Ocean temperature and salinity components of the Madden-Julian oscillation observed by Argo floats

New diagnostics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) cycle in ocean temperature and, for the first time, salinity are presented. The MJO composites are based on 4 years of gridded Argo float data from 2003 to 2006, and extend from the surface to 1,400 m depth in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The MJO surface salinity anomalies are consistent with precipitation minus evaporation fluxes in the Indian Ocean, and with anomalous zonal advection in the Pacific. The Argo sea surface temperature and thermocline depth anomalies are consistent with previous studies using other data sets. The near-surface density changes due to salinity are comparable to, and partially offset, those due to temperature, emphasising the importance of including salinity as well as temperature changes in mixed-layer modelling of tropical intraseasonal processes. The MJO-forced equatorial Kelvin wave that propagates along the thermocline in the Pacific extends down into the deep ocean, to at least 1,400 m. Coherent, statistically significant, MJO temperature and salinity anomalies are also present in the deep Indian Ocean

Prevalence and correlates of 30-day suicidal ideation and intent: Results of the South African National Student Mental Health Survey

Background. Although suicide prevention is recognised as a priority among university students in South Africa (SA), it is unclear what proportion of students require urgent indicated interventions and what the characteristics are of these students. Objective. To assess the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of 30-day suicidal ideation, frequency of ideation and self-reported intention to act on ideation in the next year among a national sample of SA university students. Methods. Self-report cross-sectional data were collected online from students (N=28 268) at 17 universities across SA as part of the national student mental health survey. Students reported suicidal ideation in the past 30 days, frequency of ideation and intention to act on ideation in the next year. Data were weighted within institutions by gender and population group, and across the four main types of universities (historically white, historically disadvantaged, technical and distance learning) to correct for response rate discrepancies. Prevalence was estimated with these weighted in the total sample and across types of universities. Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to investigate associations of sociodemographic characteristics with ideation and intention to act on suicidal ideation. Results are reported as relative risks (RRs) with design-based 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results. Thirty-day prevalence of suicidal ideation was 24.4% (standard error (SE) 0.3), with 2.1% (SE 0.1) and 4.1% (SE 0.1), respectively, reporting suicidal ideation all/almost all the time, or most of the time. A total of 1.5% (SE 0.1) of respondents reported being very likely to act on their suicidal ideation, while 3.9% (SE 0.2) were somewhat likely, 8.7% (SE 0.2) were not very likely and 85.8 (SE 0.5) either reported no suicidal ideation or that they were not at all likely to act on this ideation. Risk of suicidal ideation with high intent in the total sample was elevated among females (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3 - 2.7) and gender non-conforming students (RR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4 - 13.0) relative to males, black African students compared with white students (RR 3.6, 95% CI 1.9 - 7.1), students whose parents did not progress to secondary school compared with students whose parents had a university education (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 - 2.5) and sexual minority students compared with heterosexual students (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3 - 2.6). Among students with 30-day ideation (controlling for frequency of ideation), only two of these predictors of high intent remained significant: identifying as black African (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4 - 5.1), and having parents with less than secondary education (RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0 - 2.1). Conclusion. Scalable suicide prevention interventions are needed to reach the large number of SA students who report suicidal ideation with intent

ISO observations of V723 Cas and other classical novae in outburst

The ISO mission gave us a unique opportunity to follow the evolution of nova eruptions in detail in the infrared, and there was an active ISO target-of-opportunity programme to observe novae in eruption. Many of the ISO observations were near-simultaneous with ground-based observations, giving wavelength coverage over 100 octaves - another unique feature of this programme. This paper gives an overview of these observations and describes target-of-opportunity observations of the nova V723 Cas (1995), carried out with the SWS and LWS over a period of some 600 days

Photosynthesis dependent acidification of perialgal vacuoles in theParamedum bursaria/Chlorella symbiosis. Visualization by monensin

After treatment with the carboxylic ionophore monensin theChlorella containing perialgal vacuoles of the greenParamecium bursaria swell. TheParamecium cells remain motile at this concentration for at least one day. The swelling is only observed in illuminated cells and can be inhibited by DCMU. We assume that during photosynthesis the perialgal vacuoles are acidified and that monensin exchanges H+ ions against monovalent cations (here K+). In consequence the osmotic value of the vacuoles increases. The proton gradient is believed to drive the transport of maltose from the symbiont into the host. Another but light independent effect of the monensin treatment is the swelling of peripheral alveoles of the ciliates, likewise indicating that the alveolar membrane contains an active proton pump

Dopamine transporter (DAT1) and dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4) genotypes differentially impact on electrophysiological correlates of error processing

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Modeling Molecular-Line Emission from Circumstellar Disks

