Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

Intercultural ethics: questions of methods in language and intercultural communication

This paper explores how questions of ethics and questions of method are intertwined and unavoidable in any serious study of language and intercultural communication. It argues that the focus on difference and solution orientations to intercultural conflict has been a fundamental driver for theory, data collection and methods in the field. These approaches, the paper argues, have created a considerable consciousness raising industry, with methods, trainings and ‘critical incidents’, which ultimately focus intellectual energy in areas which may be productive in terms of courses and publications but which have a problematic basis in their ethical terrain. Dieser Artikel untersucht wie ethische und methodische Fragen nicht nur ineinander greifen, sondern in keiner ernstzunehmenden Studie ueber Sprache und interkulturelle Kommunikation ausgelassen werden duerfen. Es wird hier argumentiert, dass der Schwerpunkt auf Verschiedenheit und Problemorientierung im interkulturellen Konflikt einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf theoretische Entwicklungen, Datenerhebung und Methoden in diesem Bereich hatte. Dieser Artikel legt auch dar, wie diese Ansaetze eine betraechtliche ‘Bewusstseinsbildungs – Branche' erzeugt haben, mit Methoden, Trainings, und ‘kritischen Interaktionssituationen’, welche letztendlich allen intellektuellen Arbeitseifer auf Bereiche konzentriert hat, die zwar ertragreich sind in Bezug auf Kurse und Publikationen, jedoch eine problematische Grundlage im ethischen Bereich aufweisen

Fitness costs of disrupting circadian rhythms in malaria parasites

Circadian biology assumes that biological rhythms maximize fitness by enabling organisms to coordinate with their environment. Despite circadian clocks being such a widespread phenomenon, demonstrating the fitness benefits of temporal coordination is challenging and such studies are rare. Here, we tested the consequences—for parasites—of being temporally mismatched to host circadian rhythms using the rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium chabaudi. The cyclical nature of malaria infections is well known, as the cell cycles across parasite species last a multiple of approximately 24 h, but the evolutionary explanations for periodicity are poorly understood. We demonstrate that perturbation of parasite rhythms results in a twofold cost to the production of replicating and transmission stages. Thus, synchronization with host rhythms influences in-host survival and between-host transmission potential, revealing a role for circadian rhythms in the evolution of host–parasite interactions. More generally, our results provide a demonstration of the adaptive value of circadian rhythms and the utility of using an evolutionary framework to understand parasite traits

'Has she seen me?':A multiple methods study of the pharmaceutical care needs of older people with sensory impairment in Scotland

Objectives To explore the pharmaceutical care needs of, and service provision to, older people with sensory impairment (visual, hearing and dual impairment) on prescribed polypharmacy (≥4 medicines) in Scotland. Design Interviews were conducted with older people with sensory impairment and community pharmacy personnel, which informed the content of a subsequent national cross-sectional survey of community pharmacists. Setting Scotland, 2015–2016. Participants Older people with sensory impairment and community pharmacy personnel. Results Interviews were completed with 23 older people with sensory impairment (dual impairment n=13, visual or hearing impairment n=5 of each) and 30 community pharmacy personnel from eight of 14 Scottish Health Boards. A total of 171 survey responses were received. Older people reported that they did not always disclose their sensory impairment to pharmacy personnel. They also reported that medicines were difficult to identify particularly when their name, shape or colour changed. Pharmacy personnel relied on visible cues such as white canes or guide dogs to identify visual impairment and suggested that hearing loss was less visible and more difficult to identify. Many assistive aids in support of medicine management, such as dosette boxes, seemed inadequate for complex medication regimens. Few community pharmacy personnel reported receiving training in the care of people with sensory impairment. Conclusions This is the first comprehensive, multistakeholder, in-depth exploration of the pharmaceutical care needs of older people with sensory impairment. Strategies are needed to enable people with sensory impairment to disclose their impairment to pharmacy personnel (and other healthcare providers). Community pharmacy personnel require training to deliver person-centred pharmaceutical care for older people with sensory impairment particularly regarding communication with individuals in this vulnerable population

“Now he sings”. The My Musical Memories Reminiscence Programme: Personalised Interactive Reminiscence Sessions for People Living With Dementia

This paper explores the impact of the My Musical Memories Reminiscence Programme (MMMRP), an innovative intervention that adopts a music-based reminiscence approach. MMMRP builds on the format of the popular Singing for the Brain sessions with the aim of increasing opportunities for interaction and reminiscence among people living with dementia. Data were collected pre- and post-intervention and three months later using structured observation, interviews and focus groups. Results suggest that that programme had a positive impact on participants by promoting engagement, reminiscence and social interaction. For some individuals the impacts continued beyond their participation in the programme. A range of key facilitators for successful implementation of this approach were identified including the Session Leader role, the involvement of informal carers and the input of volunteers

Educating novice practitioners to detect elder financial abuse: A randomised controlled trial

