National economic and environmental development study: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan is a developing country bracing for significant economic growth and development in the future. In this regards, the country is poised to shift towards an increased reliance upon its indigenous coal reserves to fuel its development in the 2010-2050 time frame. Although this will significantly raise its projected greenhouse gas emissions, the present study has identified numerous measures which can be taken to shift this future development pathway on to a lower carbon and more climate friendly trajectory. The country, however, requires this shift to be supported through the access and transfer of appropriate technologies and finance. The ensuing “additional” financial needs for mitigation for a cleaner development future range from between U$8 billion and U$ 17 billion. These have been identified in this report along with a potential of 18% and 40% reduction of emissions between below “Business As Usual” scenario which is possible with a shift towards cleaner technologies. These clean development investments, however, need to be made in the near future as otherwise the energy future of Pakistan will get locked into the lower cost - higher carbon options. This mitigation costing estimate will, however, need to be refined and focused further as Pakistan identifies not only the specific technologies that it needs for this low carbon shift (through carrying out the “Technology Needs Assessment”) but also the programmatic, sectoral as well as project specific NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) in the near future. Pakistan is also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and faces immense associated challenges in coping with its unavoidable effects and economic implications. This study has highlighted the need to treat adaptation to climate change as a primary development issue for Pakistan. The potential impacts and sectors demanding prioritized adaptation have been identified in this study and the, associated, costs of adaptation have been estimated utilizing three diverse modeling methodologies – using GDP projections, per-capita figures and “flood” disaster modeling. The resulting adaptation cost figures range from between U$6 billion to U$ 14 billion/year that Pakistan would have to spend at an average in the 2010-2050 time frame to cope with the effects of climate change while it will be also left to, unavoidably, bear significant “residual damage” costs induced due to climate change. The top-down adaptation costing analysis applied in this report is aimed at providing a reasonable first approximation that can be refined over time as relevant and reliable local data becomes available especially from research focusing on sector specific adaptation costing. Most significantly the report reinforces the fact that the issue of climate change is, thus, not only an environmental issue challenging the country but an issue which will directly impinge upon the country’s economic, financial and development future as it deals with its extreme vulnerability to climate change. The significant climate costs identified in this study inextricably shows that climate change is an issue which Pakistan can ill afford to ignore in the future. Finally the report has identified the major financing options available for climate change related activities in Pakistan as well as the significant unilateral climate resources, U$ 4.5 billion in 2007-2009 alone, that the country is already committing to climate change without getting any global recognition for its efforts. In future, global financing will need to augment and leverage such national financial commitments. Also, as climate finance becomes increasingly available at the global level, it would be essential to enact appropriate assimilative national capacity in Pakistan to direct this finance towards nationally identified priorities as well as channelize it transparently and efficiently through consolidated financial mechanisms like a National Climate Change Fund which has been proposed through this study.climate change Pakistan

Interactions of neuropathogenic Escherichia coli K1 (RS218) and its derivatives lacking genomic islands with phagocytic Acanthamoeba castellanii and nonphagocytic brain endothelial cells

Here we determined the role of various genomic islands in E. coli K1 interactions with phagocytic A. castellanii and nonphagocytic brain microvascular endothelial cells. The findings revealed that the genomic islands deletion mutants of RS218 related to toxins (peptide toxin, alpha -hemolysin), adhesins (P fimbriae, F17-like fimbriae, nonfimbrial adhesins, Hek, and hemagglutinin), protein secretion system (T1SS for hemolysin), invasins (IbeA, CNF1), metabolism (D-serine catabolism, dihydroxyacetone, glycerol, and glyoxylate metabolism) showed reduced interactions with both A. castellanii and brain microvascular endothelial cells. Interestingly, the deletion of RS218-derived genomic island 21 containing adhesins (P fimbriae, F17-like fimbriae, nonfimbrial adhesins, Hek, and hemagglutinin), protein secretion system (T1SS for hemolysin), invasins (CNF1), metabolism (D-serine catabolism) abolished E. coli K1-mediated HBMEC cytotoxicity in a CNF1-independent manner. Therefore, the characterization of these genomic islands should reveal mechanisms of evolutionary gain for E. coli K1 pathogenicity

