Rainfall forecast using SARIMA model along the coastal areas of Sindh Province

Rainfall forecasting is critical for economic activities such as agriculture, watershed management, and flood control. It requires mathematical modelling and simulation. This paper investigates the time series analysis and forecasting of the monthly rainfall for the Sindh coastline, Pakistan. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for the last three decades (1991-2020) and forecasting was done for the next two years. The model is based on the Box Jenkins methodology. The decomposition of time series plots into trend, seasonaland random components showed a seasonal effect. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Mann–Kendall (MK) tests showed the inherent stationarity of the rainfall data. The best SARIMA models for monthly rainfall were SARIMA (1,0,1)(3,1,1)12 and SARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 with Akaike information criterion corrected (AICC) values of 1507 and 1387, respectively. The model predictions indicate that, in the years 2021/22, July will likely have the most rainfall, followed by August and June. The diagnostic statistical test values directed that the adequacy of the models is consistent for projected monthly rainfall forecasts

Increased sea water intrusion in the vicinity of Tidal Link Drain at south Sindh (Pakistan)

The Tidal Link Drain is a man made drain which delivers the drainage water across Pateji and Cholri Dhands into the Arabian Sea via Shah Samando creek. The Tidal Link is 41 Km long from its point of juncture with Kaddan Pateji Outfall Drain (KPOD) in the North-East up to Shah Samando Creek in the South-West. The vertical tidal range in the area is about 5 m. The tidal link was designed to carry about 3,118 cusecs of drainage waters. After completion of Tidal Link Drain, sea water intrusion and high erosion/sedimentation have been noticed at the tidal link and adjacent area due to changes in the hydraulic regime in the area. The devastation caused by tropical cyclone “2A” in May, 1999 in the Indus delta has also created some drastic morphological changes in the area. This physical process creates breaches in the Tidal link drain between RD-30 and RD-125. These openings allow free exchange of water between the tidal link drain, Dhands and the Rann of Kutch. The analysis of tidal behavior, tidal current measurements and water samples collected in the study area shows that a small tidal creek type system of drainage channels has now been developed in Cholri Dhand and this system of channels is now used to flush water during ebb tide from surrounding Dhands of LBOD through Tidal Link Drain. It is observed that the LBOD can now be described as a “New River” that is forming an “Estuary”, which is an integral part of the creek system of the coastal area. The tidal link now acts as a tidal stream in which tidal fluctuations are very much visible and the sea water is now approaching the land. The main problem concerning the LBOD outfall is the increased hydraulic gradient due to seawater intrusion. The LBOD run parallel to the Indus River and discharges the saline water at the same level (sea level) in an active creek area of the Shah Samando Creek. The same altered hydraulic gradient creates very strong ebb currents in the region, which are responsible for making breaches in the tidal link drain and erosion and accretion in the Dhands

Client Satisfaction towards Quality of Health Services: An Assessment at Primary Healthcare of District Gujranwala

This survey designed to evaluate the satisfaction level and the factors that affect the patient satisfaction regarding health care delivery services with the aim to improve the services in the primary health care settings of Gujranwala. A Cross Sectional Study done on randomly selected patients attending the basic health units of Gujranwala, with more than18 years of age. Pretested structured "Liker scale questionnaire" was used for data collection. Out of total respondents, 62 (41.3%) clients were satisfied with the services provided by the basic health units of Gujranwala. The factors identified to determine patient satisfaction were accessibility of services, behavior of staff, health education, level of cleanliness, drug availability and miscellaneous services. Not a single ranked area of satisfaction noticed. Client’s occupation and income had significant relationship with the patient satisfaction level. Gender, age, and education of clients were not contributing factors; they not affect the client satisfaction level.Less than half clients were satisfied with the services provided by the basic health units. Management of health facilities needs to improve the services

Design and fabrication of a portable low-cost rice milling machine with automatic feeding mechanism

Rice is an important source of food for humans and holds higher importance, it grows on plants in a shell called a hull. To extract, the rice from its shells a rice milling machine is used. These processing machines are costly and not feasible for farmers to buy for their domestic purposes or for small-scale industries. For overcoming this problem an innovative and affordable rice mill is required, for small businesses. Not only the cost but also the machine parameters are much important. This paper is aimed to evaluate the performance of the designed small-sized model of the rice milling machine along with the analysis of the set parameters for the economic rice extraction from the hull without damaging the kernels. In the first step, a conceptual model in CAD was drawn including detailed specifications. In the second step, the design was evaluated and utilized to reproduce/ fabricate each component for a practical machine. Lastly, the machine was evaluated for its performance. Moreover, an automatic feeding system was also introduced as an innovation to reduce feeding labor and increase production. From the results, it was found that the automatic feeding system was reliable, moreover, the 3-horsepower motor was reduced to 2 horsepower for power saving. The cost of the machine was reduced from 80000Pkr to 55000Pkr. However, the rice processing speed was reduced to 100 kg/hour, from 200 kg/hour, which is aimed to be compensated via an automatic feeding mechanism

