Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among expertsâ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard deviation of a random variable using dispersion among expertsâ forecasts. We test this methodology using three datasets, demand data at item level, sales data at firm level for retailers, and sales data at firm level for manufacturers. We show that the standard deviation of a random variable (demand and sales for our datasets) is positively correlated with dispersion among expertsâ forecasts. Further we use longitudinal datasets with sales forecasts made 3-9 months before earnings report date for retailers and manufacturers to show that the effects of dispersion and scale on standard deviation of forecast error are consistent over time.Operations Management Working Papers Serie

Complexities of X chromosome inactivation status in female human induced pluripotent stem cells—a brief review and scientific update for autism research

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) allow researchers to make customized patient-derived cell lines by reprogramming noninvasively retrieved somatic cells. These cell lines have the potential to faithfully represent an individual’s genetic background; therefore, in the absence of available human brain tissue from a living patient, these models have a significant advantage relative to other models of neurodevelopmental disease. When using human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) to model X-linked developmental disorders or inherited conditions that undergo sex-specific modulation of penetrance (e.g., autism spectrum disorders), there are significant complexities in the course and status of X chromosome inactivation (XCI) that are crucial to consider in establishing the validity of cellular models. There are major gaps and inconsistencies in the existing literature regarding XCI status during the derivation and maintenance of hiPSCs and their differentiation into neurons. Here, we briefly describe the importance of the problem, review the findings and inconsistencies of the existing literature, delineate options for specifying XCI status in clonal populations, and develop recommendations for future studies

Correlates of Social, Demographic and Behavioral Factors affecting Adolescent Sexuality in a Traditional Society in India: Perspectives and Challenges

Background: Adolescent risk behavior is a major concern.Objectives: The study assessed the effect of school background, personal, social and other deviant behavior on school going adolescent sexual behavior. Material and Methods: The sample covered 3069 randomly selected adolescents (students) from 9th to 12th standard in various governments, private and missionary run schools from two districts namely; Aizawl being state capital and Champhai being distant under developed district.Summary: School background, leisure and entertainment practices, influence of taking alcohol, tobacco, drug, peer influence were found to be the major risk factor for indulgence in unsafe sex practices among adolescents. About 10% accepted involvement in premarital sex and majority of them (70%) of them had premarital sex between age group 15-19 years. The schools lacked in organizing awareness program and counseling activities on consequences of adolescent sex. The ARSH Program needs to synergize with school health program for desired results. Conclusions: Adolescent sexual risk behavior is a part of overall deviant behavior and can be managed in holistic manner

Postmastectomy chest wall radiation of left-sided carcinoma breast - a dosimetric comparison between electrons and photons

Background: For carcinoma breast patients requiring post mastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT), tangential photon beam (PB) is commonly used technique. The physical nature of electrons results in sharp dose fall off and reduces organs at risk (OAR) doses. Aim of the present study is to compare the coverage of chest wall and doses received by OARs – heart and lung between electron and photon beam plans in left sided breast cancer patients requiring PMRT.Methods: This study was done in 22 left sided carcinoma breast patients treated at GSL Medical College between May to December 2017. Both tangential PB plans and electron beam (EB) plans were generated on simulation computed tomography (CT) for each patient and both plans were compared. A dose of 50 Gy was prescribed to planning target volume (PTV) in 25 fractions.Results: The PB plans provided superior homogeneity index (HI) and conformity index CI compared to the EB plans (p<0.05). There was significant difference in favour of electron-beam plans for mean heart dose (p=0.0312), V25 Gy (p=0.029), V45 Gy (p=0.001) and V20 Gy of left lung (p=0.042). There was no significant difference in mean lung dose.Conclusions: Dosimetric data from this study suggests that PMRT with the electron beam can reduce doses to the heart and left lung with acceptable target coverage. It needs further research in the clinical setting

Topochemical engineering of composite hybrid fibers using layered double hydroxides and abietic acid

