22 research outputs found
Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
peer reviewedClimate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricultural production in many areas requiring significant changes in agricultural practices and land distribution. The study provided estimates of the economic impacts of climate change, compared these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimated the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which will also influence agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, the type of irrigation, and technological development. We demonstrated how changes in cereal production and area, affluence, and climate (rainfall and temperature) can be acquired for 12 regions of Morocco and used to develop and validate an earth system model in relation to the environment and socio-economic level, which projects their impact on current and potential land use over the next 20 years. We used different mathematical equations based on cereal area and production, population, consumption (kg/person), and change in climate (temperature and rainfall) in bour and irrigated areas for the growing season of 2014 in 12 regions to project agricultural land use over the next 20 years. Therefore, several possible scenarios were investigated to explore how variations in climate change, socio-economic level, and technological development will affect the future of agricultural land use over the next 20 years, which in turn could have important implications for human well-being. Among the 12 Moroccan regions, only 4 had a surplus of cereal production compared to their local consumption. The increase in population will generate a cereal deficit in 2024 and 2034, thus lowering the average annual quantity available per capita of cereals from 204.75 to 160.61 kg/p in 2014 and 2034, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the amount of cereals per person by 5 kg/p and 25 kg/p so that the 2014 production could satisfy the population projected in 2024 and 2034. We found that cereal production will decrease with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation according to the simulated scenarios, which might not satisfy the growing population in 2024 and 2034. This study provides a practical tool that can be used to provide policy makers with advice on food security assurance policy based on our current knowledge of the impending onset of climate change, including socio-economic statistics and the agricultural constraints of cereals in the 12 regions of Morocco
Phylotranscriptomics interrogation uncovers a complex evolutionary history for the planarian genus Dugesia (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida) in the Western Mediterranean
The Mediterranean is one of the most biodiverse areas of the Paleartic region. Here, basing on large data sets of single copy orthologs obtained from transcriptomic data, we investigated the evolutionary history of the genus Dugesia in the Western Mediterranean area. The results corroborated that the complex paleogeological history of the region was an important driver of diversification for the genus, speciating as microplates and islands were forming. These processes led to the differentiation of three main biogeographic clades: Iberia-Apennines-Alps, Corsica-Sardinia, and Iberia-Africa. The internal relationships of these major clades were analysed with several representative samples per species. The use of large data sets regarding the number of loci and samples, as well as state-of-the-art phylogenomic inference methods allowed us to answer different unresolved questions about the evolution of particular groups, such as the diversification path of D. subtentaculata in the Iberian Peninsula and its colonization of Africa. Additionally, our results support the differentiation of D. benazzii in two lineages which could represent two species. Finally, we analysed here for the first time a comprehensive number of samples from several asexual Iberian populations whose assignment at the species level has been an enigma through the years. The phylogenies obtained with different inference methods showed a branching topology of asexual individuals at the base of sexual clades. We hypothesize that this unexpected topology is related to long-term asexuality. This work represents the first phylotranscriptomic analysis of Tricladida, laying the first stone of the genomic era in phylogenetic studies on this taxonomic group
Analysis of the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate and Anthropogenic Impacts in the Beni Mellal-Khénifra Region, Morocco
peer reviewedClimate change (CC) is a significant concern for many climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors, such as agriculture and food production. The current study aimed at analyzing the current vulnerability of the Moroccan agricultural sector to CC and anthropogenic impact and identifying the relevant vulnerability factors in the Beni Mellal-Khénifra region. In this regard, a multidisciplinary approach was used to assess the vulnerability. To do this, an index based on five components was designed, including climate, plant production, animal production, geography, and anthropogenic aspects. The numerical model has benefited from data retrieved from three recognized indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and from the reported data of the agricultural, environmental, and socio-economic governmental departments. The results showed that there was a significant vulnerability of all the five components to CC. Particularly, the province of Azilal was the most vulnerable, followed by Khénifra, Fquih Ben Salah, and Beni Mellal, while Khouribga was the least vulnerable. These components might help to determine the mechanisms and priority sectors, the most vulnerable to CC and anthropogenic effects, to take urgent measures. These may guide decision makers to carry out effective actions, namely, the amounts to be spent to mitigate this vulnerability. It will also make it possible to know where, when, and how the adaptation should take place
L'adaptation au changement climatique dans le bassin de Tensift au Maroc par une gestion améliorée du bassin versant et le paiement pour les services environnementaux - rapport final
Ce projet bĂ©nĂ©ficie d'une subvention du Centre de recherches pour le dĂ©veloppement international (CRDI), Ottawa, Canada.Le dĂ©fi que le prĂ©sent projet de recherche a essayĂ© de relever est de trouver des pistes pour repenser la GIRE dans un contexte du changement climatique, tout en prenant en considĂ©ration le maintien de la production des biens et services environnementaux. Ceci ne pourra se rĂ©aliser quâĂ travers des actions permettant de prendre en considĂ©ration la donne climatique et les instruments basĂ©s sur le marchĂ© (e.g. le Paiement pour les Services Environnementaux (PSE)) dans les politiques de gestion de lâeau
Contribution Ă l'Ă©cologie de l'espĂšce
Les recherches Ă©cologiques concernant la nouvelle espĂšce marocaine de Phreodrilidae en provenance du sous-Ă©coulement de
divers oueds et de puits du Haut Atlas de la région de Marrakech nous ont permis de confirmer son statut d'espÚce stygobie, sa
préférence pour les biotopes hyporhéiques et les sédiments sableux ainsi que le rÎle déterminant de la texture des sédiments sur
son mode de répartition.