“Articulating cognizance about what to hide what not":Insights into why and when ethical leadership regulates employee knowledge-hiding behaviors

Given the dearth of research examining the distinctions across various facets of employee knowledge-hiding (KH) behaviors, there is little known about why and when leadership negatively influences playing dumb and evasive hiding but positively influences rationalized hiding. The present study fills this void by hypothesizing that employee justice orientation (JO) acts as a mediator of the associations of ethical leadership (EL) with different facets of employee KH behaviors. We also propose employee conscientiousness moderates the relationship of EL with JO and the indirect relationships of ethical leadership with distinct variants of employee KH behaviors. The results based on time-lagged data from 387 employees provide support for the hypothesized relationships. Together, our research provides a more nuanced account of the influence of leadership on employee KH behaviors that can facilitate the development of more appropriate interventions to deal with the intricate problems related to employee KH behaviors

“Articulating cognizance about what to hide what not":Insights into why and when ethical leadership regulates employee knowledge-hiding behaviors

Given the dearth of research examining the distinctions across various facets of employee knowledge-hiding (KH) behaviors, there is little known about why and when leadership negatively influences playing dumb and evasive hiding but positively influences rationalized hiding. The present study fills this void by hypothesizing that employee justice orientation (JO) acts as a mediator of the associations of ethical leadership (EL) with different facets of employee KH behaviors. We also propose employee conscientiousness moderates the relationship of EL with JO and the indirect relationships of ethical leadership with distinct variants of employee KH behaviors. The results based on time-lagged data from 387 employees provide support for the hypothesized relationships. Together, our research provides a more nuanced account of the influence of leadership on employee KH behaviors that can facilitate the development of more appropriate interventions to deal with the intricate problems related to employee KH behaviors

Optimal energy management of a campus microgrid considering financial and economic analysis with demand response strategies

An energy management system (EMS) was proposed for a campus microgrid (µG) with the incorporation of renewable energy resources to reduce the operational expenses and costs. Many uncertainties have created problems for microgrids that limit the generation of photovoltaics, causing an upsurge in the energy market prices, where regulating the voltage or frequency is a challenging task among several microgrid systems, and in the present era, it is an extremely important research area. This type of difficulty may be mitigated in the distribution system by utilizing the optimal demand response (DR) planning strategy and a distributed generator (DG). The goal of this article was to present a strategy proposal for the EMS structure for a campus microgrid to reduce the operational costs while increasing the self-consumption from green DGs. For this reason, a real-time-based institutional campus was investigated here, which aimed to get all of its power from the utility grid. In the proposed scenario, solar panels and wind turbines were considered as non-dispatchable DGs, whereas a diesel generator was considered as a dispatchable DG, with the inclusion of an energy storage system (ESS) to deal with solar radiation disruptions and high utility grid running expenses. The resulting linear mathematical problem was validated and plotted in MATLAB with mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The simulation findings demonstrated that the proposed model of the EMS reduced the grid electricity costs by 38% for the campus microgrid. The environmental effects, economic effects, and the financial comparison of installed capacity of the PV system were also investigated here, and it was discovered that installing 1000 kW and 2000 kW rooftop solar reduced the GHG generation by up to 365.34 kg CO2/day and 700.68 kg CO2/day, respectively. The significant economic and environmental advantages based on the current scenario encourage campus owners to invest in DGs and to implement the installation of energy storage systems with advanced concepts

Comparing effectiveness of two client follow-up approaches in sustaining the use of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARC) among the underserved in rural Punjab, Pakistan : a study protocol and participants' profile