Thermal cycling behavior and hot corrosion performance of the plasma sprayed Er2Si2O7 coatings deposited on Cf/SiC composites

AbstractRare-earth based disilicates are promising coating materials for Cf/SiC composites. In this study, Er2Si2O7 coating was deposited on the Cf/SiC substrate by atmospheric plasma spraying using the solid-state reaction synthesized powders. Sintered Er2Si2O7 coupons derived from the synthesized powders were subjected to dilatometric studies showing the average value of 4.3ppm/°C for the coefficient of thermal expansion. The coated Cf/SiC coupons were thermally cycled between 400°C and 1500°C on a burner rig facility until failure of coating. Meanwhile, hot corrosion performance of the free standing plasma sprayed Er2Si2O7 coating coupon was evaluated by using molten vanadate salt with loading of 15mg/cm2 at 800°C. Analytical techniques such as X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were applied to study the microstructural characteristics of the powders and coatings before and after thermal cycling and hot corrosion tests. Coatings’ degradation as a result of thermal cycling and hot corrosion tests was investigated in terms of microstructure and microchemistry transformations

Relationship Between Cardiovascular Disease Pathology and Fatal Opioid and Other Sedative Overdose:A Post-Mortem Investigation and Pilot Study

Introduction: In 2019, Scotland reported the highest number of drug deaths amongst EU countries. Of the 1,264 drug deaths reported in 2019, 94% were related to polysedative use. Studies have proposed a relationship between opioid use and cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, the concomitant use of sedatives and opioids has been associated with lethal cardiopulmonary events. However, evidence is still limited for the relationship between polysedative use and cardiovascular diseases. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the association between polysedative use and the underlying cardiovascular pathologies in drug deaths. Methods: This study consisted of a post-mortem investigation of 436 drug deaths. Data extracted from post-mortem reports included socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., gender, age), cardiovascular pathologies (e.g., atherosclerosis, atheroma, and inflammation), in addition to the presence of opioids (e.g. methadone, heroin) and other substances (e.g., alcohol, benzodiazepine) in the blood of the deceased. Stepwise multiple regression models were employed to identify which substances predicted cardiovascular pathologies. Results: The presence of opioids, benzodiazepines, and alcohol in the blood of the deceased predicted overall cardiovascular disease (CVD) severity [R2 = 0.33, F (5, 430) = 39.64, p < 0.0001; adjusted R2 = 0.32, f2 = 0.49]. Positive Beta coefficients may indicate an exacerbation of CVD (B = 0.48 95% CI = 0.25, 0.70) due to the presence of opioids in the blood of the deceased. Negative associations may instead indicate a relative protective effect of alcohol (B = −0.2, 95% CI = −0.41, −0.00) and benzodiazepines (B = −0.29, 95% CI = −0.48, −0.09) on CVD. Conclusion: These findings may inform national clinical guidelines on the need to monitor individuals who abuse opioids for presence of cardiovascular disease risk factors pathologies and provide timely interventions to reduce mortality in the population.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

SARS-CoV-2 infection increases risk of intracranial hemorrhage

Peer reviewe

Should aspirin be replaced with ADP blockers or anti-GPVI to manage thrombosis?

Platelets have a pivotal role in maintaining cardiovascular homeostasis. They are kept docile by endothelial derived mediators. Aberration in haemostatic balance predisposes an individual to an elevated risk of a pro-thrombotic environment. Anti-platelet therapy has been a key component to reduce this risk. However, understanding how these medications affect the balance between activation and inhibition of platelets is critical. There is now evidence that a key antiplatelet therapy – aspirin, may not be the most efficacious medicine of choice, as it can compromise both platelet inhibition and activation pathways. In this review the rationale of aspirin as an anti-thrombotic drug has been critically discussed. This review looks at how recent published trials are asking key questions on the efficacy and safety of aspirin in countering cardiovascular diseases. There is an increasing portfolio of evidence that identifies that although aspirin is a very cheap and accessible drug, it may be used in a manner that is not always beneficial to a patient, and a more nuanced and targeted use of aspirin may increase its clinical benefit and maximize patient response. The questions around the use of aspirin raises the potential for changes in its clinical use for dual anti-platelet therapy. This highlights the need to ensure that treatment is targeted in the most effective manner, and that other anti-platelet therapies may well be more efficacious and beneficial for CVD patients in their standard and personalized approaches

