The mechanism of the Einstellung (set) effect: A pervasive source of cognitive bias

Copyright @ The Authors 2010The eye movements of expert players trying to solve a chess problem show that the first idea that comes to mind directs attention towards sources of information consistent with itself and away from inconsistent information. This bias continues unconsciously even when the player believes he is looking for alternatives. The result is that alternatives to the first idea are ignored. This mechanism for biasing attention ensures a speedy response in familiar situations but it can lead to errors when the first thought that comes to mind is not appropriate. We propose that this mechanism is the source of many cognitive biases from phenomena in problem solving and reasoning, to perceptual errors and failures in memory

Quantum cat maps with spin 1/2

We derive a semiclassical trace formula for quantized chaotic transformations of the torus coupled to a two-spinor precessing in a magnetic field. The trace formula is applied to semiclassical correlation densities of the quantum map, which, according to the conjecture of Bohigas, Giannoni and Schmit, are expected to converge to those of the circular symplectic ensemble (CSE) of random matrices. In particular, we show that the diagonal approximation of the spectral form factor for small arguments agrees with the CSE prediction. The results are confirmed by numerical investigations.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figure

Capacitance fluctuations causing channel noise reduction in stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley systems

Voltage-dependent ion channels determine the electric properties of axonal cell membranes. They not only allow the passage of ions through the cell membrane but also contribute to an additional charging of the cell membrane resulting in the so-called capacitance loading. The switching of the channel gates between an open and a closed configuration is intrinsically related to the movement of gating charge within the cell membrane. At the beginning of an action potential the transient gating current is opposite to the direction of the current of sodium ions through the membrane. Therefore, the excitability is expected to become reduced due to the influence of a gating current. Our stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley like modeling takes into account both the channel noise -- i.e. the fluctuations of the number of open ion channels -- and the capacitance fluctuations that result from the dynamics of the gating charge. We investigate the spiking dynamics of membrane patches of variable size and analyze the statistics of the spontaneous spiking. As a main result, we find that the gating currents yield a drastic reduction of the spontaneous spiking rate for sufficiently large ion channel clusters. Consequently, this demonstrates a prominent mechanism for channel noise reduction.Comment: 18 page

Double Exponential Instability of Triangular Arbitrage Systems

If financial markets displayed the informational efficiency postulated in the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage operations would be self-extinguishing. The present paper considers arbitrage sequences in foreign exchange (FX) markets, in which trading platforms and information are fragmented. In Kozyakin et al. (2010) and Cross et al. (2012) it was shown that sequences of triangular arbitrage operations in FX markets containing 4 currencies and trader-arbitrageurs tend to display periodicity or grow exponentially rather than being self-extinguishing. This paper extends the analysis to 5 or higher-order currency worlds. The key findings are that in a 5-currency world arbitrage sequences may also follow an exponential law as well as display periodicity, but that in higher-order currency worlds a double exponential law may additionally apply. There is an "inheritance of instability" in the higher-order currency worlds. Profitable arbitrage operations are thus endemic rather that displaying the self-extinguishing properties implied by the EMH.Comment: 22 pages, 22 bibliography references, expanded Introduction and Conclusion, added bibliohraphy reference

Extinction, Persistence, and Evolution

Extinction can occur for many reasons. We have a closer look at the most basic form, extinction of populations with stable but insufficient reproduction. Then we move on to competing populations and evolutionary suicide

Digital herders and phase transition in a voting model

In this paper, we discuss a voting model with two candidates, C_1 and C_2. We set two types of voters--herders and independents. The voting of independent voters is based on their fundamental values; on the other hand, the voting of herders is based on the number of votes. Herders always select the majority of the previous $r$ votes, which is visible to them. We call them digital herders. We can accurately calculate the distribution of votes for special cases. When r>=3, we find that a phase transition occurs at the upper limit of t, where t is the discrete time (or number of votes). As the fraction of herders increases, the model features a phase transition beyond which a state where most voters make the correct choice coexists with one where most of them are wrong. On the other hand, when r<3, there is no phase transition. In this case, the herders' performance is the same as that of the independent voters. Finally, we recognize the behavior of human beings by conducting simple experiments.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure

Quantisations of piecewise affine maps on the torus and their quantum limits

For general quantum systems the semiclassical behaviour of eigenfunctions in relation to the ergodic properties of the underlying classical system is quite difficult to understand. The Wignerfunctions of eigenstates converge weakly to invariant measures of the classical system, the so called quantum limits, and one would like to understand which invariant measures can occur that way, thereby classifying the semiclassical behaviour of eigenfunctions. We introduce a class of maps on the torus for whose quantisations we can understand the set of quantum limits in great detail. In particular we can construct examples of ergodic maps which have singular ergodic measures as quantum limits, and examples of non-ergodic maps where arbitrary convex combinations of absolutely continuous ergodic measures can occur as quantum limits. The maps we quantise are obtained by cutting and stacking

Debates: Does Information Theory Provide a New Paradigm for Earth Science? Emerging Concepts and Pathways of Information Physics

Entropy and Information are key concepts not only in Information Theory but also in Physics: historically in the fields of Thermodynamics, Statistical and Analytical Mechanics, and, more recently, in the field of Information Physics. In this paper we argue that Information Physics reconciles and generalizes statistical, geometric, and mechanistic views on information. We start by demonstrating how the use and interpretation of Entropy and Information coincide in Information Theory, Statistical Thermodynamics, and Analytical Mechanics, and how this can be taken advantage of when addressing Earth Science problems in general and hydrological problems in particular. In the second part we discuss how Information Physics provides ways to quantify Information and Entropy from fundamental physical principles. This extends their use to cases where the preconditions to calculate Entropy in the classical manner as an aggregate statistical measure are not met. Indeed, these preconditions are rarely met in the Earth Sciences due either to limited observations or the far-from-equilibrium nature of evolving systems. Information Physics therefore offers new opportunities for improving the treatment of Earth Science problems.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Risks, alternative knowledge strategies and democratic legitimacy: the conflict over co-incineration of hazardous industrial waste in Portugal.

The decision to incinerate hazardous industrial waste in cement plants (the socalled ‘co-incineration’ process) gave rise to one of the most heated environmental conflicts ever to take place in Portugal. The bitterest period was between 1997 and 2002, after the government had made a decision. Strong protests by residents, environmental organizations, opposition parties, and some members of the scientific community forced the government to backtrack and to seek scientific legitimacy for the process through scientific expertise. The experts ratified the government’s decision, stating that the risks involved were socially acceptable. The conflict persisted over a decade and ended up clearing the way for a more sustainable method over which there was broad social consensus – a multifunctional method which makes it possible to treat, recover and regenerate most wastes. Focusing the analysis on this conflict, this paper has three aims: (1) to discuss the implications of the fact that expertise was ‘confiscated’ after the government had committed itself to the decision to implement co-incineration and by way of a reaction to the atmosphere of tension and protest; (2) to analyse the uses of the notions of ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty’ in scientific reports from both experts and counter-experts’ committees, and their different assumptions about controllability and criteria for considering certain practices to be sufficiently safe for the public; and (3) to show how the existence of different technical scientific and political attitudes (one more closely tied to government and the corporate interests of the cement plants, the other closer to the environmental values of reuse and recycling and respect for the risk perception of residents who challenged the facilities) is closely bound up with problems of democratic legitimacy. This conflict showed how adopting more sustainable and lower-risk policies implies a broader view of democratic legitimacy, one which involves both civic movements and citizens themselves