Topochemical engineering of hybrid materials is an efficient way of synthesizing hydrophobic and highly tensile fiber composites by utilizing the intermolecular hydrogen bonds in natural materials. These materials include wood pulp fibers, abietic acid (resin acid) and inexpensive metal salts. In this work, a hybrid composite was created using bleached and unbleached kraft pulp fibers as cellulose platform. In situ co-precipitation of layered double hydroxide (LDH) was performed to grow LDH crystals on the surface of the cellulose fibers, followed by the immobilization of abietic acid (AA) on LDH-grafted cellulose. Here we aimed to benefit from the hydrogen bonding between -OH groups of cellulose and LDH, and the -COOH groups of AA to obtain charge-directed assembly of one material on the other material. Thus, composite hybrid fibers (C-HF) were produced and then characterized by optical (CAM), spectroscopic (XRD, IR) and microscopic techniques (SEM) to determine their average length and distribution, structure and purity, bonding, and morphology. These fibers further were tested for water contact angle (hydrophobicity), oil absorption (lipophilicity), tensile strength and ISO brightness measurements. The performance of C-HF was compared with unmodified reference fibers (REF), fibers composed with only AA (C-F) and LDH-hybridized fibers (HF). The results revealed a variety of correlations between materials and their properties due to characteristic surface morphology, functional groups, hydrogen bonding and natural co-materials such as lignin and hemicelluloses. Attractive and repulsive van der Waals forces between material entities play a crucial role in the resulting properties

Growth of Silicon- Germanium Alloy Layers

Heteroepitaxy techniques for the growth of group IV binary alloys, in particular, SiGe, SiC, GeC and SiSn films are reviewed. Deposition of heteroepitaxial films using various reactors like molecular beam epitaxy, gas source molecular beam epitaxy, and different chemical vapour deposition techniques are compared. Issues related to heteroepitaxial film deposition, such as critical layer thickness are examined. Growth of strained silicon on relaxed SiGe buffer layers, poly-SiGe film and hydrogenated amorphous SiGe (a-SiGe:H) film is also reviewe

Phi-Meson Production at RHIC, Strong Color Fields and Intrinsic Transverse Momenta

We investigate the effects of strong color fields and of the associated enhanced intrinsic transverse momenta on the phi-meson production in ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions at RHIC. The observed consequences include a change of the spectral slopes, varying particle ratios, and also modified mean transverse momenta. In particular, the composition of the production processes of phi mesons, that is, direct production vs. coalescence-like production, depends strongly on the strength of the color fields and intrinsic transverse momenta and thus represents a sensitive probe for their measurement.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Cellular and molecular characterization of multiplex autism in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived neurons

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder with pronounced heritability in the general population. This is largely attributable to the effects of polygenic susceptibility, with inherited liability exhibiting distinct sex differences in phenotypic expression. Attempts to model ASD in human cellular systems have principally involved rare de novo mutations associated with ASD phenocopies. However, by definition, these models are not representative of polygenic liability, which accounts for the vast share of population-attributable risk. Methods: Here, we performed what is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to model multiplex autism using patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) in a family manifesting incremental degrees of phenotypic expression of inherited liability (absent, intermediate, severe). The family members share an inherited variant of uncertain significance (VUS) in Results: cExN neurospheres from the two affected individuals were reduced in size, compared to those derived from unaffected related and unrelated individuals. This reduction was, at least in part, due to increased apoptosis of cells from affected individuals upon initiation of cExN neural induction. Likewise, cIN neural progenitor cells from affected individuals exhibited increased apoptosis, compared to both unaffected individuals. Transcriptomic analysis of both cExN and cIN neural progenitor cells revealed distinct molecular signatures associated with affectation, including the misregulation of suites of genes associated with neural development, neuronal function, and behavior, as well as altered expression of ASD risk-associated genes. Conclusions: We have provided evidence of morphological, physiological, and transcriptomic signatures of polygenic liability to ASD from an analysis of cellular models derived from a multiplex autism family. ASD is commonly inherited on the basis of additive genetic liability. Therefore, identifying convergent cellular and molecular phenotypes resulting from polygenic and monogenic susceptibility may provide a critical bridge for determining which of the disparate effects of rare highly deleterious mutations might also apply to common autistic syndromes

Balancing serendipity and reproducibility: Pluripotent stem cells as experimental systems for intellectual and developmental disorders

Reprogramming of somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and their differentiation into neural lineages is a revolutionary experimental system for studying neurological disorders, including intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDDs). However, issues related to variability and reproducibility have hindered translating preclinical findings into drug discovery. Here, we identify areas for improvement by conducting a comprehensive review of 58 research articles that utilized iPSC-derived neural cells to investigate genetically defined IDDs. Based upon these findings, we propose recommendations for best practices that can be adopted by research scientists as well as journal editors

The gender perspective in climate change and global health

Background: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms &#x2018;climate change,&#x2019; &#x2018;health,&#x2019; &#x2018;gender,&#x2019; and &#x2018;policy.&#x2019; Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study&#x0027;s viewpoint. Results: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health