A hybrid model combining neural networks and decision tree for comprehension detection

The Artificial Neural Network is generally considered to be an effective classifier, but also a “Black Box” component whose internal behavior cannot be understood by human users. This lack of transparency forms a barrier to acceptance in high-stakes applications by the general public. This paper investigates the use of a hybrid model comprising multiple artificial neural networks with a final C4.5 decision tree classifier to investigate the potential of explaining the classification decision through production rules. Two large datasets collected from comprehension studies are used to investigate the value of the C4.5 decision tree as the overall comprehension classifier in terms of accuracy and decision transparency. Empirical trials show that higher accuracies are achieved through using a decision tree classifier, but the significant tree size questions the rule transparency to a human

National economic and environmental development study: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan is a developing country bracing for significant economic growth and development in the future. In this regards, the country is poised to shift towards an increased reliance upon its indigenous coal reserves to fuel its development in the 2010-2050 time frame. Although this will significantly raise its projected greenhouse gas emissions, the present study has identified numerous measures which can be taken to shift this future development pathway on to a lower carbon and more climate friendly trajectory. The country, however, requires this shift to be supported through the access and transfer of appropriate technologies and finance. The ensuing “additional” financial needs for mitigation for a cleaner development future range from between U$8 billion and U$ 17 billion. These have been identified in this report along with a potential of 18% and 40% reduction of emissions between below “Business As Usual” scenario which is possible with a shift towards cleaner technologies. These clean development investments, however, need to be made in the near future as otherwise the energy future of Pakistan will get locked into the lower cost - higher carbon options. This mitigation costing estimate will, however, need to be refined and focused further as Pakistan identifies not only the specific technologies that it needs for this low carbon shift (through carrying out the “Technology Needs Assessment”) but also the programmatic, sectoral as well as project specific NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) in the near future. Pakistan is also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and faces immense associated challenges in coping with its unavoidable effects and economic implications. This study has highlighted the need to treat adaptation to climate change as a primary development issue for Pakistan. The potential impacts and sectors demanding prioritized adaptation have been identified in this study and the, associated, costs of adaptation have been estimated utilizing three diverse modeling methodologies – using GDP projections, per-capita figures and “flood” disaster modeling. The resulting adaptation cost figures range from between U$6 billion to U$ 14 billion/year that Pakistan would have to spend at an average in the 2010-2050 time frame to cope with the effects of climate change while it will be also left to, unavoidably, bear significant “residual damage” costs induced due to climate change. The top-down adaptation costing analysis applied in this report is aimed at providing a reasonable first approximation that can be refined over time as relevant and reliable local data becomes available especially from research focusing on sector specific adaptation costing. Most significantly the report reinforces the fact that the issue of climate change is, thus, not only an environmental issue challenging the country but an issue which will directly impinge upon the country’s economic, financial and development future as it deals with its extreme vulnerability to climate change. The significant climate costs identified in this study inextricably shows that climate change is an issue which Pakistan can ill afford to ignore in the future. Finally the report has identified the major financing options available for climate change related activities in Pakistan as well as the significant unilateral climate resources, U$ 4.5 billion in 2007-2009 alone, that the country is already committing to climate change without getting any global recognition for its efforts. In future, global financing will need to augment and leverage such national financial commitments. Also, as climate finance becomes increasingly available at the global level, it would be essential to enact appropriate assimilative national capacity in Pakistan to direct this finance towards nationally identified priorities as well as channelize it transparently and efficiently through consolidated financial mechanisms like a National Climate Change Fund which has been proposed through this study