Une étude conjointe du bol alimentaire des représentants du genre Astacopsidrilus et du genre Trichodrilus qui cohabitent au
titre de formes dominantes de la faune totale d'OligochĂštes dans le sous-Ă©coulement de l'Oued Makhfaman, affluent de l'Oued
N'Fis (Haut Atlas, région de Marrakech) a été réalisée sur la base notamment du calcul du nombre et de la taille des particules
sableuses ingérées. Cette analyse a révélé la plus grande capacité d'absorption de l'appareil digestif de la nouvelle espÚce de
Phreodrilidae, comparativement aux représentants du genre Trichodrilus, considérés comme des limivores sensu stricto et permis
d'aborder le comportement alimentaire de ces taxons en termes de compétitivité
Prise en Compte des Contraintes Transactionnelles dans les Services Web: ModĂ©lisation et Analyse dâEquivalence
Lâinfrastructure actuelle des services Web reste insuffisante pour une rĂ©elle prise en charge des activitĂ©s mĂ©tiers et pour la gestion des transactions transorganisationnelles. En effet, la description actuelle du comportement externe des services Web et les techniques de composition et de coordination ne garantissent pas une gestion fiable et efficace des transactions mĂ©tiers complexes, de longue durĂ©e et manipulant des donnĂ©es critiques. La compensation des opĂ©rations inachevĂ©es, pour diverses raisons, sâavĂšre, alors, inĂ©vitable. Cependant, la prise en compte des contraintes transactionnelles et la gestion de la compensation nâont pas bĂ©nĂ©ficiĂ© de tout lâintĂ©rĂȘt quâelles revĂȘtent. Dans cet article, nous nous intĂ©ressons Ă cet aspect important des environnements services Web. Nous proposons une modĂ©lisation formelle des effets transactionnels. Les protocoles de services enrichis par lâinjection du modĂšle dâeffets proposĂ© seront exposĂ©s et lâanalyse dâĂ©quivalence des services sera revue, en consĂ©quence. Nous identifierons les nouvelles classes dâĂ©quivalence des services enrichis et nous prĂ©senterons les algorithmes y affĂ©rents.Mots clĂ©s: Protocoles de services, Effets transactionnels, Compensation, Equivalence des services, Protocoles Ă effets, Equivalence Ă base d'effet
Un test biologique simple pour apprécier la toxicité de I'eau et des sédiments d'un puits. Toxicité comparée, in vitro, de quelques métaux lourds et de I'ammonium, vis-à -vis de trois genres de crustacés de la zoocénose des puits
Des études antérieures ont montré que
la richesse spécifique de la faune aquatique des puits de la région de Marrakech diffÚre de façon importante d'un puits à l'autre. Ces variations de la biodiversité des zoocénoses sont apparues corrélées avec celles de la qualité de I'eau et l'absence de stygobiontes dans certaines stations a été attribuée à la toxicité de I'eau. Afin de démontrer expérimentalement cette toxicité à l'égard de la stygofaune, la DL100 de I'eau puis celle des sédiments de 5 puits a été déterminée chez 2 genres de Crustacés stygobies fréquents dans la région, l'Amphipode Metacrangonyx spinicaudatus et I'lsopode Typhlocirolana haouzensis. Par ailleurs la CL100/48h de 4 ions métalliques lourds (Cu++, Zn++, Cd++ et Pb++) ainsi que des ions NH4+ signalés dans certains des puits a été mesurée chez les 2 Crustacés stygobies, ainsi que chez un autre lsopode non stygobie, Proasellus coxalis africanus qui abonde dans certains puits de la région. La CL100 des ions testés est 40 à 60 fois plus élevée chez Typhlocirolana que chez Metacrangonyx. La CL100 de I'ammonium est nettement plus élevée chez Proasellus que chez les deux autres Crustacés; en revanche
les Aselles sont plus sensibles que les Typhlocirolanes aux métaux lourds, notamment au cadmium, mais souvent moins sensibles que l'Amphipode. La méthodologie et ces résultats sont discutés. Ce biotest présente l'avantage de n'exiger qu'un trÚs petit nombre d'individus
(CrustacĂ©s stygobies) d'ĂȘtre relativement simple Ă mettre en
Ćuvre, et de permettre assez rapidement â en quelques jours gĂ©nĂ©ralement â de dĂ©tecter la toxicitĂ© globale des sĂ©diments ou de I'eau d'une source ou d'un puits