Molecular lines hold valuable information on the physical and chemical composition of disks around young stars, the likely progenitors of planetary systems. This invited contribution discusses techniques to calculate the molecular emission (and absorption) line spectrum based on models for the physical and chemical structure of protoplanetary disks. Four examples of recent research illutrate these techniques in practice: matching resolved molecular-line emission from the disk around LkCa15 with theoertical models for the chemistry; evaluating the two-dimensional transfer of ultraviolet radiation into the disk, and the effect on the HCN/CN ratio; far-infrared CO line emission from a superheated disk surface layer; and inward motions in the disk around L1489 IRS.Comment: 6 pages, no figures. To appear in "The Dense Interstellar Medium in Galaxies", Procs. Fourth Cologne-Bonn-Zermatt-Symposiu

Typology of adults diagnosed with mental disorders based on socio-demographics and clinical and service use characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mental disorder is a leading cause of morbidity worldwide. Its cost and negative impact on productivity are substantial. Consequently, improving mental health-care system efficiency - especially service utilisation - is a priority. Few studies have explored the use of services by specific subgroups of persons with mental disorder; a better understanding of these individuals is key to improving service planning. This study develops a typology of individuals, diagnosed with mental disorder in a 12-month period, based on their individual characteristics and use of services within a Canadian urban catchment area of 258,000 persons served by a psychiatric hospital.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From among the 2,443 people who took part in the survey, 406 (17%) experienced at least one episode of mental disorder (as per the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)) in the 12 months pre-interview. These individuals were selected for cluster analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analysis yielded four user clusters: people who experienced mainly anxiety disorder; depressive disorder; alcohol and/or drug disorder; and multiple mental and dependence disorder. Two clusters were more closely associated with females and anxiety or depressive disorders. In the two other clusters, males were over-represented compared with the sample as a whole, namely, substance abuses with or without concomitant mental disorder. Clusters with the greatest number of mental disorders per subject used a greater number of mental health-care services. Conversely, clusters associated exclusively with dependence disorders used few services.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study found considerable heterogeneity among socio-demographic characteristics, number of disorders, and number of health-care services used by individuals with mental or dependence disorders. Cluster analysis revealed important differences in service use with regard to gender and age. It reinforces the relevance of developing targeted programs for subgroups of individuals with mental and/or dependence disorders. Strategies aimed at changing low service users' attitude (youths and males) or instituting specialised programs for that particular clientele should be promoted. Finally, as concomitant disorders are frequent among individuals with mental disorder, psychological services and/or addiction programs must be prioritised as components of integrated services when planning treatment.</p

Extending basic principles of measurement models to the design and validation of Patient Reported Outcomes

A recently published article by the Scientific Advisory Committee of the Medical Outcomes Trust presents guidelines for selecting and evaluating health status and health-related quality of life measures used in health outcomes research. In their article, they propose a number of validation and performance criteria with which to evaluate such self-report measures. We provide an alternate, yet complementary, perspective by extending the types of measurement models which are available to the instrument designer. During psychometric development or selection of a Patient Reported Outcome measure it is necessary to determine which, of the five types of measurement models, the measure is based on; 1) a Multiple Effect Indicator model, 2) a Multiple Cause Indicator model, 3) a Single Item Effect Indicator model, 4) a Single Item Cause Indicator model, or 5) a Mixed Multiple Indicator model. Specification of the measurement model has a major influence on decisions about item and scale design, the appropriate application of statistical validation methods, and the suitability of the resulting measure for a particular use in clinical and population-based outcomes research activities

The influence of age on the female/male ratio of treated incidence rates in depression

BACKGROUND: Poor data exist on the influence of psychosocial variables on the female/male ratio of depression because of the small number of cases and the resulting limited numbers of variables available for investigation. For this investigation a large number of first admitted depressed patients (N = 2599) was available which offered the unique opportunity to calculate age specific sex ratios for different marital and employment status categories. METHODS: Age and sex specific population based depression rates were calculated for first ever admissions for single year intervals. Moving averages with interpolated corrections for marginal values in the age distribution were employed. RESULTS: For the total group the female/male ratio of depression showed an inverted U-shape over the life-cycle. This pattern was influenced by the group of married persons, which showed a sex-ratio of 3:1 between the age of 30–50, but ratios of around 1:1 at younger and older ages. For not married persons the female/male ratio was already around 2:1 at the age of 18 and rose to 2.5:1 in mid-life and declined to 1 at around 55. The almost parallel decline of depression rates in employed men and women resulted in a female/male ratio of about 2:1 from age 18 to age 50 and became 1 after the age of 60. The female/male ratio among the not employed was about 1, in mid-life it became negative. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses show that the gender-gap in first admitted depressed patients is age dependent and that psychosocial factors modify the sex ratio