© 2014 Harries et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background - Health and social care professionals are well positioned to identify and intervene in cases of elder financial abuse. An evidence-based educational intervention was developed to advance practitioners’ decision-making in this domain. The objective was to test the effectiveness of a decision-training educational intervention on novices’ ability to detect elder financial abuse. The research was funded by an E.S.R.C. grant reference RES-189-25-0334. Methods - A parallel-group, randomised controlled trial was conducted using a judgement analysis approach. Each participant used the World Wide Web to judge case sets at pre-test and post-test. The intervention group was provided with training after pre-test testing, whereas the control group were purely given instructions to continue with the task. 154 pre-registration health and social care practitioners were randomly allocated to intervention (n78) or control (n76). The intervention comprised of written and graphical descriptions of an expert consensus standard explaining how case information should be used to identify elder financial abuse. Participants’ ratings of certainty of abuse occurring (detection) were correlated with the experts’ ratings of the same cases at both stages of testing. Results - At pre-test, no differences were found between control and intervention on rating capacity. Comparison of mean scores for the control and intervention group at pre-test compared to immediate post-test, showed a statistically significant result. The intervention was shown to have had a positive moderate effect; at immediate post-test, the intervention group’s ratings had become more similar to those of the experts, whereas the control’s capacity did not improve. The results of this study indicate that the decision-training intervention had a positive effect on detection ability. Conclusions - This freely available, web-based decision-training aid is an effective evidence-based educational resource. Health and social care professionals can use the resource to enhance their ability to detect elder financial abuse. It has been embedded in a web resource at http://www.elderfinancialabuse.co.uk.ESR

Convection enhanced delivery of panobinostat (LBH589)-loaded pluronic nano-micelles prolongs survival in the F98 rat glioma model

BACKGROUND: The pan-histone deacetylase inhibitor panobinostat is a potential therapy for malignant glioma, but it is water insoluble and does not cross the blood–brain barrier when administered systemically. In this article, we describe the in vitro and in vivo efficacy of a novel water-soluble nano-micellar formulation of panobinostat designed for administration by convection enhanced delivery (CED). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The in vitro efficacy of panobinostat-loaded nano-micelles against rat F98, human U87-MG and M059K glioma cells and against patient-derived glioma stem cells was measured using a cell viability assay. Nano-micelle distribution in rat brain was analyzed following acute CED using rhodamine-labeled nano-micelles, and toxicity was assayed using immunofluorescent microscopy and synaptophysin enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We compared the survival of the bioluminescent syngenic F98/Fischer344 rat glioblastoma model treated by acute CED of panobinostat-loaded nano-micelles with that of untreated and vehicle-only-treated controls. RESULTS: Nano-micellar panobinostat is cytotoxic to rat and human glioma cells in vitro in a dose-dependent manner following short-time exposure to drug. Fluorescent rhodamine-labelled nano-micelles distribute with a volume of infusion/volume of distribution (Vi/Vd) ratio of four and five respectively after administration by CED. Administration was not associated with any toxicity when compared to controls. CED of panobinostat-loaded nano-micelles was associated with significantly improved survival when compared to controls (n=8 per group; log-rank test, P<0.001). One hundred percent of treated animals survived the 60-day experimental period and had tumour response on post-mortem histological examination. CONCLUSION: CED of nano-micellar panobinostat represents a potential novel therapeutic option for malignant glioma and warrants translation into the clinic

Enhancing communication between dementia care staff and their residents: an arts-inspired intervention

Objectives: The arts are increasingly recognised as important and beneficial activities for people living with dementia. However, there is little peer-reviewed published research exploring arts-based learning for dementia care staff. In response, this paper explores (a) how dementia care staff describe forms of communication in care settings, and (b) the impact on communication following four sessions of ‘Creative Conversations’, an arts-based intervention for skills development. Method: Fourteen care homes received the intervention, delivered as 4 × 2 hour sessions. The intervention uses a range of activities (e.g. poetry, film, music, art making). Twenty–eight care staff were opportunistically sampled (mean age = 42.29), and provided pre-post qualitative data, obtained through interviews. Transcripts were analysed thematically. Results: At baseline, the dominant ‘task-focussed’ nature of care work was described as a barrier to communication, challenging opportunities for developing meaningful relationships with residents. Post-intervention, three primary themes were identified regarding improving communication: (1) learning through the arts (secondary themes: simplicity and subtlety, innovation in communication, and strengthening the role of non-verbal communication), (2) Enhancing creative approaches to care (secondary themes: element of surprise, confidence to experiment and catalyst for communication) and (3) professional introspection (secondary themes: development of empathy, sharing knowledge and experiences and a new appreciation). Conclusions: The intervention validated staff skills and confidence, enabling meaningful interactions that could be creative, ‘in the moment’, spontaneous and improvised. This arts-based intervention, which departs from formal education and fact-based learning may be particularly useful for the development of the dementia care workforce