Assessment of Future Water Demand and Supply under IPCC Climate Change and Socio-Economic Scenarios, Using a Combination of Models in Ourika Watershed, High Atlas, Morocco
Climate change will affect the water resources system, on global and regional levels. Over the past thirty years, the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco have experienced severe droughts, which causes a decrease in water supply that affects both agriculture and the urban water system. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change and socio-economic activities on water supply and demand in the Ourika watershed (High Atlas of Morocco), then we evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management. For this, we simulate and analyze the future water situation using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP). After the model’s calibration and validation, the precipitation, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results revealed that the model’s performance, calibration and validation were found to be satisfactory. The analysis shows that the mean precipitation will decrease by 49.25% and 34.61% by 2100, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 4.2 °C (A2) and 3.6 °C (B2), and Tmin by 3.5 °C (A2) and 2.9 °C (B2) by 2100. The results also show that water demand and the unmet water demand will increase in all scenarios, the pressure on water resources will increase, leading to water scarcity. The results reveal that, under the influence of climate change, future unmet water demand is expected to reach 64 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The results demonstrate that the assessments of the proposed adaptation strategies are effective, but not sufficient to ensure water sustainability for the Ourika watershed
RĂ©ponse des macroinvertĂ©brĂ©s benthiques (Ă©phĂ©mĂ©roptĂšres, plĂ©coptĂšres, trichoptĂšres) aux pressions anthropiques dans un contexte de changement climatique sur le bassin versant de lâOurika (Haut-Atlas du Maroc)
Les changements globaux marquĂ©s par une accentuation des pressions anthropiques et climatiques ont un impact sur les Ă©cosystĂšmes lotiques et la faune aquatique. Nous avons analysĂ© leur influence sur lâĂ©volution des peuplements benthiques dâĂ©phĂ©mĂ©roptĂšres, de plĂ©coptĂšres et de trichoptĂšres (EPT) au sein du bassin versant de lâOurika, situĂ© dans le Haut-Atlas du Maroc. Lâinventaire des espĂšces recensĂ©es avant et aprĂšs 2000 rĂ©vĂšle que la richesse spĂ©cifique a augmentĂ© Ă lâOukaĂŻmeden, milieu de haute altitude, tandis quâelle a diminuĂ© Ă lâOurika milieu moyenne altitude. Ă lâOurika, la richesse spĂ©cifique en taxa EPT est passĂ©e de 37 avant 2000 Ă 24 aprĂšs 2000, soit une baisse de 35â%. Ă lâOukaĂŻmeden, la richesse spĂ©cifique en EPT est passĂ©e de 27 avant 2000 Ă 32 aprĂšs 2000, soit une augmentation de 15â%. Ces changements rĂ©sultent essentiellement de la rĂ©gression de la qualitĂ© du milieu aquatique sous la pression anthropique Ă lâOurika (eaux usĂ©es domestiques, dĂ©chets solides, remblais, commerces, dragagesâŠ). Lâhabitat aquatique est dĂ©gradĂ©, la pollution organique a augmentĂ© et la qualitĂ© biologique de lâeau a connu une forte rĂ©gression. Ă lâOukaĂŻmeden, le milieu est beaucoup moins perturbĂ© en dĂ©pit dâune activitĂ© pastorale assez importante, et du rejet de dĂ©chets solides dans le cours dâeau. Les perturbations sont surtout concentrĂ©es au sein dâune station, les autres Ă©tant relativement Ă©pargnĂ©es. Lâhabitat aquatique est favorable Ă la faune, la pollution organique est restĂ©e relativement faible et la qualitĂ© biologique de lâeau bien quâayant lĂ©gĂšrement rĂ©gressĂ© demeure favorable pour les peuplements Ă©tudiĂ©s. LâOukaĂŻmeden apparaissant comme une zone refuge pour les espĂšces, le milieu prĂ©sente un grand intĂ©rĂȘt pour la conservation
Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies
Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rherayaâs future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2â3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40â60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rherayaâs water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed