The impact of emerging markets (BRIC`s) on CARICOM

This paper provides a detailed outline of the economic progress of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) and its implications for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). BRICs have been identified as four emerging markets with the ability to surpass the present G6 countries by 2050 in terms of their combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This has significant implications for developing countries in terms of their trade and investment outlook. The share of BRICs GDP in world GDP is now close to 18% and their outbound investments have increased significantly in the past decade. CARICOM economies are presently net importers from BRICs; as such this paper outlines various export opportunities for CARICOM by utilizing several trade indices and also identifies other complementary growth effects for CARICOM from the growth of BRICs.peer-reviewe

New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries

The central notion of the natural trading partner hypothesis is that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be welfare enhancing for members if there is a strong level of bilateral trade complementarity among their trade structures. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue with reference to a small developing trade bloc–the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and its trading partners. The trade intensity index model is used to assess the determinants of intra-CARICOM and extra-CARICOM trade, placing focus on trade complementarity. The results showed that intra-CARICOM trade complementarity is low and concentrated in a few primary industries which can provide a possible explanation for the persistent low levels of intra-CARICOM trade. The findings also indicate that trade complementarity is generally low between CARICOM countries and their proposed FTA partners in the European Union (EU) and North America. The best natural trading partners for CARICOM countries are then identified based on a ranking of countries from 7 regions (CARICOM, the EU, North America, Asia, Central America, Latin America and Africa)

Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement

This paper estimates the trade, revenue and welfare effects of the proposed Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-Canada FTA on CARICOM countries using a partial equilibrium model. The welfare analysis also takes into account the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) which was signed in 2008 between the CARIFORUM (CARICOM and the Dominican Republic) countries and the EU. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, trade complementarity index and transition probability matrices are employed to examine the dynamics of comparative advantage for CARICOM countries exports to Canada. The results obtained from the partial equilibrium model indicate adverse revenue and welfare effects for CARICOM member states. The results from various trade indices employed do not provide evidence to suggest that a FTA between CARICOM countries and Canada can improve trade outcomes

The price impact of extreme weather in developing countries

We examine the impact of extreme weather on consumer prices in developing countries by constructing a monthly data set of potential hurricane and flood destruction indices and linking these with consumer price data for 15 Caribbean islands. Our econometric model shows that the price impact of extreme weather events can be large. To illustrate potential welfare losses due to these price effects, we combine our estimates with price elasticities obtained from a demand system and with event probabilities for Jamaica. Our results show that while expected monthly losses are small, rare events can cause large falls in monthly welfare due to price increases

New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries

The central notion of the natural trading partner hypothesis is that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be welfare enhancing for members if there is a strong level of bilateral trade complementarity among their trade structures. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue with reference to a small developing trade bloc–the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and its trading partners. The trade intensity index model is used to assess the determinants of intra-CARICOM and extra-CARICOM trade, placing focus on trade complementarity. The results showed that intra-CARICOM trade complementarity is low and concentrated in a few primary industries which can provide a possible explanation for the persistent low levels of intra-CARICOM trade. The findings also indicate that trade complementarity is generally low between CARICOM countries and their proposed FTA partners in the European Union (EU) and North America. The best natural trading partners for CARICOM countries are then identified based on a ranking of countries from 7 regions (CARICOM, the EU, North America, Asia, Central America, Latin America and Africa)

Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement

This paper estimates the trade, revenue and welfare effects of the proposed Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-Canada FTA on CARICOM countries using a partial equilibrium model. The welfare analysis also takes into account the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) which was signed in 2008 between the CARIFORUM (CARICOM and the Dominican Republic) countries and the EU. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, trade complementarity index and transition probability matrices are employed to examine the dynamics of comparative advantage for CARICOM countries exports to Canada. The results obtained from the partial equilibrium model indicate adverse revenue and welfare effects for CARICOM member states. The results from various trade indices employed do not provide evidence to suggest that a FTA between CARICOM countries and Canada can improve trade outcomes

Factors Associated With Being Overweight or Obese in Suriname

Objective: To identify the socio-demographic risk factors that are associated with adult Body Mass Index.Methods: We apply probit and ordinal probit models to a sample of 3,803 adults aged 20 and above from the 2016/17 round of the Suriname Survey of Living Conditions.Results: Women, the elderly, and couples who are either married and/or living together are more likely to be obese or overweight. This is also true for individuals who have chronic illnesses. We also find that individuals who engage in a sport or in other forms of exercise, even if modest, have lower odds of being overweight or obese. Interestingly, our findings indicate that individuals who benefit from government social safety net programs are less likely to be associated with being overweight or obese.Conclusion: Obesity could become a serious public health issue if not addressed appropriately. Policymakers should promptly develop a national strategy to help health care systems cope with the outcomes of obesity and to tackle the risk factors that have the greatest impacts on individual Body Mass Index

Estimating the Effects of Human Capital Constraints on Innovation in the Caribbean

Human capital, as reflected in education levels and skills, and innovation is an important engine of economic growth. The Caribbean is deficient in both: lower than expected GDP growth rates are accompanied by relatively low innovation at the firm level, and the workforce is characterised by skills deficiencies and educational mismatches. In that regard, this paper exploits firm-level data covering 13 Caribbean countries to examine the extent to which innovation, a key driver of productivity growth, is affected by firms’ inability to find appropriately educated and skilled workers to fill key positions in its organizational structure, which is estimated using Probit models distinguishing between past and future innovation decisions. The econometric analysis finds that firms that have difficulty finding new skilled employees are less likely to engage in any type of innovation compared to those that can, and this is also true for decisions about future technological and non-technological innovations. Moreover, firms that face challenges finding employees with the required core and job-related skills at the managerial and professional levels are also less likely to innovate. Finally, while in-firm training is found to increase the probability of innovation, its magnitude is low

An assessment of the performance of CARICOM extraregional trade agreements: An initial scoping exercise

Despite its active embrace of trade liberalization and the maintainance of relatively open economies, CARICOM trade performance both within the region and extraregionally has been poor. The nexus between bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Partial Scope Agreements (PSAs) and preferential trade arrangements, which was intended to assist in compensating for the small size of domestic and regional markets, while providing an additional tier of trade and economic integration, has thus far failed to deliver its intended results. This paper makes this conclusion in assessing the performance of these extraregional trade agreements and sheds light on issues not often discussed.Abstract .-- I. Introduction .-- II. Examination of peculiar characteristics of sub regional economies .-- III. Key elements of CARICOM trade performance .-- IV. Challenges to export expansion .-- V. Policy prescriptions and the way forward

Sustainability of current account balances in small states

This article applies the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and panel cointegration tests to examine the sustainability of current account deficits in 17 small states over the period 1995-2016. The findings show the existence of cointegration between real exports and real imports, but with the magnitude of the long-run coefficient being less than one, which support a “weak” form of current account sustainability in small states