Antibiotic use and prescription and its effects on Enterobacteriaceae in the gut in children with mild respiratory infections in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. A prospective observational outpatient study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Treatment guidelines do not recommend antibiotic use for acute respiratory infections (ARI), except for streptococcal pharyngitis/tonsillitis and pneumonia. However, antibiotics are prescribed frequently for children with ARI, often in absence of evidence for bacterial infection. The objectives of this study were 1) to assess the appropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions for mild ARI in paediatric outpatients in relation to available guidelines and detected pathogens, 2) to assess antibiotic use on presentation using questionnaires and detection in urine 3) to assess the carriage rates and proportions of resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae before, during and after consultation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients were prospectively enrolled in Children's Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and diagnoses, prescribed therapy and outcome were recorded on first visit and on follow-up after 7 days. Respiratory bacterial and viral pathogens were detected using molecular assays. Antibiotic use before presentation was assessed using questionnaires and urine HPLC. The impact of antibiotic usage on intestinal Enterobacteriaceae was assessed with semi-quantitative culture on agar with and without antibiotics on presentation and after 7 and 28 days. RESULTS: A total of 563 patients were enrolled between February 2009 and February 2010. Antibiotics were prescribed for all except 2 of 563 patients. The majority were 2nd and 3rd generation oral cephalosporins and amoxicillin with or without clavulanic acid. Respiratory viruses were detected in respiratory specimens of 72.5% of patients. Antibiotic use was considered inappropriate in 90.1% and 67.5%, based on guidelines and detected pathogens, respectively. On presentation parents reported antibiotic use for 22% of patients, 41% of parents did not know and 37% denied antibiotic use. Among these three groups, six commonly used antibiotics were detected with HPLC in patients' urine in 49%, 40% and 14%, respectively. Temporary selection of 3rd generation cephalosporin resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae during antibiotic use was observed, with co-selection of resistance to aminoglycosides and fluoroquinolones. CONCLUSIONS: We report overuse and overprescription of antibiotics for uncomplicated ARI with selection of resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae, posing a risk for community transmission and persistence in a setting of a highly granular healthcare system and unrestricted access to antibiotics through private pharmacies. REGISTRATION: This study was registered at the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number registry under number ISRCTN32862422: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN32862422

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

A mixed-equilibrium model of individual and household activity–travel choices in multimodal transportation networks

This paper develops a novel household-oriented activity-based mixed-equilibrium model for estimating individual and household activity–travel choices in multimodal transportation networks with interactions between private car and public transit modes. In the novel model, household members with heterogeneous errors of perception on the time-dependent utility of different activity types make daily joint/solo activity–travel choices in a mixed-equilibrium manner, which maximizes either perceived household utility or perceived individual utility. A logit-based stochastic choice model is developed to capture the mixed equilibrium with heterogeneous errors of perception and used to predict the choices of alternative joint activity–travel paths (JATPs) on a supernetwork platform. Based on this stochastic JATP choice model, the mixed-equilibrium model is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality (VI) problem and solved using a modified diagonalization method. This converts the time-dependent activity–travel scheduling problem into an equivalent static traffic assignment problem on JATPs. The conditions required for the existence and uniqueness of a solution to the equivalent VI problem in terms of a JATP flow pattern are also identified. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the model’s merits and its applications for examining the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Expression-Based Cell Lineage Analysis in Drosophila Through a Course-Based Research Experience for Early Undergraduates.

A variety of genetic techniques have been devised to determine cell lineage relationships during tissue development. Some of these systems monitor cell lineages spatially and/or temporally without regard to gene expression by the cells, whereas others correlate gene expression with the lineage under study. The GAL4 Technique for Real-time and Clonal Expression (G-TRACE) system allows for rapid, fluorescent protein-based visualization of both current and past GAL4 expression patterns and is therefore amenable to genome-wide expression-based lineage screens. Here we describe the results from such a screen, performed by undergraduate students of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Undergraduate Research Consortium for Functional Genomics (URCFG) and high school summer scholars as part of a discovery-based education program. The results of the screen, which reveal novel expression-based lineage patterns within the brain, the imaginal disc epithelia, and the hematopoietic lymph gland, have been compiled into the G-TRACE Expression Database (GED), an online resource for use by the Drosophila research community. The impact of this discovery-based research experience on student learning gains was assessed independently and shown to be greater than that of similar programs conducted elsewhere. Furthermore, students participating in the URCFG showed considerably higher STEM retention rates than UCLA STEM students that did not participate in the URCFG, as well as STEM students nationwide

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

Coronal Heating as Determined by the Solar Flare Frequency Distribution Obtained by Aggregating Case Studies

Flare frequency distributions represent a key approach to addressing one of the largest problems in solar and stellar physics: determining the mechanism that counter-intuitively heats coronae to temperatures that are orders of magnitude hotter than the corresponding photospheres. It is widely accepted that the magnetic field is responsible for the heating, but there are two competing mechanisms that could explain it: nanoflares or Alfv\'en waves. To date, neither can be directly observed. Nanoflares are, by definition, extremely small, but their aggregate energy release could represent a substantial heating mechanism, presuming they are sufficiently abundant. One way to test this presumption is via the flare frequency distribution, which describes how often flares of various energies occur. If the slope of the power law fitting the flare frequency distribution is above a critical threshold, $\alpha=2$ as established in prior literature, then there should be a sufficient abundance of nanoflares to explain coronal heating. We performed $>$600 case studies of solar flares, made possible by an unprecedented number of data analysts via three semesters of an undergraduate physics laboratory course. This allowed us to include two crucial, but nontrivial, analysis methods: pre-flare baseline subtraction and computation of the flare energy, which requires determining flare start and stop times. We aggregated the results of these analyses into a statistical study to determine that $\alpha = 1.63 \pm 0.03$. This is below the critical threshold, suggesting that Alfv\'en waves are an important driver of coronal heating.Comment: 1,002 authors, 14 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, published by The Astrophysical Journal on 2023-05-09, volume 948, page 7