests that without increased infection control approaches, CRE would become endemic in nearly all Orange County health-care facilities within 10 years. While implementing the interventions in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's CRE toolkit would not completely stop the spread of CRE, it would cut its spread substantially, by half

An Ensemble Kalman-Particle Predictor-Corrector Filter for Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation

An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, the predictor) is used make a large change in the state, followed by a Particle Filer (PF, the corrector) which assigns importance weights to describe non-Gaussian distribution. The weights are obtained by nonparametric density estimation. It is demonstrated on several numerical examples that the new predictor-corrector filter combines the advantages of the EnKF and the PF and that it is suitable for high dimensional states which are discretizations of solutions of partial differential equations.Comment: ICCS 2009, to appear; 9 pages; minor edit

Polymer Translocation in Crowded Environments

We study the effect of the crowded nature of the cellular cytoplasm on the translocation of a polymer through a pore in a membrane. By systematically treating the entropic penalty due to crowding, we show that the translocation dynamics are significantly altered, leading to novel scaling behaviors of the translocation time in terms of chain length. We also observe new and qualitatively different translocation regimes depending upon the extent of crowding, transmembrane chemical potential asymmetry, and polymer length.Comment: 4 figure

Photoemission Evidence for a Remnant Fermi Surface and d-Wave-Like Dispersion in Insulating Ca2CuO2Cl2

An angle resolved photoemission study on Ca2CuO2Cl2, a parent compound of high Tc superconductors is reported. Analysis of the electron occupation probability, n(k) from the spectra shows a steep drop in spectral intensity across a contour that is close to the Fermi surface predicted by the band calculation. This analysis reveals a Fermi surface remnant even though Ca2CuO2Cl2 is a Mott insulator. The lowest energy peak exhibits a dispersion with approximately the |cos(kxa)-cos(kya)| form along this remnant Fermi surface. Together with the data from Dy doped Bi2Sr2CaCu2O(8 + delta) these results suggest that this d-wave like dispersion of the insulator is the underlying reason for the pseudo gap in the underdoped regime.Comment: 9 pages, including 7 figures. Published in Science, one figure correcte

Regulating Scotland's social landlords: localised resistance to technologies of performance management

Influenced by Foucault's later work on governmentality, this paper explores the regulation of social landlords as a 'technology of performance' concerned with governing the conduct of dispersed welfare agencies and the professionals within them. This is a mode of power that is both voluntary and coercive; it seeks to realise its ambitions not through direct acts of intervention, but by promoting the responsible self-governance of autonomous subjects. Through an analysis of the regulatory framework for social landlords in Scotland, this paper highlights the creation of a performance culture that seeks to mobilise housing organisations to reconcile their local management systems and service provision to external standards, whilst simultaneously wielding punitive interventions for non-compliance. However, housing professionals are not passive in all of this, and indeed, actively challenged and resisted these top-down attempts to govern them at arm's-length

Evidence of an upper mantle seismic anomaly opposing the Cocos slab beneath the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico

Subduction of the Cocos plate beneath southern Mexico is characterized by several unusual features, such as a discontinuous volcanic arc, unusual arc chemistry, and anomalously low topography of Tehuantepec Isthmus. Recent seismic images from both receiver functions and seismic tomography suggest that there may be an additional, opposing structure dipping to the southwest from the Gulf of Mexico, and these images have been previously explained by a southwest-dipping slab. However, standard models of the Caribbean tectonic history do not support this interpretation. To better define the Cocos slab's structure and the possible existence of a structure dipping in the opposite direction, dense seismic data across southern Mexico are used to form high-resolution seismic images, based on the 2-D generalized radon transform method, and to relocate regional earthquakes. Our images show the Cocos plate dipping at 30° to the northeast encounters the anomaly that is dipping in the opposite sense at ∼150 km depth. Relocated seismicity clearly delineates a Wadati-Benioff zone that marks the subducting Cocos plate. A cluster of seismicity also appears at ∼150 km depth which may be related to the subduction of the Tehuantepec ridge and/or to the imaged seismic structure with opposite polarity

The Potential of Teledentistry in Community Oral Health for the Pediatric Population

• Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic disease of childhood in the US. • Young children are a particularly vulnerable population because of their dependence, inability to communicate needs, and relative poverty. • Furthermore, this can be exacerbated by disparities such that an increased rates of caries are observed in children who are of low socioeconomic status and minority backgrounds. • However, community oral health screenings can play a vital role in childhood caries as a predominately preventable disease. • The current emphasis on social distance during the COVID-19 pandemic has brought attention to teledentistry, which may have a valuable role in the future of community oral health outreach