Background: Pakistan observes a very high i.e. 37 percent modern contraceptive method related discontinuation rates within 12 months of their initiation. And almost 10 percent of these episodes of discontinuation happened due to the side effects or health concerns experienced by the women. Most importantly, it was noted that more than 12,000 first-level care facilities are located in the rural areas, including rural health centers, basic health units, and family welfare centers, but more than 30% of these facilities are nonfunctional. This paper presents a study protocol and participants' profiling of a prospective cohort follow-up to compare the effectiveness of household based and telephonic approaches in sustaining the use of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARC) whilst to facilitate lowering method related discontinuation and increasing switching amongst the contraceptive users. Methods: A 12-month multi-centre, non-inferiority prospective user follow-up is employed using three different study categories: a) household based follow-up; b) telephonic follow-up; and c) passive or need-based follow-up along with the hypothetical assumption that the telephonic client follow-up is not inferior to the household based follow-up by continuation rate of LARC and the telephonic follow-up is less-costly than the household based client follow-up. This follow-up will be conducted in 22 health facilities -(16 rural and 6 urban based facilities) in district Chakwal. The first two study categories will receive scheduled but different follow-up from the field workers at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month while the third one i.e. the 'passive or need-based follow-up' will serve as a control group. Using sampling software PASS 11, it was estimated to have 414 clients in each study category and around 1366 clients will be recruited to account for 10% attrition rate. Discussion: The study will help us to examine a more convenient method of effective follow-up for managing side effects, decreasing method discontinuation and increasing switching amongst users. The study information will also facilitate to develop a robust, effective and efficient mechanism for client follow-up to promote the continuation rates of LARC methods. The follow-up results and lessons learnt will be widely shared with stakeholders for their implementation and streamlining in health system

Comparing effectiveness of two client follow-up approaches in sustaining the use of long acting reversible contraceptives (LARC) among the underserved in rural Punjab, Pakistan: A study protocol and participants\u27 profile

Background: Pakistan observes a very high i.e. 37 percent modern contraceptive method related discontinuation rates within 12 months of their initiation. And almost 10 percent of these episodes of discontinuation happened due to the side effects or health concerns experienced by the women. Most importantly, it was noted that more than 12,000 first-level care facilities are located in the rural areas, including rural health centers, basic health units, and family welfare centers, but more than 30% of these facilities are nonfunctional. This paper presents a study protocol and participants\u27 profiling of a prospective cohort follow-up to compare the effectiveness of household based and telephonic approaches in sustaining the use of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARC) whilst to facilitate lowering method related discontinuation and increasing switching amongst the contraceptive users.Methods: A 12-month multi-centre, non-inferiority prospective user follow-up is employed using three different study categories: a) household based follow-up; b) telephonic follow-up; and c) passive or need-based follow-up along with the hypothetical assumption that the telephonic client follow-up is not inferior to the household based follow-up by continuation rate of LARC and the telephonic follow-up is less-costly than the household based client follow-up. This follow-up will be conducted in 22 health facilities - (16 rural and 6 urban based facilities) in district Chakwal. The first two study categories will receive scheduled but different follow-up from the field workers at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month while the third one i.e. the \u27passive or need-based follow-up\u27 will serve as a control group. Using sampling software PASS 11, it was estimated to have 414 clients in each study category and around 1366 clients will be recruited to account for 10% attrition rate.Discussion: The study will help us to examine a more convenient method of effective follow-up for managing side effects, decreasing method discontinuation and increasing switching amongst users. The study information will also facilitate to develop a robust, effective and efficient mechanism for client follow-up to promote the continuation rates of LARC methods. The follow-up results and lessons learnt will be widely shared with stakeholders for their implementation and streamlining in health system

Assessing predictors of contraceptive use and demand for family planning services in underserved areas of Punjab province in Pakistan: results of a cross-sectional baseline survey

Background: Although Pakistan was one of the first countries in Asia to launch national family planning programs, current modern contraceptive use stands at only 26% with a method mix skewed toward short-acting and permanent methods. As part of a multiyear operational research study, a baseline survey was conducted to understand the predictors of contraceptive use and demand for family planning services in underserved areas of Punjab province in Pakistan. This paper presents the baseline survey results; the outcomes of the intervention will be presented in a separate paper after the study has been completed. Method: A cross-sectional baseline household survey was conducted with randomly selected 3,998 married women of reproductive age (MWRA) in the Chakwal, Mianwali, and Bhakkar districts of Punjab. The data were analyzed on SPSS 17.0 using simple descriptive and logistic regression. Results: Most of the women had low socio-economic status and were younger than 30 years of age. Four-fifths of the women consulted private sector health facilities for reproductive health services; proximity, availability of services, and good reputation of the provider were the main predicators for choosing the facilities. Husbands were reported as the key decision maker regarding health-seeking and family planning uptake. Overall, the current contraceptive use ranged from 17% to 21% across the districts: condoms and female sterilization were widely used methods. Woman’s age, husband’s education, wealth quintiles, spousal communication, location of last delivery, and favorable attitude toward contraception have an association with current contraceptive use. Unmet need for contraception was 40.6%, 36.6%, and 31.9% in Chakwal, Mianwali, and Bhakkar, respectively. Notably, more than one fifth of the women across the districts expressed willingness to use quality, affordable long-term family planning services in the future. Conclusion: The baseline results highlight the need for quality, affordable long-term family planning services close to women’s homes. Furthermore, targeted community mobilization and behavior change efforts can lead to increased awareness, acceptability, and use of family planning and birth spacing services