Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere

A shift in climate occurred during the mid-1970s that affected the hydroclimate of the Southern Hemisphere resulting in drying trends across continental regions including Australia, New Zealand and southern and western Africa. There is also anecdotal evidence of other periods of climatic synchronicity in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g., the 1920s and 1940s), indicating that the mid-1970s event may not be anomalous. This paper identifies periods within the last ~120 years using statistical analysis where dry spells (in terms of annual to multi-decadal rainfall deficiencies) have coincided across the continental Southern Hemisphere in order to characterize temporal consistency. It is shown that synchronicity of dry spells is (a) most likely common over the last 120 years and (b) associated with changes in the large-scale climate modes of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper have marked implications for drought management and drought forecasting studies in the Southern Hemisphere

Infinite Lorentz boost along the M-theory circle and non-asymptotically flat solutions in supergravities

Certain non-asymptotically flat but supersymmetric classical solution of the type IIA supergravity can be interpreted as the infinitely-boosted version of the D-particle solution along the M-theory circle. By a chain of T-dual transformations, this analysis also applies to yield non-asymptotically flat solutions from the asymptotically flat and (non)-extremal solutions with intersecting D-strings and D five-branes of the type IIB supergravity compactified on a five-torus. Under S-duality, the non-asymptotically flat solutions in this context can in particular be used to describe the (1+1)-dimensional CGHS type black holes via spontaneous compactifications.Comment: 14 pages, Revte

Links between the Big Dry in Australia and hemispheric multi-decadal climate variability – implications for water resource management

Southeast Australia (SEA) experienced a protracted drought during the mid-1990s until early 2010 (known as the Big Dry or Millennium Drought) that resulted in serious environmental, social and economic effects. This paper analyses a range of historical climate data sets to place the recent drought into context in terms of Southern Hemisphere inter-annual to multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability. The findings indicate that the recent Big Dry in SEA is in fact linked to the widespread Southern Hemisphere climate shift towards drier conditions that began in the mid-1970s. However, it is shown that this link is masked because the large-scale climate drivers responsible for drying in other regions of the mid-latitudes since the mid-1970s did not have the same effect on SEA during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s. More specifically, smaller-scale synoptic processes resulted in elevated autumn and winter rainfall (a crucial period for SEA hydrology) during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s, which punctuated the longer-term drying. From the mid-1990s to 2010 the frequency of the synoptic processes associated with elevated autumn/winter rainfall decreased, resulting in a return to drier than average conditions and the onset of the Big Dry. The findings presented in this paper have marked implications for water management and climate attribution studies in SEA, in particular for understanding and dealing with "baseline" (i.e. current) hydroclimatic risks

Graviton-Scalar Interaction in the PP-Wave Background

We compute the graviton two scalar off-shell interaction vertex at tree level in Type IIB superstring theory on the pp-wave background using the light-cone string field theory formalism. We then show that the tree level vertex vanishes when all particles are on-shell and conservation of p_{+} and p_{-} are imposed. We reinforce our claim by calculating the same vertex starting from the corresponding SUGRA action expanded around the pp-wave background in the light-cone gauge.Comment: 26 pages, harvmac One reference added. A few comments changed in the introduction. The "cyclic perms." term removed from some equations as unnecessary and equations (2.38) and (3.19) are corrected accordingl

Tropical cyclone perceptions, impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific: an urban perspective from Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga

The destruction caused by tropical cyclone (TC) Pam in March 2015 is considered one of the worst natural disasters in the history of Vanuatu. It has highlighted the need for a better understanding of TC impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region. Therefore, the key aims of this study are to (i) understand local perceptions of TC activity, (ii) investigate impacts of TC activity and (iii) uncover adaptation strategies used to offset the impacts of TCs. To address these aims, a survey (with 130 participants from urban areas) was conducted across three SWP small island states (SISs): Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga (FVT). It was found that respondents generally had a high level of risk perception and awareness of TCs and the associated physical impacts, but lacked an understanding of the underlying weather conditions. Responses highlighted that current methods of adaptation generally occur at the local level, immediately prior to a TC event (preparation of property, gathering of food, finding a safe place to shelter). However higher level adaptation measures (such as the modification to building structures) may reduce vulnerability further. Finally, we discuss the potential of utilising weather-related traditional knowledge and non-traditional knowledge of empirical and climate-model-based weather forecasts to improve TC outlooks, which would ultimately reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity. Importantly, lessons learned from this study may result in the modification and/or development of existing adaptation strategies

