Challenges in macro-finance modeling

This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models. Particular attention is paid to the issue of unspanned short-run fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and their potentially adverse effect on the specification of external basis models. The author also discusses the challenge of addressing features such as structural breaks and time-varying inflation uncertainty. Empirical difficulties in the estimation and evaluation of macro-finance models are also discussed in detail.Econometric models ; Macroeconomics

In Search of a Theory of Integrated Marketing Communications

For the most part, the literature base for Integrated Marketing Communication (IMC) has developed from an applied or tactical level rather than from an intellectual or theoretical one. Since industry, practitioner and even academic studies have provided little insight into what IMC is and how it operates, our approach has been to investigate that other IMC community, that is, the academic or instructional group responsible for disseminating IMC knowledge. We proposed that the people providing course instruction and directing research activities have some basis for how they organize, consider and therefore instruct in the area of IMC. A syllabi analysis of 87 IMC units in six countries investigated the content of the unit, its delivery both physically and conceptually, and defined the audience of the unit. The study failed to discover any type of latent theoretical foundation that might be used as a base for understanding IMC. The students who are being prepared to extend, expand and enhance IMC concepts do not appear to be well-served by the curriculum we found in our research. The study concludes with a model for further IMC curriculum development

TIPS: Taking Inflation Premium Seriously

This paper asks the question of whether the newly available TIPS yields data can help us achieve a better understanding of the real term structure and the inflation expectations. The yield differential between TIPS and comparable nominal coupon securities is not a direct measure of inflation expectations, because it contains inflation risk premium, and because the TIPS yield may depart from the true "real yield," due to low investor demand especially in the early years. Without using data from the (indexed) real bond market, we cannot fully identify the real interest rate from the inflation risk premium, unless we assume that all information affecting the real term structure is reflected in the nominal bond prices. Even with this assumption, empirical identification of the real term structure is hard to achieve because of the poor measurement and the frequent revisions of the price series. We develop a flexible multifactor term-structure model to allow for suitable specifications of liquidity premium on TIPS, as well as complications caused by lagged indexation. We estimate the model by the Kalman filter using TIPS yields, nominal bond yields, realized inflation and survey data on interest rates and inflationTIPS, Inflation risk premium, term structure of interest rates

Hydrogen absorption and corrosion studies of zone-refined iron

The lattice constants of zone-refined iron filings and iron whiskers are 2.86623 and 2.86626 Å at 25°C respectively. Their thermal expansion coefficients are both the same, 12.1 x 10⁻⁶ /°C at temperatures 10 - 65°C. The influence of hydrogen on the lattice constant of iron was investigated and it was found that hydrogen has no effect (within the limits of errors) on the lattice constant of iron at room temperature regardless of the charging methods. However, at elevated temperatures hydrogen expands the iron lattice due to increased solubility of the gas. The lattice constant of iron in vacuum and in a hydrogen atmosphere was determined at elevated temperatures and found to follow the empirical equations: in vacuum, a= 2.86522 + 4.28 x 10⁻⁵t and in hydrogen (under conditions of the experiments), a = 2.86554 + 2.45565 x 10⁻⁵t + 6.78828 X 10⁻⁸t² - 7.16922 x 10⁻¹¹ x t³ + 2.08773 x 10⁻¹⁴t⁴, where a is the lattice constant of alpha iron at temperatures between room and 910°C. The lattice constant of gamma iron in the range 910 - 1130°C is the same in vacuum and in hydrogen (under the conditions of the experiments) and follows the equation, a= 3.5771 +7.75 -5 x 10⁻⁵t, where a is the lattice constant at t°C. The thermal expansion coefficients of iron in vacuum are found to stay at a nearly constant value of 14.8 x 10⁻⁶ /°C in the range 200 - 800°C. In a hydrogen atmosphere under the conditions of the experiments it is found to have a maximum (17.3 x 10⁻⁶ /°C) at about 450°C. The effect of hydrogen on the lattice constant of iron at elevated temperatures is discussed. The influence of hydrogen on the density and electrical resistivity of pure iron was investigated and it was found that hydrogen has an effect neither on the density of pure iron nor on its electrical resistivity between 100 and 600°C. The density of zone-refined iron was determined to be 7.8745 ± 0.0002 g/cm³ at 25°C and the actual number of atoms per unit cell was calculated to be very close to the ideal number of two. Hence, the structure of zone-refined iron is sound or perfect. The corrosion pattern of zone-refined iron in some acids (concentrated hydrochloric acid, 2 N sulfuric acid, 1.5 N nitric acid, 25 percent aqueous solution of aqua regia, and concentrated hydrofluoric acid) was studied and the following facts were found: (1) during corrosion of zone-refined iron, three main corrosion patterns develop on the surface and (2) all patterns consist of parallel steps and facets which are arranged in certain crystallographic orientations, and (3) the surface of these steps is mainly close to the planes (110) and (122), (112) and (123). An anodic dissolution study of zone-refined iron in hydrochloric and sulfuric acids showed no measurable amount of anodic disintegration. --Abstract, pages ii-iv

Getting Past the Gatekeepers: The Reception of Restorative Justice inthe Nova Scotian Criminal Justice System

This paper draws upon twelve years of multi-dimensional research and focuses on the reception of restorative justice in the criminal justice system in Nova Scotia. The paper traces the evolution of the restorative justice social movement, examining the launching and take-off phases, the impact on the police gatekeeping role, the receptivity and use of restorative justice by other criminal justice system professionals, its current level of institutionalization in the criminal justice system, and its future prospects