Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium E0, when the effective reproduction number RVT≤1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium E1, when RVT>1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at RVT=1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot) to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education). Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture) are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis

Proceedings of the Salford Postgraduate Annual Research Conference (SPARC) 2011

These proceedings bring together a selection of papers from the 2011 Salford Postgraduate Annual Research Conference(SPARC). It includes papers from PhD students in the arts and social sciences, business, computing, science and engineering, education, environment, built environment and health sciences. Contributions from Salford researchers are published here alongside papers from students at the Universities of Anglia Ruskin, Birmingham City, Chester,De Montfort, Exeter, Leeds, Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores and Manchester

Mathematical modelling of earlier stages of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Ghana

In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the rest of the world, the impact on the local health service is still significant. Compartmental models are a useful framework for investigating transmission of diseases in societies. To understand how the infection will spread and how to limit the outbreak. We have developed a modified SEIR compartmental model with nine compartments (CoVCom9) to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ghana. We have carried out a detailed mathematical analysis of the CoVCom9, including the derivation of the basic reproduction number, . In particular, we have shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when  via a candidate Lyapunov function. Using the SARS-CoV-2 reported data for confirmed-positive cases and deaths from March 13 to August 10, 2020, we have parametrised the CoVCom9 model. The results of this fit show good agreement with data. We used Latin hypercube sampling-rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of  since the results derived are significant in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that over this five month period, the basic reproduction number is given by , with the 95% confidence interval being , and the mean value being . Of the 32 parameters in the model, we find that just six have a significant influence on , these include the rate of testing, where an increasing testing rate contributes to the reduction of 

A study of genetic polymorphisms of milk β-lactoglobulin, α S1 -casein, β-casein, and κ-casein in five dairy breeds

Gene frequencies of the milk β-lactoglobulin, α S1 -casein, β-casein, and κ-casein loci have been estimated from 1663 cows of five dairy breeds. Departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was found only in the κ-casein system in Jerseys. However, chance alone could have accounted for this single significant finding. Results of pairwise comparisons among the five breeds of allele frequencies at these milk protein loci indicate that of the 40 possible tests, only six comparisons are not significant at the 5% probability level. It would appear that these breeds are characterizable in terms of the gene frequencies of these milk protein loci. Nonindependent assortment of genotypes among these milk protein loci was also studied. The closely linked casein loci were not independent in almost all the breeds where tests could be carried out. The only exception was between the α S1 -casein and κ-casein loci in Holsteins. β-Lactoglobulin was independent of the casein loci in all breeds except Brown Swiss, where it was found to be significantly associated with κ-casein. Close linkage is proposed as an important factor for maintaining the observed milk protein polymorphisms.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44176/1/10528_2004_Article_BF00485960.pd

Physical activity and mental health in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Physical activity is prescribed as a component of primary management for Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS). This study investigates the association between physical activity and mental health as well as the exercise barriers, motivators and support providers for younger women with and without PCOS to assist in physical activity uptake and prescription for these women

Polycystic ovary syndrome: a complex condition with psychological, reproductive and metabolic manifestations that impacts on health across the lifespan

