Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan

Notwithstanding the level of improvement in understanding the complexities of an economy, it is now well accepted that the ultimate incidence of various policy interventions leads to varied outcomes in terms of magnitude and persistence depending upon the structure of the economy. The objective of the present study is to disentangle the relative contributions of various exogenous and domestic shocks that contribute to business cycle fluctuations in Pakistan. The study is based on the New-Keynesian Open economy model, which is an extended version of (Gali & Monacili 2005). Keating’s two-step approach (1990, 2000) is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the variables of interest. Impulse response functions, along with forecast error variance decomposition analyses, are used to gain useful insights into the understanding of the transmission mechanism of policy and non-policy shocks. It is observed that fiscal policy does matter, at least in the short-run. The interest rate shock leads to the exchange rate appreciation thereby confirming the exchange rate puzzle. In response to adverse supply shocks, the Monetary Authority responds with a monetary contraction that prolongs the recessionary periods. Furthermore, it has a limited power to control inflation as inflation in Pakistan stems from supply-side factors as well as fiscal dominance. JEL Classification: C32, E52, E62, F41 Keywords: Open Economy, New Keynesian Model, Rational Expectations, Exchange Rate Puzzl

Piecewise Arc-Length Parameterized NURBS Tool Paths Generation for 3-Axis CNC Machining of Accurate, Smooth Sculptured Surfaces

In current industrial applications many engineering parts having complex shapes are designed using sculptured surfaces in CAD system. Due to the lack of smooth motions and accurate machining of these surfaces using standard linear and circular motions in conventional CNC machines, new commercial CNC systems are equipped with parametric curve interpolation function. However, in some applications these surfaces can be very complex that are susceptible to gouging and due to the approximation of; CL-path in CAM system and path parameter in real –time, high machining accuracy, smooth kinematic and feed-rate profiles, are difficult to achieve. This dissertation focuses on developing algorithms that generate tool paths in NURBS form for smooth, high speed and accurate sculptured surface machining. The first part of the research identifies and eliminates gouge cutter location (CL) point from the tool path. The proposed algorithm uses global optimization technique (Particle Swarm Optimization) to check all the CC-points along a tool-path with high accuracy, and only gouging free CC-points are used to generate the set of valid CL-points. Mathematical models have been developed and implemented to cover most of the cutter shapes, used in the industry. In the second phase of the research, all valid CL-points along the tool-path are used to generate CL-path in B-spline form. The main contribution of this part is to formulate an error function of the offset approximation and to represent it in NURBS form to globally bound the approximation errors. Based on this error function, an algorithm is proposed to generate tool-paths in B-spline from with; globally controlled accuracy, fewer control points and low function degree, compared to its contemporaries. The proposed approach thus presents an error-bounded method for B-spline curve approximation to the ideal CL-path within the accuracy. This part of research has two components, one is for 2½- axis (pocket) and the other one is for 3-axis (surface) CNC machining. The third part deals with the problem of CL-path parameter estimation during machining in real time. Once the gouging free CL-path in NURBS form with globally controlled accuracy is produced, it is re-parameterized with approximate arc-length in the off-line stage. The main features of this work are; (1) sampling points and calculating their approximate arc-lengths within error bound by decomposing the input path into Bezier curve segments, (2) fitting the NURBS curve with approximate arc-length parameter to the sample points until the path and parameterization errors are within the tolerance, and (3) segment the curve into pieces with different feed rates if during machining the cutter trajectory errors are beyond the tolerance at highly curved regions in the NURBS tool path

Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation

Monetary policy which until recently aimed at targeting monetary aggregates has quietly given way to adjusting interest rates. Most of the Central Banks now focus on money reaction function that directly targets inflation or price level. This paper examines the way monetary policy is being conducted in the four major South Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The analysis is based on a variant of the Taylor rule framework. Using quarterly data over the period 1990Q1 to 2012Q4, the study finds that the monetary authorities in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have accommodated some degree of inflationary pressure, whereas Bangladesh has continuously smoothened interest rate while setting its monetary policy. Besides pursuing a mild monetary policy stance against inflation, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are also giving importance to foreign interest rate and real exchange rate movements to justify their relevance in monetary policy setting. However, the same has not been found to be true for Bangladesh. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E60 Keywords: Monetary Policy Rule, Central Banks, SAARC Countrie

Identification of novel anticancer terpenoids from Prosopis juliflora (Sw) DC (Leguminosae) pods

