Advances in predicting cardiovascular risk: Applying the PREVENT equations

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Heterogeneous trends in burden of heart disease mortality by subtypes in the United States, 1999-2018: observational analysis of vital statistics

Abstract Objective To describe trends in the burden of mortality due to subtypes of heart disease from 1999 to 2018 to inform targeted prevention strategies and reduce disparities. Design Serial cross sectional analysis of cause specific heart disease mortality rates using national death certificate data in the overall population as well as stratified by race-sex, age, and geography. Setting United States, 1999-2018. Participants 12.9 million decedents from total heart disease (49% women, 12% black, and 19% &lt;65 years old). Main outcome measures Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) for each heart disease subtype, and respective mean annual percentage change. Results Deaths from total heart disease fell from 752 192 to 596 577 between 1999 and 2011, and then increased to 655 381 in 2018. From 1999 to 2018, the proportion of total deaths from heart disease attributed to ischemic heart disease decreased from 73% to 56%, while the proportion attributed to heart failure increased from 8% to 13% and the proportion attributed to hypertensive heart disease increased from 4% to 9%. Among heart disease subtypes, AAMR was consistently highest for ischemic heart disease in all subgroups (race-sex, age, and region). After 2011, AAMR for heart failure and hypertensive heart disease increased at a faster rate than for other subtypes. The fastest increases in heart failure mortality were in black men (mean annual percentage change 4.9%, 95% confidence interval 4.0% to 5.8%), whereas the fastest increases in hypertensive heart disease occurred in white men (6.3%, 4.9% to 9.4%). The burden of years of potential life lost was greatest from ischemic heart disease, but black-white disparities were driven by heart failure and hypertensive heart disease. Deaths from heart disease in 2018 resulted in approximately 3.8 million potential years of life lost. Conclusions Trends in AAMR and years of potential life lost for ischemic heart disease have decelerated since 2011. For almost all other subtypes of heart disease, AAMR and years of potential life lost became stagnant or increased. Heart failure and hypertensive heart disease account for the greatest increases in premature deaths and the largest black-white disparities and have offset declines in ischemic heart disease. Early and targeted primary and secondary prevention and control of risk factors for heart disease, with a focus on groups at high risk, are needed to avoid these suboptimal trends beginning earlier in life. </jats:sec

Association of body mass index in midlife with morbidity burden in older adulthood and longevity

Importance: Abundant evidence links obesity with adverse health consequences. However, controversies persist regarding whether overweight status compared with normal body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with longer survival and whether this occurs at the expense of greater long-term morbidity and health care expenditures. Objective: To examine the association of BMI in midlife with morbidity burden, longevity, and health care expenditures in adults 65 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study at the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, with baseline in-person examination between November 1967 and January 1973 linked with Medicare follow-up between January 1985 and December 2015. Participants included 29 621 adults who were at least age 65 years in follow-up and enrolled in Medicare. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to December 2021. Exposures: Standard BMI categories. Main Outcomes and Measures: (1) Morbidity burden at 65 years and older assessed with the Gagne combined comorbidity score (ranging from -2 to 26, with higher score associated with higher mortality), which is a well-validated index based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for use in administrative data sets; (2) longevity (age at death); and (3) health care costs based on Medicare linkage in older adulthood (aged ≥65 years). Results: Among 29 621 participants, mean (SD) age was 40 (12) years, 57.1% were men, and 9.1% were Black; 46.0% had normal BMI, 39.6% were overweight, and 11.9% had classes I and II obesity at baseline. Higher cumulative morbidity burden in older adulthood was observed among those who were overweight (7.22 morbidity-years) and those with classes I and II obesity (9.80) compared with those with a normal BMI (6.10) in midlife (P \u3c .001). Mean age at death was similar between those who were overweight (82.1 years [95% CI, 81.9-82.2 years]) and those who had normal BMI (82.3 years [95% CI, 82.1-82.5 years]) but shorter in those who with classes I and II obesity (80.8 years [95% CI, 80.5-81.1 years]). The proportion (SE) of life-years lived in older adulthood with Gagne score of at least 1 was 0.38% (0.00%) in those with a normal BMI, 0.41% (0.00%) in those with overweight, and 0.43% (0.01%) in those with classes I and II obesity. Cumulative median per-person health care costs in older adulthood were significantly higher among overweight participants ($12 390 [95$10 427 to $14 354]) and those with classes I and II obesity ($23 396 [95% CI, $18 474 to$28 319]) participants compared with those with a normal BMI (P \u3c .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, overweight in midlife, compared with normal BMI, was associated with higher cumulative burden of morbidity and greater proportion of life lived with morbidity in the context of similar longevity. These findings translated to higher total health care expenditures in older adulthood for those who were overweight in midlife