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is of clinical and public health importance as it is very common, affecting up to one in five women of reproductive age. It has significant and diverse clinical implications including reproductive (infertility, hyperandrogenism, hirsutism), metabolic (insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, adverse cardiovascular risk profiles) and psychological features (increased anxiety, depression and worsened quality of life). Polycystic ovary syndrome is a heterogeneous condition and, as such, clinical and research agendas are broad and involve many disciplines. The phenotype varies widely depending on life stage, genotype, ethnicity and environmental factors including lifestyle and bodyweight. Importantly, PCOS has unique interactions with the ever increasing obesity prevalence worldwide as obesity-induced insulin resistance significantly exacerbates all the features of PCOS. Furthermore, it has clinical implications across the lifespan and is relevant to related family members with an increased risk for metabolic conditions reported in first-degree relatives. Therapy should focus on both the short and long-term reproductive, metabolic and psychological features. Given the aetiological role of insulin resistance and the impact of obesity on both hyperinsulinaemia and hyperandrogenism, multidisciplinary lifestyle improvement aimed at normalising insulin resistance, improving androgen status and aiding weight management is recognised as a crucial initial treatment strategy. Modest weight loss of 5% to 10% of initial body weight has been demonstrated to improve many of the features of PCOS. Management should focus on support, education, addressing psychological factors and strongly emphasising healthy lifestyle with targeted medical therapy as required. Monitoring and management of long-term metabolic complications is also an important part of routine clinical care. Comprehensive evidence-based guidelines are needed to aid early diagnosis, appropriate investigation, regular screening and treatment of this common condition. Whilst reproductive features of PCOS are well recognised and are covered here, this review focuses primarily on the less appreciated cardiometabolic and psychological features of PCOS

Large effects on body mass index and insulin resistance of fat mass and obesity associated gene (FTO) variants in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)

BACKGROUND: The polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a common endocrine disorder in women of child-bearing age, mainly characterised by chronic anovulation and hyperandrogenism, is often associated with insulin resistance (IR) and obesity. Its etiology and the role of IR and obesity in PCOS are not fully understood. We examined the influence of validated genetic variants conferring susceptibility to obesity and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on metabolic and PCOS-specific traits in patients with PCOS. METHODS: We conducted an association study in 386 patients with PCOS (defined by the Rotterdam-criteria) using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in or in proximity to the fat mass and obesity associated gene (FTO), insulin-induced gene-2 (INSIG2), transcription factor 7-like 2 gene (TCF7L2) and melanocortin 4 receptor gene (MC4R). To compare the effect of FTO obesity risk alleles on BMI in patients with PCOS to unselected females of the same age range we genotyped 1,971 females from the population-based KORA-S4 study (Kooperative Gesundheitsforschung im Raum Augsburg, Survey 4). RESULTS: The FTO risk allele was associated with IR traits and measures of increased body weight. In addition, the TCF7L2 SNP was associated with body weight traits. For the SNPs in the vicinity of INSIG2 and MC4R and for the other examined phenotypes there was no evidence for an association. In PCOS the observed per risk allele effect of FTO intron 1 SNP rs9939609 on BMI was +1.56 kg/m2, whereas it was +0.46 kg/m2 in females of the same age range from the general population as shown previously. CONCLUSION: The stronger effect on body weight of the FTO SNP in PCOS might well have implications for the etiology of the disease

State of the Art Review: Emerging Therapies: The Use of Insulin Sensitizers in the Treatment of Adolescents with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS)

PCOS, a heterogeneous disorder characterized by cystic ovarian morphology, androgen excess, and/or irregular periods, emerges during or shortly after puberty. Peri- and post-pubertal obesity, insulin resistance and consequent hyperinsulinemia are highly prevalent co-morbidities of PCOS and promote an ongoing state of excess androgen. Given the relationship of insulin to androgen excess, reduction of insulin secretion and/or improvement of its action at target tissues offer the possibility of improving the physical stigmata of androgen excess by correction of the reproductive dysfunction and preventing metabolic derangements from becoming entrenched. While lifestyle changes that concentrate on behavioral, dietary and exercise regimens should be considered as first line therapy for weight reduction and normalization of insulin levels in adolescents with PCOS, several therapeutic options are available and in wide use, including oral contraceptives, metformin, thiazolidenediones and spironolactone. Overwhelmingly, the data on the safety and efficacy of these medications derive from the adult PCOS literature. Despite the paucity of randomized control trials to adequately evaluate these modalities in adolescents, their use, particularly that of metformin, has gained popularity in the pediatric endocrine community. In this article, we present an overview of the use of insulin sensitizing medications in PCOS and review both the adult and (where available) adolescent literature, focusing specifically on the use of metformin in both mono- and combination therapy