Purpose: To identify a novel source of terpenoid anticancer compounds from P. juliflora (Sw.) DC. (Leguminosae) pods as a medicinal substitute for cancer medicines.Methods: The pods were collected, dried and pulverized. The ethanol extract was prepared by maceration. Various phyto-constituents were detected in the extract by UV-VIS spectroscopy at a wavelength ranging from 200 - 800 nm. The molecular formula, chemical structure, and percent peak area of these phyto-constituents were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) was used for functional group determination of bioactive compounds.Results: P. juliflora pods were rich in tannins, carotenoid and terpenoids. Nineteen bioactive compounds were detected. Out of these, thirteen are here reported for the first time with four of them exhibiting anticancer activities, while two belong chemically to terpenoids. Furthermore, FTIR established characteristic peaks for the various biologically-active functional groups.Conclusion: The results show that P. juliflora pods is a valuable source of anticancer, antitumor and chemoprotective compounds, especially terpenoids, that can potentially be developed as alternatives to current painful and costly cancer therapies.Keywords: Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC., Anticancer terpenoids, Attenuated total reflectance-FTIR, Herbal medicin

Drug utilisation evaluation in patients with osteoarthritis in tertiary care hospital

Background: The principle aim of our study is to assess the prescribing pattern of drugs used in treatment of osteoarthritis patients. Methods: A prospective and empirical study was carried out at department of orthopaedics-Shadan teaching and general hospital, for 6 months.Results: During the study period, a total 120 patients were enrolled, of which 57% were females, 43% were males and common age group was ≥60 years. It was found that 56% of OA patient have history of trauma and 62% of obese individual contribute to occurrence of OA. It was found that subjects developed comorbidities like CV disorders which is 36%. It was found that 63% have OA for a duration of >2 years, 56% had no knowledge about their medications, 59% have co-morbidity, 61% have treatment complexity. NSAID’s, calcium, vitamin D3, glucosamine and chondroitin sulphate were the most frequently prescribed drugs in OA accounting for 50%. It was reported that 55% were adherent to OA medication, adherence to physical activity was 64%, adherence to weight loss was 62%.Conclusions: Our study manifest that majority of the patients had duration of >2 years of OA. The reasons for the uncontrolled pain was due to absence of awareness about osteoarthritis-related difficulties, drugs, low calcium diet, increased stress, obesity, and advanced age. Continuous health education, patient counselling, information about medication adherence and satisfaction at follow-ups is essential to avoid the problems

Possibilities of Regional Trade Expansion: A Link Model for Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

Econometric models are generally constructed for a specific country on the assumption that national economies are independent. In reality, this is not the case. In this paper, we have constructed prototype linkage econometric models for Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, These models are linked to each other through foreign-trade equations to explore possibilities of fruitful economic cooperation among these four countries Policy simulations, carried out to highlight the pay-off of specific policies in terms of the stated objective, show that, given the resolve of these countries to extend the area of collaboration, the prospects are by no means dim. There is also the extra bonus that the growth of GNP in the region will also be helped by mutual economic co-operation. The need for conscious policy decisions to this effect has been underscored

Synthesis, characterization, molecular modeling and anti-algal activities of a Schiff base and its m+2 complexes

In present work Four new complexes of 2-hydroxy-5-methylbenzaldehyde -N-(2-oxo-1,2-dihydro-3H-indol-3-ylidene)hydrazine have been synthesized with some transition metals, i.e. Ni+2, Cu+2 , Co+2 and Zn+2 in non-aqueous medium. Complexes were characterized by magnetic moment, conductance, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and spectroscopic investigations including infrared, ultraviolet-visible and atomic absorption spectroscopy. To support experimental characterization, quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical (QM/MM) calculations were performed. Experimental results with the support of QM and MM computations highlighted the proposition about the ligand to be bound to the metal ions in a tridentate manner through its phenolic oxygen, azomethine nitrogen and carbonyl group (C=O). On the basis of experimental and computational results, tetrahedral geometry is proposed for Cu+2 complex and distorted tetrahedral geometry is proposed for Zn+2 complex while octahedral geometries are proposed for Co+2 and Ni+2 complexes. For all compounds, anti-cyanobacterial (algicidal) activity was evaluated against three marine cyanobacteria i.e. Pseudoanabaena lonchoides, Lyngbya contorta, and Spirulina major. It was found that the metal complexes are more potent anti-cyanobacterial agents than the ligand

Sexually Transmitted Disease Syndromic Case Management Through Public Sector Facilities: Development and Assessment Study in Punjab Pakistan