A Calculation of the plane wave string Hamiltonian from N=4 super-Yang-Mills theory

Berenstein, Maldacena, and Nastase have proposed, as a limit of the strong form of the AdS/CFT correspondence, that string theory in a particular plane wave background is dual to a certain subset of operators in the N=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. Even though this is a priori a strong/weak coupling duality, the matrix elements of the string theory Hamiltonian, when expressed in gauge theory variables, are analytic in the 't Hooft coupling constant. This allows one to conjecture that, like the masses of excited string states, these can be recovered using perturbation theory in Yang-Mills theory. In this paper we identify the difference between the generator of scale transformations and a particular U(1) R-symmetry generator as the operator dual to the string theory Hamiltonian for nonvanishing string coupling. We compute its matrix elements and find that they agree with the string theory prediction provided that the state-operator map is modified for nonvanishing string coupling. We construct this map explicitly and calculate the anomalous dimensions of the new operators. We identify the component arising from the modification of the state-operator map with the contribution of the string theory contact terms to the masses of string states.Comment: 38 pages, Latex; v2: Comparison with string theory changed in light of corrections to string theory results in hep-th/0206073 v3; state-operator map modified; Physical interpretation and conclusions unchange

Developing a Data Dashboard Framework for Population Health Surveillance: Widening Access to Clinical Trial Findings

Background: Population surveillance sites generate many datasets relevant to disease surveillance. However, there is a risk that these data are underutilized because of the volumes of data gathered and the lack of means to quickly disseminate analysis. Data visualization offers a means to quickly disseminate, understand, and interpret datasets, facilitating evidence-driven decision making through increased access to information. Objectives: This paper describes the development and evaluation of a framework for data dashboard design, to visualize datasets produced at a demographic health surveillance site. The aim of this research was to produce a comprehensive, reusable, and scalable dashboard design framework to fit the unique requirements of the context. Methods: The framework was developed and implemented at a demographic surveillance platform at the Africa Health Research Institute, in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. This context represents an exemplar implementation for the use of data dashboards within a population health-monitoring setting. Before the full launch, an evaluation study was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of the dashboard framework as a data communication and decision-making tool. The evaluation included a quantitative task evaluation to assess usability and a qualitative questionnaire exploring the attitudes to the use of dashboards. Results: The evaluation participants were drawn from a diverse group of users working at the site (n=20), comprising of community members, nurses, scientific and operational staff. Evaluation demonstrated high usability for the dashboard across user groups, with scientific and operational staff having minimal issues in completing tasks. There were notable differences in the efficiency of task completion among user groups, indicating varying familiarity with data visualization. The majority of users felt that the dashboards provided a clear understanding of the datasets presented and had a positive attitude to their increased use. Conclusions: Overall, this exploratory study indicates the viability of the data dashboard framework in communicating data trends within population surveillance setting. The usability differences among the user groups discovered during the evaluation demonstrate the need for the user-led design of dashboards in this context, addressing heterogeneous computer and visualization literacy present among the diverse potential users present in such settings. The questionnaire highlighted the enthusiasm for increased access to datasets from all stakeholders highlighting the potential of dashboards in this context

Model of black hole evolution

From the postulate that a black hole can be replaced by a boundary on the apparent horizon with suitable boundary conditions, an unconventional scenario for the evolution emerges. Only an insignificant fraction of energy of order $(mG)^{-1}$ is radiated out. The outgoing wave carries a very small part of the quantum mechanical information of the collapsed body, the bulk of the information remaining in the final stable black hole geometry.Comment: 9 pages, harvmac, 3 figures, minor addition

Model of black hole evolution

From the postulate that a black hole can be replaced by a boundary on the apparent horizon with suitable boundary conditions, an unconventional scenario for the evolution emerges. Only an insignificant fraction of energy of order $(mG)^{-1}$ is radiated out. The outgoing wave carries a very small part of the quantum mechanical information of the collapsed body, the bulk of the information remaining in the final stable black hole geometry.Comment: 9 pages, harvmac, 3 figures, minor addition