Body mass index trajectories in young adulthood predict nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease in middle age: The CARDIA cohort study

Background & AimsNonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease is an epidemic. Identifying modifiable risk factors for nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease development is essential to design effective prevention programmes. We tested whether 25â year patterns of body mass index change are associated with midlife nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease.MethodsIn all, 4423 participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, a prospective populationâ based biracial cohort (age 18â 30), underwent body mass index measurement at baseline (1985â 1986) and 3 or more times over 25 years. At Year 25, 3115 had liver fat assessed by nonâ contrast computed tomography. Nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease was defined as liver attenuation â ¤40 Hounsfield Units after exclusions. Latent mixture modelling identified 25â year trajectories in body mass index per cent change (%Î ) from baseline.ResultsWe identified four distinct trajectories of BMI%Î : stable (26.2% of cohort, 25â year BMI %Π = 3.1%), moderate increase (46.0%, BMI%Π = 21.7%), high increase (20.9%, BMI%Π = 41.9%) and extreme increase (6.9%, BMI%Π = 65.9%). Y25 nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence was higher in groups with greater BMI %Î : 4.1%, 9.3%, 13.0%, and 17.6%, respectively (Pâ trend <.0001). In multivariable analyses, participants with increasing BMI%Î had increasingly greater odds of nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease compared to the stable group: OR: 3.35 (95% CI: 2.07â 5.42), 7.80 (4.60â 13.23) and 12.68 (6.68â 24.09) for moderate, high and extreme body mass index increase, respectively. Associations were only moderately attenuated when adjusted for baseline or Y25 body mass index.ConclusionsTrajectories of weight gain during young adulthood are associated with greater nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence in midlife independent of metabolic covariates and baseline or concurrent body mass index highlighting the importance of weight maintenance throughout adulthood as a target for primary nonâ alcoholic fatty liver disease prevention.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142937/1/liv13603.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142937/2/liv13603_am.pd

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes with canagliflozin according to baseline diuretic use:a post hoc analysis from the CANVAS Program

Aims The CANVAS Program identified the effect of canagliflozin on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) differed according to whether participants were using diuretics at study commencement. We sought to further evaluate this finding related to baseline differences, treatment effects, safety, and risk factor changes.Methods and results The CANVAS Program enrolled 10 142 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk. Participants were randomized to canagliflozin or placebo and followed for a mean of 188 weeks. The primary outcome was major cardiovascular events, a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary outcomes included multiple cardiovascular, renal, and safety events. In this post hoc subgroup analysis, participants were categorized according to baseline use of any diuretic. The effect on outcomes was compared using Cox proportional hazards models, while risk factor changes were compared using mixed-effect models. At baseline, 4490 (44.3%) participants were using a diuretic. Compared with those not using a diuretic, participants using a diuretic were more likely to be older (mean age +/- standard deviation, 64.3 +/- 8.0 vs. 62.5 +/- 8.3), be female (38.9% vs. 33.4%), and have heart failure (19.6% vs. 10.3%) (all P-difference &lt; 0.0001). The effect of canagliflozin on major cardiovascular events was greater for those using diuretic at baseline than for those who were not [adjusted hazard ratio 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.54-0.78) vs. adjusted hazard ratio 1.13 (95% confidence interval 0.93-1.36), P-heterogeneity &lt; 0.0001]. Changes in most risk factors, including blood pressure, body weight, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, were similar between groups (all P-difference &gt; 0.11), although the effect of canagliflozin on haemoglobin A1c reduction was slightly weaker in participants using compared with not using diuretics at baseline (-0.52% vs. -0.64%, P-heterogeneity = 0.0007). Overall serious adverse events and key safety outcomes, including adverse renal events, were also similar (all P-heterogeneity &gt; 0.07).Conclusions Participants on baseline diuretics derived a greater benefit for major cardiovascular events from canagliflozin, which was not fully explained by differences in participant characteristics nor risk factor changes.</p

Social and Psychosocial Determinants of Racial and Ethnic Differences In Cardiovascular Health: The MASALA and MESA Studies