Objective: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a priority health problem. We proposed a prospective study in two districts of Punjab, using an intervention package, which included guidelines and protocols on syndrome-based management of STIs, adapted in light of technical guidelines from the National AIDS Control Program and the World Health Organization. The aim of this study was to assess the operational effectiveness of STI case management guidelines and to assess factors that determine the adherence to guidelines for management of STIs at public health facilities in Pakistan. Methods: A prospective study lasting 18 months (January 2008 to June 2009), which reviewed early implementation experiences of updated case management guidelines for delivery of syndrome-based STI/reproductive tract infection care, through public-sector health care facilities. The project was implemented in two districts of Punjab, Sargodha and Jhang. A Cox regression model with stratification was done. Findings: The prevalence of STI was 26 per 100,000 patients. In women, the reported symptoms were 80% vaginal discharge and 12% abdominal pain. Forty-four percent of men had a genital ulcer and 29% of men had genital discharge. Age of participants ranged from 13 to 60 years. The study comprised 28.6% men and 71.4% women. The majority of the population attending these clinics was from rural areas (70%). The variables independently associated with adherence to guidelines were availability of male paramedic, age of patient, and type of diagnosis made. There was an important interaction (effect modification) present between the area of health facility and patient sex. Conclusion: Screening, diagnosis, and treatment costs for many STIs are expensive and thus an easier, low-cost, syndrome-based public health strategy is the adoption of the proposed STI syndrome case management guidelines

SURVEY BASE STUDY ON CURRENT TREND OF TREATMENT OF COMMUNITY-ACQUIRED PNEUMONIA IN KARACHI

Objective: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a potentially serious infection that results in various general physicians (GP) visits and hospital admission every year. The prime objective of this research was to find the current trend of treatment of community-acquired pneumonia in Karachi.Methods: It was a prospective survey conducted in all districts of Karachi. A Questionnaire was filled by distinctive specialities of doctors in an outpatient setting in Karachi. A preliminary test questionnaire was used to collect the data directly from distinctive specialities of doctors in outpatient setting in Karachi. Total 500 doctors were selected from distinct districts of Karachi with convenient random sampling.Results: Majority (33.8%) of the respondents recommended complete blood count and chest x-ray for diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia in an outpatient setting. Most (76%) of the respondents recommended nebulization for the management of community-acquired pneumonia in an outpatient setting. 31% and 25.4% of the physicians recommended clarithromycin as 1st line antibiotic therapy in adults and children for the management of a community-acquired pneumonia patients in outpatient setting.55.6% of the physicians recommended two-week duration of antibiotic therapy for the management of CAP in outpatient setting.Conclusion: This is clearly indicated by this study that deviation from the standard guideline is observed in the management of community-acquired pneumonia in Karachi. These deviations from the highly recommended guideline can results excess cost and inappropriateness of the management of the disease of community-acquired pneumonia. There is a need that the physician should take a decision of therapy according to the standard guidelines for the treatment of CAP in an outpatient setting.Â

Active Case Finding of Tuberculosis: Randomized Evaluation of Simple and Infotainment Chest Camps

BackgroundIn Pakistan, many tuberculosis (TB) cases are not reported to the national surveillance system. An active case finding strategy in the form of conventional (simple) or innovative (infotainment) chest camps can contribute to diagnosing these missed cases.ObjectiveTo compare the yield in terms of TB patients detected at a simple chest camp (SCC) versus an infotainment chest camp (ICC) in rural areas.MethodsA cluster randomized controlled trial with 2 parallel arms was conducted in 4 districts of Pakistan from June 2012 to May 2013. Rural neighborhoods (n = 318) were randomly allocated in a ratio of 1:3 to receive either SCC or ICC. Incidence of TB (all forms and sputum smear positive [SS+]) and number needed to screen (NNS) to diagnose 1 TB case were calculated. Cluster analysis was done according to intention to treat and risk ratio (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.FindingsA total of 3086 participants were tested at the SCC and 9029 at the ICC, of whom 38.5% were female. Mean age was 37.4 ± 15.9 years. Incidences of previously undiagnosed TB (all forms) for SCC and ICC were 23.6 (95% CI 20.04-27.4) and 22.1 (95% CI 20.3-24.1) per 100,000 population ('P' = .42), SS+ TB 22.5 (95% CI 19.3-26.1) and 21.6 (95% CI 19.8-23.6) ('P' = .67), respectively. NNS to diagnose 1 TB case were 260 (95% CI 234.3-289.6) and 258 (95% CI 233.3-287.9) for SCC and ICC, respectively ('P' = .9). RRs for all forms of TB and SS+ TB in SCC compared to ICC were 0.94 (95% CI 0.73-1.19) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.74-1.22) and 'P' values were .58 and .71, respectively.ConclusionsBoth types of chest camps are equally effective in active case finding of previously undiagnosed TB cases in rural areas in 2 provinces in Pakistan