Malaria Burden through Routine Reporting: Relationship between Incidence and Test Positivity Rates.

Test positivity rate (TPR)-confirmed cases per 100 suspected cases tested, and test-confirmed malaria case rate (IR)-cases per 1,000 population, are common indicators used routinely for malaria surveillance. However, few studies have explored relationships between these indicators over time and space. We studied the relationship between these indicators in children aged < 11 years presenting with suspected malaria to the outpatient departments of level IV health centers in Nagongera, Kihihi, and Walukuba in Uganda from October 2011 to June 2016. We evaluated trends in indicators over time and space, and explored associations using multivariable regression models. Overall, 65,710 participants visited the three clinics. Pairwise comparisons of TPR and IR by month showed similar trends, particularly for TPRs < 50% and during low-transmission seasons, but by village, the relationship was complex. Village mean annual TPRs remained constant, whereas IRs drastically declined with increasing distance from the health center. Villages that were furthest away from the health centers (fourth quartile for distance) had significantly lower IRs than nearby villages (first quartile), with an incidence rate ratio of 0.40 in Nagongera (95% CI: 0.23-0.63; P = 0.001), 0.55 in Kihihi (0.40-0.75; P < 0.001), and 0.25 in Walukuba (0.12-0.51; P < 0.001). Regression analysis results emphasized a nonlinear (cubic) relationship between TPR and IR, after accounting for month, village, season, and demographic factors. Results show that the two indicators are highly relevant for monitoring malaria burden. However, interpretation differs with TPR primarily indicating demand for malaria treatment resources and IR indicating malaria risk among health facility catchment populations

Malaria Burden through routine reporting: relationships between incidence estimates

Test positivity rate (TPR)-confirmed cases per 100 suspected cases tested, and test-confirmed malaria case rate (IR)-cases per 1,000 population, are common indicators used routinely for malaria surveillance. However, few studies have explored relationships between these indicators over time and space. We studied the relationship between these indicators in children aged < 11 years presenting with suspected malaria to the outpatient departments of level IV health centers in Nagongera, Kihihi, and Walukuba in Uganda from October 2011 to June 2016. We evaluated trends in indicators over time and space, and explored associations using multivariable regression models. Overall, 65,710 participants visited the three clinics. Pairwise comparisons of TPR and IR by month showed similar trends, particularly for TPRs < 50% and during low-transmission seasons, but by village, the relationship was complex. Village mean annual TPRs remained constant, whereas IRs drastically declined with increasing distance from the health center. Villages that were furthest away from the health centers (fourth quartile for distance) had significantly lower IRs than nearby villages (first quartile), with an incidence rate ratio of 0.40 in Nagongera (95% CI: 0.23-0.63; P = 0.001), 0.55 in Kihihi (0.40-0.75; P < 0.001), and 0.25 in Walukuba (0.12-0.51; P < 0.001). Regression analysis results emphasized a nonlinear (cubic) relationship between TPR and IR, after accounting for month, village, season, and demographic factors. Results show that the two indicators are highly relevant for monitoring malaria burden. However, interpretation differs with TPR primarily indicating demand for malaria treatment resources and IR indicating malaria risk among health facility catchment populations

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged  15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in  15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions

The Impact of an Intervention to Improve Malaria Care in Public Health Centers on Health Indicators of Children in Tororo, Uganda (PRIME): A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

Optimizing quality of care for malaria and other febrile illnesses is a complex challenge of major public health importance. To evaluate the impact of an intervention aiming to improve malaria case management on the health of community children, a cluster-randomized trial was conducted from 2010-2013 in Tororo, Uganda, where malaria transmission is high. Twenty public health centers were included; 10 were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control. Households within 2 km of health centers provided the sampling frame for the evaluation. The PRIME intervention included training in fever case management using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs), patient-centered services, and health center management; plus provision of mRDTs and artemether-lumefantrine. Cross-sectional community surveys were conducted at baseline and endline (N = 8,766), and a cohort of children was followed for approximately 18 months (N = 992). The primary outcome was prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin < 11.0 g/dL) in children under 5 years of age in the final community survey. The intervention was delivered successfully; however, no differences in prevalence of anemia or parasitemia were observed between the study arms in the final community survey or the cohort. In the final survey, prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age was 62.5% in the intervention versus 63.1% in control (adjusted risk ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval = 0.91-1.13; P = 0.82). The PRIME intervention, focusing on training and commodities, did not produce the expected health benefits in community children in Tororo. This challenges common assumptions that improving quality of care and access to malaria diagnostics will yield health gains

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria delivered to primary schoolchildren provided effective individual protection in Jinja, Uganda: secondary outcomes of a cluster-randomized trial (START-IPT).

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria is recommended as policy for certain high-risk populations, but not currently for schoolchildren. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of IPT with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on primary schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda. Results of the impact of IPT of schoolchildren on community-level transmission have been reported previously. Here, secondary outcomes from a school-based survey are presented. METHODS: Eighty-four clusters (one primary school plus 100 households) were randomized to intervention and control (1:1 ratio). Participants from intervention schools received monthly IPT with DP for up to 6 rounds (June-December 2014). At endline (November-December 2014), randomly selected children from all 84 schools were surveyed (13 per school) and thick blood smears were done. Those with fever or history of fever were tested with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria. Haemoglobin was measured in every fifth participant. Outcome measures included prevalence of asexual parasites and gametocytes (by microscopy), and prevalence of anaemia. Prevalence outcomes were analysed using generalized linear Poisson models with log link function, incorporating a cluster-level random intercept and quantified using prevalence risk ratios. RESULTS: Among 23,280 students listed on the 42 intervention school registers, 10,079 (43.3%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled into the IPT intervention and received at least one dose of DP; of these, 9286 (92.1%) received at least one full (3-day) course. In total, 1092 children were enrolled into the final school survey (546 per arm) and had a thick blood smear done; of these, 255 had haemoglobin measured (129 intervention, 126 control). Children in the intervention arm were less likely to have asexual parasites (9.2% intervention vs 44.1% control, adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.22 [95% CI 0.16-0.30] p < 0.001), gametocytes (3.1% intervention vs 9.5% control, aRR 0.34 [95% CI 0.20-0.56] p < 0.001), fever (20.2% intervention vs 56.2% control, aRR 0.35 [95% CI 0.25-0.50] p < 0.001), or symptomatic malaria (5.1% intervention vs 35.7% control, aRR 0.14 [95% CI 0.08-0.26] p < 0.001). Prevalence of anaemia and mean haemoglobin were similar in both study arms. CONCLUSIONS: School-aged children are a major reservoir of malaria parasites. Delivering IPT to schoolchildren would benefit individual children and may reduce transmission. School-based IPT could help to intensify malaria control toward elimination, and should be considered for policies and programmes. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02009215), Registered 11 December 2013. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02009215

Association Between Recent Overnight Travel and Risk of Malaria: A Prospective Cohort Study at 3 Sites in Uganda.

Background: Human movement can undermine malaria control efforts. However, understanding of the association between travel and malaria infection in Africa is limited. We evaluated the association between recent overnight travel and malaria incidence in Uganda. Methods: All children aged 0.5-10 years and 1 adult living in 266 randomly selected households within 3 different regions of Uganda were followed up prospectively. Information on overnight travel was collected in 2015-2016. Malaria, defined as fever with parasites detected by microscopy, was measured using passive surveillance. Results: At least 1 overnight trip was reported by 64 of 275 (23.3%) participants in Walukuba, 37 of 317 (11.7%) in Nagongera, and 19 of 314 (6.1%) in Kihihi. Among individuals who traveled, the incidence of malaria was higher in the first 60 days after traveling, compared with periods without recent travel at all 3 sites (overall, 1.15 vs 0.33 episodes per person-year; incidence rate ratio, 3.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.85-6.73; P < .001). Risk factors for malaria within 60 days after overnight travel included young age (19.5% in children vs 4.9% in adults; odds ratio, 5.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-21.0; P = .02) and not using an insecticide-treated net during travel (18.0% for no use vs 4.1% for any use; 5.10; 1.07-24.5; P = .04). Conclusions: Recent overnight travel was associated with a higher incidence of malaria. Individuals who travel may represent a high-risk group that could be targeted for malaria control interventions, particularly use of insecticide-treated nets

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity

Background: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. Methods: From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). Results: In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18–0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49–0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002–0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005–0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07–0.33, p < 0.001). Conclusions: LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority

Effectiveness of in-service training plus the collaborative improvement strategy on the quality of routine malaria surveillance data: results of a pilot study in Kayunga District, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data are essential for malaria control, but quality is often poor. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the novel combination of training plus an innovative quality improvement method-collaborative improvement (CI)-on the quality of malaria surveillance data in Uganda. METHODS: The intervention (training plus CI, or TCI), including brief in-service training and CI, was delivered in 5 health facilities (HFs) in Kayunga District from November 2015 to August 2016. HF teams monitored data quality, conducted plan-do-study-act cycles to test changes, attended periodic learning sessions, and received CI coaching. An independent evaluation was conducted to assess data completeness, accuracy, and timeliness. Using an interrupted time series design without a separate control group, data were abstracted from 156,707 outpatient department (OPD) records, laboratory registers, and aggregated monthly reports (MR) for 4 time periods: baseline-12 months, TCI scale-up-5 months; CI implementation-9 months; post-intervention-4 months. Monthly OPD register completeness was measured as the proportion of patient records with a malaria diagnosis with: (1) all data fields completed, and (2) all clinically-relevant fields completed. Accuracy was the relative difference between: (1) number of monthly malaria patients reported in OPD register versus MR, and (2) proportion of positive malaria tests reported in the laboratory register versus MR. Data were analysed with segmented linear regression modelling. RESULTS: Data completeness increased substantially following TCI. Compared to baseline, all-field completeness increased by 60.1%-points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46.9-73.2%) at mid-point, and clinically-relevant completeness increased by 61.6%-points (95% CI: 56.6-66.7%). A relative - 57.4%-point (95% confidence interval: - 105.5, - 9.3%) change, indicating an improvement in accuracy of malaria test positivity reporting, but no effect on data accuracy for monthly malaria patients, were observed. Cost per additional malaria patient, for whom complete clinically-relevant data were recorded in the OPD register, was $3.53 (95$3.03, $4.15). CONCLUSIONS: TCI improved malaria surveillance completeness considerably, with limited impact on accuracy. Although these results are promising, the intervention's effectiveness should be evaluated in more HFs, with longer follow-up, ideally in a randomized trial, before recommending CI for wide-scale use

Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on malaria indicators in Uganda (LLINEUP): final results of a cluster-randomised trial embedded in a national distribution campaign

Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the foundation of malaria control but resistance of mosquito vectors to pyrethroids threatens their effectiveness. We embedded a cluster-randomised trial into Uganda’s 2017–18 campaign to distribute LLINs. LLINs with piperonyl butoxide (PBO) reduced parasite prevalence more effectively than conventional LLINs (without PBO) for 18 months. Here, we report the final 25-month survey results. Methods LLINEUP was a cluster-randomised trial conducted in 48 districts in eastern and western Uganda. 104 health subdistricts (clusters) without ongoing or planned indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic, Basel, Switzerland) were eligible for inclusion in the trial. Clusters were randomly assigned to PBO LLINs (PermaNet 3.0 or Olyset Plus) and conventional LLINs (PermaNet 2.0 or Olyset Net) with proportionate randomisation using STATA version 14.2. LLINs were delivered from March 25, 2017, to March 18, 2018. Between April 23, 2019, and Sept 13, 2019, community surveys were conducted in 50 randomly selected households per cluster; ten households per cluster were randomly selected for entomology surveys. Mosquitoes were collected in the morning from indoor surfaces of households using Prokopack aspirators. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, only 90 of the 104 clusters were surveyed at 25 months. The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by microscopy in children aged 2–10 years, assessed in the as-treated population, determined using the results from the 6-month household survey on the type of LLINs received in each cluster. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395, and is now completed. Findings In the as-treated analysis, two clusters were excluded (no predominant LLIN received) and four were reassigned; 40 PBO LLIN clusters (30 PermaNet 3.0, ten Olyset Plus) and 48 non-PBO LLIN (36 PermaNet 2.0, 12 Olyset Net) were included. Parasite prevalence was 17·1% (506 of 2958 participants) in the PBO group and 19·8% (701 of 3534) in the non-PBO group (prevalence ratio adjusted for baseline 0·80 [95% CI 0·69–0·93], p=0·0048). Comparing within-treatment group parasite prevalence to baseline, parasite prevalence ratios were lower in the PBO groups at all timepoints, but the difference was greatest at 6 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 28·8% [1001 of 3472, 95% CI 27·3–30·4] vs at 6 months 12·0% [361 of 3009, 10·9–13·2], prevalence ratio [PR] 0·43 [95% CI 0·36–0·52], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 25·4% [1015 of 4004, 24·0–26·7] vs 6 months 14·8% [526 of 3551, 13·7–16·0], PR 0·60 [0·54–0·68], p<0·0001) and 25 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 17·1% [506 of 2958, 15·8–18·5], PR 0·63 [95% CI 0·57–0·71], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 19·8% [701 of 3534, 18·5–21·2], PR 0·79 [0·73–0·86], p<0·0001). Interpretation In Uganda, PBO LLINs outperformed pyrethroid-only LLINs for 25 months. WHO concluded that PBO LLINs are more effective against malaria than non-PBO LLINs when resistance to pyrethroids is high and issued a conditional recommendation suggesting PBO LLINs should be deployed in areas of pyrethroid resistance