BACKGROUND: Social and psychosocial determinants are associated with cardiovascular health (CVH). OBJECTIVES: To quantify the contributions of social and psychosocial factors to racial/ethnic differences in CVH. METHODS: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America cohorts, Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition quantified the contributions of social and psychosocial factors to differences in mean CVH score (range 0-14) in Black, Chinese, Hispanic, or South Asian compared with White participants. RESULTS: Among 7,978 adults (mean age 61 [SD 10] years, 52 % female), there were 1,892 Black (mean CVH score for decomposition analysis 7.96 [SD 2.1]), 804 Chinese (CVH 9.69 [1.8]), 1,496 Hispanic (CVH 8.00 [2.1]), 1,164 South Asian (CVH 9.16 [2.0]), and 2,622 White (CVH 8.91 [2.1]) participants. The factors that were associated with the largest magnitude of explained differences in mean CVH score were income for Black participants (if mean income in Black participants were equal to White participants, Black participants\u27 mean CVH score would be 0.14 [SE 0.05] points higher); place of birth for Chinese participants (if proportion of US-born and foreign-born individuals among Chinese adults were equivalent to White participants, Chinese participants\u27 mean CVH score would be 0.22 [0.10] points lower); and education for Hispanic and South Asian participants (if educational attainment were equivalent to White participants, Hispanic and South Asian participants\u27 mean CVH score would be 0.55 [0.11] points higher and 0.37 [0.11] points lower, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In these multiethnic US cohorts, social and psychosocial factors were associated with racial/ethnic differences in CVH

Association between gender social norms and cardiovascular disease mortality and life expectancy: an ecological study

Objective Examine the association between country-level gender social norms and (1) cardiovascular disease mortality rates; (2) female to male cardiovascular disease mortality ratios; and (3) life expectancy.Design Ecological study with the country as the unit of analysis.Setting Global, country-level data.Participants Global population of countries with data available on gender social norms as measured by the Gender Social Norms Index (developed by the United Nations Development Programme).Main outcome measures Country-level female and male age-standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rates, population age-standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rates, female to male cardiovascular disease mortality ratios, female and male life expectancy at birth. Outcome measure data were retrieved from the WHO and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to explore the relationship between gender social norms and the outcome variables.Results Higher levels of biased gender social norms, as measured by the Gender Social Norms Index, were associated with higher female, male and population cardiovascular disease mortality rates in the multivariable models (β 4.86, 95% CIs 3.18 to 6.54; β 5.28, 95% CIs 3.42 to 7.15; β 4.89, 95% CIs 3.18 to 6.60), and lower female and male life expectancy (β −0.07, 95% CIs −0.11 to −0.03; β −0.05, 95% CIs −0.10 to −0.01). These results included adjustment within the models for potentially confounding country-level factors including gross domestic product per capita, population mean years of schooling, physicians per 1000 population, year of Gender Social Norms Index data collection and maternal mortality ratio.Conclusions Our analysis suggests that higher levels of biased gender social norms are associated with higher rates of population cardiovascular disease mortality and lower life expectancy for both sexes. Future research should explore this relationship further, to define its causal role and promote public health action

Relation of Menopause With Cardiovascular Risk Factors in South Asian American Women (from the MASALA Study).

The menopausal transition is a time of accelerating risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and promoting cardiovascular health during midlife is an important period of time to prevent CVD in women. The association of menopause with cardiovascular risk factors or subclinical atherosclerosis has not previously been evaluated in South Asian American women, a population with a disproportionately higher CVD burden compared with other race/ethnic groups. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of menopause with CVD risk factors and subclinical cardiometabolic disease markers. We studied women aged 40 to 84 years from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America study. The association of self-reported menopausal status with multiple demographic and clinical variables was assessed with linear and logistic regression adjusted for age and cardiovascular health behaviors. In a secondary ("age-restricted") analysis, postmenopausal participants outside the age range of premenopausal participants were excluded. In the age-restricted sample, menopause was associated with a higher adjusted odds of hypertension (odds ratio&nbsp;=&nbsp;1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.41), and higher systolic blood pressure (β&nbsp;=&nbsp;6.34, 95% CI 0.82 to 11.87), and significantly higher subcutaneous fat area (β&nbsp;=&nbsp;42.8, 95% CI 5.8 to 91.4). No significant associations between menopause and ectopic fat deposition, coronary artery calcium, or carotid intima-media thickness were observed. In South Asian American women in the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America study, menopause was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and higher subcutaneous fat deposition. Menopausal status is an important factor to examine and address CVD risk factors